Predictions Week 2: Aerodynamic Drag

[Looking Forward]

Defense reigned in week one, but most of the top offensive teams managed to find a way (or find a partner) to advance deep into the eliminations anyway. While there were pockets of beautiful play, especially from the winning alliance at Inland Empire, Aerial Assist got off to a grinding start. Alliances were forced to lug the ball through heavy traffic, aggressive defenders, field faults, and high penalty totals. Granted, field faults and penalties are par for the course during week one, but this game more than delivered on that front. FIRST's game update should address some of the issues, but there are still grey areas and plenty of judgment calls for the overworked refs to make. Expect improvement in week two, but more of the incremental nature than a giant leap.

With more events and more elite competitors going in week two, there will be some more teams capable of scoring in the high goal regularly. But still expect a lot of difficulties, and many of the middle of the pack launchers will be better served as trussing or assist machines. The low goal will continue to play a huge role, especially for well-structured alliances attempting to run quick, repeatable, two or three assist cycles. Tons of assist points combined with relentless defense will continue to be the strategy that provides lower seeded alliances the best chance at pulling off upsets, or at least keeping games within the range a technical foul could swing the outcome.

The truly elite teams will find ways to rise to the top of the ranking by themselves if they have to, but most teams will be limited by their alliance partners during qualifications. The smart teams that can find ways to milk assist points and effective defense out of semi-functional partners will have a distinct advantage. With the variety of strategies and codependence of partners in achieving high scores, manual scouting is more important, and more complicated, than ever. Don't expect some of the puzzling alliance selections to stop, as teams will have very different priorities and methods of analyzing data. One thing's for sure, you better be able to sell the advantages of your robot on and off the field.

Tips and tidbits:

• Groton may have the most high caliber teams of any NE district, with a slew of well-respected veterans, two Hall of Fame teams, and multiple former Einstein competitors. After three straight victories at the Connecticut regional, 195 is the front runner going in to the first district event in the state. The Cyber Knights are well practiced and will field a distinctive take on the Simbot SS inspired rotating arm design that features a multi-directional intake. 558 has picked up some new mentors over the past few years and is becoming a force in New England. They have an over the top catapult and are looking to come out strong after losing to the Cyber Knights in finals a few times over the past two years. 125 is making the trek down from Boston with what could be the best robot they have ever fielded. The NUTRONs haven't missed finals at any regional since 2010 and will most likely keep that streak going using their highly tuned shooter and 2 ball auto. Other than 177 and 195, 2168 is the CT team with the most recent success. The robot looks very similar to 125 and 558 and their drivers are always on point.
• A number of teams fell victim to the infamous "back bar" of the goal during week one. Provided FIRST's solution works, few teams will be more relieved than 131. The Granite State finalists will look to take home medals in back-to-back weeks and help cement themselves into one of the top spots in the NE FIRST standings this weekend at UNH. While a number of other competitors, including 126 and 319, won't make it easy, CHAOS looks to be the favorites heading in.
• Will week two be the week of two intakes? 254, 1538, and 488's multiple intake designs have obvious benefits in helping them complete their three ball autonomous routines, a feat which only 33 pulled off (once) during week one. The tele-op benefits will be more muted for teams who's primary scoring method is shooting, but a some low goal and passing specialists benefitted from that design aspect in week one.
• Seeing how traditionally more offensive regions react to the slugfest that is Aerial Assist will be something to watch all season. Along those lines, 1899 will be an interesting case study at Glacier Peak. Their plywood machines are absolutely gorgeous, and they always come prepared to replace aspects that break under duress. But with an intake that has to be outside the bumper zone to shoot, a lack of mechanisms to ensure ball security, and robots that often weigh well under the weight limit, Saints Robotics is precisely the type of team that is getting eaten alive in this game. Their long range launcher can still provide plenty of strategic value to the right alliance, but they're likely going to have to be more of a role player than an all-star in the eliminations.
• Although 955 and 2471 had strong seasons last year, they will be facing stiff competition this weekend. If Mean Machine lives up to the hype, they have the potential become the strongest bot in Oregon. 2811 has a unique design that should help them stick out among the pack. 1540's smart driving, strategy, and autonomous prowess will keep them in the hunt for the finals as well.
• The Bomb Squad have been building catapults and roller intakes since before they were cool, and their 2008 robot was a source of inspiration for many teams this season. 16 and their slick swerving machine will headline the competitors at Razorback. But the event hosts have read this game as well as anyone. 3937 spot a 6-CIM drivetrain, excellent passing ability, high accuracy goal scoring, a catchable truss shot, and good inbounding. 2014 may be a breakout season for team Breakaway.
• An appreciable amount of experience will be on the side of 2468 at Hub City in more than one way. Not only did they play 16 matches at Alamo last weekend, a full half of the field in Lubbock are teams over 4000 (though only five are rookies). Without a team like 148 to take the defensive pressure off, 2468 will have to be prepared to step up in what should be a closely matched event. However, they showed they're no stranger to defense last weekend, so I doubt they'll have much issue playing a slower tempo game if they have to.
• Just how cold do you think the Hawai'in kids are right now up in Duluth's sub-freezing weather? 359's multiple shooter design will be among the best in the field at Northern Lights, but 2512 and 2826 won't be shivering in their boots. Across the DECC, 2169's success in the past two years leaves them as the favorite to take home some serious hardware at Lake Superior. I'd say they're the clear favorite, but 1714 might have something to say about that.
• In an area hard hit by the polar vortex, having a week of on the field experience already under their belt could be a big advantage for 1024. They were grounded in the quarter-finals at Palmetto by 900's long range trussing, but the Kil-a-Bytes proved they are capable of high scores and can be a component of a contending alliance. But experience alone won't be enough to get them past the likes of 48, 71, 829, and 868 at Crossroads. The Kil-a-Bytes will need a top tier alliance partner if they want their first regional victory since 2009.
• The two favorites at Gull Lake have faced off against each other several times in the eliminations in the past few years, but the best result might be achieved if they're on the same side of the glass this season. The synchronicity between the 1918 and 2054 machines is obvious, and the two practiced together at 2771's facility prior to bagging their machines. Outside of them, 2767 will likely be one of the more effective machines. If NC Gears and the Tech Vikes align, it will be difficult to stop at this young district event. Though, the same could have been said for Fighting Pi and Bedford Express last week.
• Kettering is the deeper of the two FiM events this week, but still lacks the scoring depth of Southfield and lacks an obvious favorite. 2337 has the most hardware in recent years, but is coming off a season where their bot didn't meet its offensive expectations. 70 has been the more awarded Martian twin recently, and has the knowledge of 494's event last week already in their pocket. A number of other teams on the cusp may be able to finally break through at the event. 1684 have been finalists three times, including at Kettering last year, but haven't been able to find their way on to the #1 alliance or come away with gold. 314, 326, and 2619 each have one even win in their history, but those wins date back to 2004, 2008, and 2009 respectively. Once their kinks are worked out, each should be factors in the elims.
• In one of the more unusual quirks of the district system, there are no MAR events this weekend. New Jersey high schools are conducting state tests this week, and the district format enables MAR to best schedule their events to fit their teams' availability.
• Running one team at an event is no easy feat, let alone two. We'll see how well Theory 6 can handle the load of competing twice at the same event, just one week after their main robot lost in the semi-finals at GTR-West. 1241 and 1285 should both be early selections at GTR-East this weekend, with the elder team's experience advantage playing a huge role. If they falter, 1503 and 2013 shouldn't be too far behind them.
• Droves of teams were inspired by the GTR-East favorite's design from 2008, including 1114 themselves. It will be interesting to see how much the Simbot's firsthand knowledge of the original shaped their design in 2014, and what advantages the changes they made will grant them, not the least of which is their wheeled shooter. Simbot Evolution certainly has a lot of subtle details that will help it stand out against the competition.
• One of the major advantages of the Simbot SS-inspired designs in their versatility. With a good drivetrain and drive team, they should have little issue inbounding, passing, scoring on multiple low goal faces, trussing from within the white zone (which is not something that all line drive shooters can accomplish), playing defense, and even blocking shots. They can be terrific secondary options or back-court facilitators, if their strategies call for it. 973 should be a terrific example of this in Central Valley. While their two ball autonomous may lag behind the Poof's three ball potential, that shouldn't be a major factor in the eliminations if they're paired with a capable team. The Greybots may be an ideal fit for 254, or even 1323 if they can work the troubles out of their machine at their first event.
• It's unlikely that any other event will sport the top level offensive firepower that San Diego promises this weekend. 987 and 1538 are usually offensive dynamos, and Aerial Assist plays right into 330's brand of wonderfully simple machines fueled by great driving and preparation. Behind them, the second tier of 2485, 604, and 3476 will have some work to do to keep up with the big guns, but would be among the best at many events this weekend. If run and gun play is allowed, as it often is in California, this could be one heck of a shootout at the border.

[Justin Shelley]

I completly agree that strategy will be what makes or breaks rankings for most teams.

On another note I feel that every prediction Looking Forward makes becomes true because everyone that reads it feels that they must use the prediction to their advantage. This then makes the prediction true! lol philosophy at its best

[Zach101]

Originally posted by Looking FowardJust how cold do you think the Hawai'in kids are right now up in Duluth's sub-freezing weather?

We brought them to a place called Spirit Mountain yesterday where we went tubing, zip lining, and went down a ride called the Alpine Coaster. One of their team members had his first time feeling his face freeze. And it was about 20 degrees Fahrenheit so we wore short sleeve T-shirts and jeans while they came out of their vans all bundled up . They got lucky because it could have been 20 below zero and that was the kind of cold that we have been having all winter. I heard that the Hawai'in team's lowest temperature was around 50 degrees so I hope they are are nice and warm and have a great time up here in Duluth

[Nathan Streeter]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

With the variety of strategies and codependence of partners in achieving high scores, manual scouting is more important, and more complicated, than ever. Don't expect some of the puzzling alliance selections to stop, as teams will have very different priorities and methods of analyzing data. One thing's for sure, you better be able to sell the advantages of your robot on and off the field.

I definitely agree that this year should generally feature surprising alliance selections because of how difficult good scouting is... but at the same time I was (pleasantly) surprised at how good the alliance selections at GSD seemed this past weekend! Some of the teams I was hoping would slide to be our alliance's second pick (#2 alliance) didn't make it... we got a strong 2nd pick, but we've often been able to get a team for the 2nd pick that probably should've gone as a 1st pick. Unfortunately, (or fortunately, perhaps?) we didn't get that chance...

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

[*]A number of teams fell victim to the infamous "back bar" of the goal during week one. Provided FIRST's solution works, few teams will be more relieved than 131. The Granite State finalists will look to take home medals in back-to-back weeks and help cement themselves into one of the top spots in the NE FIRST standings this weekend at UNH. While a number of other competitors, including 126 and 319, won't make it easy, CHAOS looks to be the favorites heading in.

Yeah, I doubt anyone's more thankful than 131 about that lexan being added! While I know this isn't meant to be comprehensive list, 3467 is definitely a "team to watch" at UNH who may be able to challenge 131 in elims (if not partnered with them)...

[NickTosta]

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

I definitely agree that this year should generally feature surprising alliance selections because of how difficult good scouting is...

It's not even so much the difficulty of scouting, I'd argue that as long as you have a person watching every robot (which many teams do every year) this game is no more easy or difficult to scout than previous years.

There are two big reasons why alliance selection is going to be wildly unpredictable this year:

1. Parity and the difficulty of single-handedly winning a qual match
2. Strategic diversity

The first one is somewhat dependent on the depth of field at a given event, but it's clear that there are going to be greater numbers of "capable" and "somewhat-capable" robots than ever before. The plateau of "amazing" robots at the top is the same as ever, but robots in the middle of the pack (that are just one step away from being at that plateau) are much more common. And that means it's harder to single-handedly win a qual match, and that means that rankings are going to be unpredictable.

In other words, the best robot won't be #1, and the second best robot won't be #2, etc. Sure, it's like this every year, but the emphasis placed on working together (much like 2012's coopertition points directly contributing to your QP) multiplies the normal randomizing effects.


And then the second one is interesting because we haven't had a game with this level of strategic depth in a while. Especially compared to last year, where the only actual strategic choices were centered around full-court shooters. This year, right off the bat, you have to decide whether you want to go for double or triple assists and whether or not you want to go for the high goal. And then, because so many robots are competitive this year, and because there are so many different designs with different nuances, you have lots of choices for how you build your alliance.

What you're going to see are lots of teams opting for different strategies, and it's going to result in some surprising early picks. In rare cases I expect to see high-goal scoring robots spurned in favor of a low-goal robot with a fancy catching device or a slick passing mechanism. Not that I personally would advocate for that strategy, but I imagine there will be an alliance or two that attempts it. And you never know, with the right combination of robots, that may just be the strategy that wins it. And that's what makes the alliance selection so exciting and so critical this year.

[Akash Rastogi]

1323's robot is gorgeous. I think people will be really impressed when they see it on the field.

[Zebra_Fact_Man]

326 is not competing this year, so they will not be at Kettering.

Alternatively, 503, a perennial favorite and MSC Chairman's finalist, will be at Kettering.

[kenavt]

Always great reading LF's outlook for the week!

As noted in this thread, 33 made all three of their 3-ball autos 3 of 6 times at Southfield during week one.