Granite State District Predictions: The Genesis

[NEpredictions]

Personal Introduction
I am not Looking Forward, but want to bring his style of predictions on a smaller level to the region I’m familiar with: New England. I’ve been involved with FIRST in New England for over a dozen years and plan to bring history and insight to my event-by-event predictions. My predictions will be in the form of an Event Summary, Locks (teams that will compete for top awards, make elims, and likely be key contributors in semifinals), Tips (teams that are likely to make significant contributions in elims), Sleepers (teams that are likely to perform well, but are unexpected), Dark Horses (teams that may be counted out for one reason or another, but are likely to perform well), and Honorable Mentions. This is not meant to be a comprehensive list, instead highlighting some of the top teams.

Week 1, Granite State District: The Genesis
Event Summary
The first week of game-play is always interesting, as teams begin to see how their perceptions of the game from kickoff begin to shift or solidify… but this will be not only the beginning of a new competition season, but also the beginning of a new era in New England as the District System is ushered in!

Expect unusually good autonomous programs for Week 1, very physical matches, and every-increasing defense as teams learn their capabilities and as the strong offensive teams are identified. Teams will often struggle to agree on strategy before the match, which will be complicated by being forced to make adjustments during the match… some matches will fall into strategic disarray, leaving unsatisfying scores on the screen afterward. Nevertheless, many alliances will successfully rack up assists or truss-catch combos as teams identify their own strengths. Even alliances with relatively limited capabilities may put up surprisingly large scores due to a combination of autonomous prowess, complementary skills, effective strategy, and solid execution.

Besides the challenges inherent to playing a new game for the first time, this will be the first exposure to the district system for 39 teams. 12 qualification matches with an average break of only 5 matches will leave drive teams struggling to strategize in-time and pit crews laboring to keep the robot working. Reliable and simple robots will likely reign over more complex or less robust designs in this event that may prove to be a war of attrition.

While the Granite State District will be the heir in name of the Granite State Regional, it will have a unique team make-up… Lacking main-stays such as 58, 78, 126, 151, 175, 1058, 1073, 1153, and 3467, the event will now welcome teams including 177, 1474, 2084, 2370, 2423, 2621, 2876, 3780, and 3958.

GSD looks to have a broader middle-tier than many events (as GSR typically did), but the top-tier may be smaller than typical. This may produce very interesting elimination matches, as the game dynamics will enable a captain from any seed to field a strong alliance if they pick partners that maximize the individual teams’ skills, while subtly hiding weaknesses. Several alliances will be assembled well, but expect the final litmus test to be immunity to defense. One well-composed alliance will rise to the top by scoring effectively despite strong defense played against them.

Locks
177 hasn’t competed at an official competition in New Hampshire during the lifespan of many current FRC students, but don’t expect the team that competed on Einstein from 2006 through 2011 to struggle to find their bearings. They lost in two up-sets at WPI and Connecticut last year… they will work hard to avoid a similar fate in 2014. Their robot certainly looks to be a strong contender with a quick pickup, consistent launcher, and potential for reliable catching. A team with their skills should be able to do well in both qualifications and eliminations.

1519 is coming off their first Einstein appearance; they were picked to be the third robot on the alliance, and came only one win away from being crowned World Champions! 1519 has consistently performed well on the regional level, but they typically start out slow in their first event… if they can start strong on Friday morning, expect them to be a tremendous force throughout the event. If their robot is struggling on Friday morning, expect them to scrape their way into eliminations.

131, one of the other perennial contenders at the Granite State Regional, has won Chairmans’ (2013), Winners (2012), Regional Finalists (2011) in recent years and has ranked among the top 3 in OPR at Granite State in the past three years. They usually come out of the gate strong; watch for them to do so again. Whether or not they will make it through the semi-finals will be most dependent on who rounds out their alliance on Saturday afternoon.

2648 is travelling down from Maine to attend Granite State this year, competing in NH for the first time since their rookie season, 2008. They have rapidly solidified themselves as one of New England’s best with very strong seasons in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Last year they won the Pine Tree event and competed well at both CMP and IRI. They are a strong team on and off the field, having impacted FRC in Maine tremendously and having also won EI in 2012 and 2013. Expect them to do well in qualifications and go on to play well into eliminations.

Tips
885 leads the pack of “Tips,” having competed very well at Granite State the past two years, with OPRs in the top 5 and Semi-Finalist and Finalist finishes. They have never competed at two events before, so expect 885 to benefit from the advent of the district system. They usually do well by competing with a complete robot at Week 1 events; if their last two seasons are enough to go off definitely expect 885 to captain or be picked in the first 4 slots. If they continue to build off the last two years, expect them to find a way into the Finals.

172 merits recognition, having been an elimination-caliber team for many years. Last year was a standout year though, in which they were the 1st round pick of the Finalist alliance at the Granite State Regional and then were the #3 pick overall at Pine Tree. They attended CMP and posted the highest OPR of their season, ranking them in the top half of teams attending CMP, despite going unpicked. If they maintain their 2013 form, watch for them to be a key-contributor on a strong alliance. They won EI last year at Granite State; expect them to again be in the running for this prestigious award.

3609 had a break-out season last year, winning the Granite State Regional as the 16th pick and then captaining the #8 alliance at Pine Tree, but losing to the offensive juggernaut that was the #1 alliance. Watch out for this younger team, as they try to prove their 2013 campaign was simply the beginning, not a fluke.

138 has also competed at the elimination-level for many years, having made elims in 5 of their last 6 events (Granite State, North Carolina, and DC in 2011-2013). Their OPR has consistently put them in the teens and single-digit rankings for those events, but this year they will look to go one step further: despite making elims 4 times since 2011, they didn’t make it out of the quarter-finals at any of those events. Lookout for a driven 138 that will be trying to push through to at least the semi-finals.

811 struggled mightily last year, despite a solid history of elimination-caliber robots. They seem to have bounced back, as they won Week Zero in Merrimack, NH with their very strong offensive partner, 319. They acted as the inbounder, acquiring the ball and trussing it to 319. Their strategy minimized their weakness: acquiring with their claw. If they already improved their ball acquisition, watch for them to be a captain or 1st round pick, otherwise expect them to again fill specific roles successfully, contributing to their alliance’s success.

Sleepers
3958 is only in their third year, but they are a team to watch. They got to a slow start last season at WPI, missing elims and going 5-7, but in Boston (2012 & 2013) they went 15-5 in quals, and found themselves as #4 captain and #2 pick respectively. Both times they finished in the semi-finals, with an especially close loss last year. They are well-decorated despite their short history (Creativity, Rookie Seed, Judges Award, WFFA) and mentored by the famed Joe Johnson, who also led Team Boom Done in the 2014 Ri3D. Their success will almost solely come down to whether or not their robot is ready this weekend. If ready, expect 3958 to be competing with the best in Nashua.

3780 had a breakout year in 2013. They ranked 9th in Boston, but ended up captaining the 5th seeded alliance. They were clearly prepared to captain though, as they assembled a powerhouse alliance that upset the #4 –seeded alliance, and went toe-to-toe against the champion alliance. At Battlecry they again lost in the semi-finals to the champion alliance. This weekend, 3780 will try to prove their 2013 campaign was anything but a fluke.

Dark Horse
95 has performed at a middling-level in recent years, missing eliminations about as often as they make them. Do not underestimate their potential this year though, as they were successful at Week Zero despite various mechanical glitches. 95 displayed a robot that can easily acquire, catch, and pass, which will enable them to very effectively supplement any team. They may not seed well depending on how qualification strategy and match schedule shake out, but they will be a tremendous asset to any elimination alliance. Expect them to be a 1st-round pick and key contributor.

Honorable mentions:
133, 1517, 1922, 1831, and 4473.

[Jay O'Donnell]

I LOVE this idea. New England districts are gonna be a lot of fun and whoever is writing this clearly knows what they're talking about with New England teams. The only major team kept off this list for me was 4473 as a sleeper. One of the most underrated rookie teams last year deserves a shoutout. You don't become a 5th seed alliance captain by doing nothing. I agreed with all of your picks and I can't wait to see how this event plays out.

[dag0620]

This is awesome! I'm excited to be following the NE action throughout the season, and it's awesome to have our own "Looking Forward" to go along with that. Thanks so much for doing this!

As for GSD, I won't be there in person, but I'm looking forward to checking out all the epic action on the webcast.

[Nathan Streeter]

Glad to see some detailed predictions for NE events, even if they aren't from LF! It's definitely hard to believe we made it all the way to Einstein, within one match of gold last year...

Should definitely be a great weekend of robots!

[Chris is me]

First I will say that you clearly put a lot of effort and critical thought into this, and that is cool. That being said, I think there are some inaccuracies in the post and your information isn't great. The heavy reliance on OPR as a metric for quality is concerning as well, especially considering how terrible OPR will be this year.

177 ... don’t expect the team that competed on Einstein from 2006 through 2011 to struggle to find their bearings.

Not to knock 177, I love the team, I'm a big fan, but it's odd that you say this when 177 has a long history of peaking at their second event. At WPI in 2013, while they were definitely one of the best teams there, they dealt with a non-working climber, a hopper that would jam if a disc entered upside down, and a high center of gravity hampering maneuverability. They improved dramatically at Connecticut. In 2012, they really hit their groove when they upgraded their shooter. In 2010 they had durability problems across the entire regional and even at Championships. When you add that 177 missed their Week Zero for the first time in what seems like forever, I think it would be more reasonable to say they are a strong contender for #1 seed / regional win *if* they find their bearings.

1519 has consistently performed well on the regional level, but they typically start out slow in their first event…

1519's first event in 2013: Semi-Finalists
1519's first event in 2012: Finalists (only lost because some stupid team with bison horns blew a sidecar...)
1519's first event in 2011: Winners
1519's first event in 2010: Winners

If anything, 1519 is one of the most consistently good-at-first-event teams in the entire district. Did you get 177 and 1519 backwards?

172 merits recognition, having been an elimination-caliber team for many years.

172 did not make the eliminations in 2012, made the quarters as a low seed captain in 2011 and 2010, and missed the eliminations in 2009 and 2008. Until 2013 they had not advanced past the quarterfinals at an official event since 2007. I'm not saying 172 is going to be bad this year, but "elimination caliber team for many years" is a shaky statement.

3780 had a breakout year in 2013. They ranked 9th in Boston, but ended up captaining the 5th seeded alliance. They were clearly prepared to captain though, as they assembled a powerhouse alliance that upset the #4 –seeded alliance, and went toe-to-toe against the champion alliance.

A lot of the credit you've given 3780 goes to 229. Once 3780 told 229 they were picking them, the team effectively gave 229 control of the alliance and let them do anything it took to win the event. Their second pick was from 229's whiteboard, 229 mentors rebuilt parts of their robot throughout the eliminations, and strategy was also dictated by 229. 3780 did a great job on defense and helped the alliance out significantly, though. They benefited from an easy qual schedule and made the most of it.

As for the actual predictions, I think having four "locks" kind of dilutes the meaning of the term for such a small event. I love 3609 (duct tape!) but having them as a tip for essentially using a drive base well is a bit of a stretch.

Overall, you've touched on the major players of the event and provided a solid outline for teams competing. You've just got to stay away from grand, sweeping statements in the style of Looking Forward until you've established the reputation and knowledge base - trust me, I know from experience. (Ugh, looking at posts by me that far back makes me cringe so hard...)

[Basel A]

Originally Posted by Chris is me

The heavy reliance on OPR as a metric for quality is concerning as well, especially considering how terrible OPR will be this year.

While I agree OPR will overall be bad this year, it's been a decent metric over the past few years and is a decent predictor of quality for this year. Assuming the OP stays away from justifying their opinions with 2014 OPRs, I don't see any problems. Also, saying OPR will be universally terrible seems like it's a common opinion, but it won't be totally accurate. Auton OPR will be good, T&C OPR won't be bad either.

[JamesCH95]

While I am really flattered that you would think we (95) will be a first round pick at GSD, and I really hope we are, I feel I need to correct one thing in your post about our team.

You said that we missed eliminations about as often as we made them. This isn't quite true in recent years. From 2011-2013 we've played in eliminations at 5 of 6 regional events. Mostly quarter-finalists though... which was always disappointing.

Still, I really liked your analyses and on the whole your post was a very good read with a number of good insights.

[who716]

Please do this for every NE event

[Peter Matteson]

Originally Posted by Chris is me

When you add that 177 missed their Week Zero for the first time in what seems like forever, I think it would be more reasonable to say they are a strong contender for #1 seed / regional win *if* they find their bearings.

This was the first time ever that we missed the week zero event.

We were at every week zero CT event and started the UTC scrimmage that preceeded the current Suffield Shakedown.

That said our school district cancelled the trip due to weather.

Our practice robot was ready to go for the scrimmage and we drove it all Sunday morning when the kids were allowed to the school for practice.

[Ty Tremblay]

Spot on with 811. They were fun to be on an alliance with, confident and honest in the abilities of their robot, and great communicators. If they've fixed their autonomous issues, which were coms related, look for them to have a consistent hot auto and great high goal ability.

[Brandon Zalinsky]

Many of these turned out to be very accurate. Good job! Are you planning on doing one for UNH?