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Predictions Week 4: Where the Ball Is Going to Be
The regional season is halfway over, and Aerial Assist is starting to take flight. Week three saw several top-notch alliances utilize overpowering offense to take home gold, knowing that the opposing alliances would often have to sacrifice assists or tempo to attempt to defend them. This wasn't universal, as defense still proved pivotal at smaller events and districts, and well-rounded play has shut down multiple offensive juggernauts. But the best offensive teams are showing they can put up high numbers even when the defense in their face. That's not to say this is the final state of the meta-game, but it does lend some hope to those who want to see shootouts on Einstein.
A common theme in week four will be iteration and improvement. How will teams adjust their machines and strategy on their second, or in some cases third, outing in Aerial Assist? Expect more quick passes, fewer balls on the ground, and more accurate autonomous modes from the teams who have seen the field before. Teams realize the sunk time in chasing loose balls, and the potential defense is exposes alliances to. Truss passing to the human player will continue to grow in popularity, but it will take effective power forward-types who can score in the face of defense for it to be viable.
Play away from the ball will continue to grow this weekend and into coming weeks as well. Playing defense is the natural thing to do, and is often the right choice. But playing defense can sometimes drag teams out of position to accept their offensive responsibilities quickly, get them trapped in a scrum on the wrong side of the field, or add to general congestion that will slow both alliance's offensive progressions. The best teams are learning how to pick their spots, and maintain a defensive positioning without hindering their alliance partners or slowing down play. For instance, many inbounders end up playing very little or no defense in order to stay in proper position for the initial pass on quick 3-assist cycles. At the championship level, it's going to be the inbounders who can both accomplish that quick pass and play defense than succeed.
- While most of the premier teams have already graced the field, a few more will be unbagging their robots for the first time in week four. 111 in Wisconsin, 2056 in Waterloo, and 1717 in Long Beach are the three biggest names competing for the first time this weekend. While these teams have certainly been taking notes and getting driver practice at home, experience is invaluable. It remains to be seen how quickly they can get off the starting line, and they may not have much time to waste at events with more experienced high profile teams.
- This is going to be the start of very busy months for 68, 2834, and 125. Truck Town Thunder and the Bionic Black Hawks will be making their season debuts at Midland, while the Nutrons already competed in Groton. All three teams will not only be competing this weekend, but in weeks 5 and 6 as well, and historically have good odds of reaching their district finals in week 7.
- The Los Angeles regional will pack a whopping 66 teams into the Long Beach arena this weekend. Topping that large field of competitors are several of FRC's top teams, including multiple that have already taken hardware home in 2014. Once again, 330 has one of the best drive teams, if not the very best, in FRC. Their skill handling the Beach Bots' machine was the critical factor in avoiding defense and winning in San Diego, and it would be startling if they don't make a deep run in Long Beach as well. 973's experience and hard-nosed defensive play led them to gold in Central Valley, but their offensive characteristics started to emerge in the eliminations. If the Greybots can continue to improve their machine, they will be a player again, but it will take significant strides in order to go deep without the aid of a top-notch partner. 1717 often takes a little while to get in sync, so it wouldn't be surprising to see them off to a slow start this weekend. But expect D'Penguineers to be quick and deadly once the eliminations start. 294 and 696 both earned Industrial Design Awards at their previous events, but neither could walk away victors. They'll be in the hunt, but may better be served working the back half of the court than the front during eliminations.
- Back in week one, the Killer Bees showed that it is possible for a top tier team to put up high scores and win matches without a focus on assists. Aerial Assist has evolved a lot since 33 competed last, and their strategic focus will likely have evolved as well. They're the top guns heading into the Great Lakes Bay Region District (yes, it's named "region district"), but they may need to change up their game plan a bit to win again.
- The Traverse City district may as well be called Escanaba Pt. 2, as more than half of the event competed in the Upper Peninsula last weekend. That being said, the captains and first round selections of both finalist alliances aren't attending TC, so the door will be opened for other teams to step up. After reaching the semis, 3618 is set up to have a good weekend, and 3602 has the potential to as well if they continue to dial in their shooter. But the biggest points at this event will come from assists, so the emphasis will be on well structured alliances who can move the ball quickly and keep the cycles coming.
- While the West Michigan district certainly isn't the West Michigan regional of years past, it will still be one of the most competitive districts of the season. 107 is fresh off their second district win of the season, and is sporting a tremendous 33-4 record so far this year. Their aggressive driving and smart play will make them a favorite again, but this event is deeper than their previous two. 2054 won Gull Lake in convincing fashion and has been a force at WMD for the past several years. 74 and 1918 were both members of the #1 alliance that was bounced in the semis at Gull Lake, and the Martian Twins (70 and 494) are usually in the picture as well.
- Lenape is shaping up to be one of the stronger MAR districts this season. With a full field of 40 teams, including several of MAR's best, it should lend itself to some highly competitive elimination matches. 316 are defending champs and are fresh off a victory last weekend, but they were second fiddle on both of those alliances and may need the same kind of partners to repeat the success. 25 took a different approach to Aerial Assist than most teams, and right now are looking pretty smart, despite only having a silver medal. But the favorites are 2590 and 225. Both are proven high goal scorers who aren't afraid to trade some paint. Despite this, the #8 alliance has been able to topple the #1 alliance at each of the previous two Lenape-Seneca districts.
- Many eyes will be watching to see how much 341 can improve after a limited trouble filled performance in week one (despite winning gold). Teams looking to build on lackluster week one competitions will be a common theme in Lenape. Event hosts 1647 also had success at Hatboro captaining an alliance to the finals, but have plenty of room for growth as their elimination role was primarily inbounding the ball. 1640 and 2729 will try to reach the bars they set last year, but may end up closer to their historic norms.
- Arizona isn't known as a traditional hotbed of FRC power, and the balance of power rests in the hands of teams that tend to rise and fall from year to year. 842 has become the most consistent performer, and if their pinching intake can work better than other similar designs, should be among the favorites once more. 2486 and 1726 are also competing for the first time this season, and should figure into the elimination picture as well. 4183's elimination trip in Lubbock was short, but they were a very early selection and the experience should only help them.
- A number of teams at Boilermaker had strong events earlier in the season, but were stopped short of the finals. 868, 2959, and 292 were each key players on elimination alliances, and should be among the best scoring machines in West Lafayette, even if there are some kinks to keep working out of their games.
- When you listen to sports commentators, you may hear them talking about defenders taking away "time and space" from an offensive player. When given the time and space to get off their calibrated shots, many teams can be offensive forces to be reckoned with. Take that time and space away from them, and you can severly limit their point potential. 135 is a perfect example. They were the star player on the winning alliance in Crossroads, and absolutely have the potential to light up Boilermaker as well. But when you get in their face, jostle their shots, and prevent them from lining up, their long range bombs are much less likely to find their mark. Opposing alliances will be foolish to try and simply outgun The Black Knights. They'll be difficult to stop, regardless, if they have a partner who's adept at finishing plays.
- Like many New England districts, Rhode Island should be a wide-open event with several top contenders at a similar level. 138 and 190 each already have a district victory under their belt, but getting more NEF points will mean more for Entropy since they don't have the legacy bid to Championship that Gompei and the Herd do. There's absolutely no chance that 125, 78, and 2168 were satisfied with their quarter-final exits earlier in the season. 1519's autonomous and assisting potential will make them a significant threat to play late into the eliminations, especially if they can pair up with a top tier finisher once again.
- While Southington will have plenty of primo scorers, with only 33 teams it's going to take some creativity to maximize scores during the eliminations. Expect some fierce New England defense to be applied throughout the event. 175 and 2067 have shown the most offensive potential so far, but they were busted out in the semis in Groton by the eventual champion alliance that featured both 230 and 1699. At the same event the #1 seed 195 was stunned in the quarter-finals, and will be looking for redemption at their home event.
- Even without a ton of rookies, Montreal is still a remarkably young event. Only four of the fourty-one teams have numbers under 3000. After a finals appearance in Tech Valley and winning this even the past two years, 3990 appears to be the top offensive threat heading into the event. 3360 and 3386 will also be factors in the eliminations. Most alliances will likely have to rely on coordination and multiple assist cycles to put up big numbers.
- Historically, the Virginia regional has been a defense oriented event, where only a handful of alliances are able to win matches with strategies focused on offensive firepower. This year may be similar, especially given how familiar the defensive nature of the game is to many teams. 422 once hung posters declaring that "defense wins championships" at the event, but they should be one of the more capable offensive machines, at least in terms of trussing. Based on their two ball autonomous modes and shooting ability 2607 and 2363 appear to be the favorites, but don't count out the well rounded play of 346, annual contenders 1086, or the defending champs 1610 either.
- Expect 2522, 488 and 1318 to show a refined game at Shorewood. These teams were split up at Glacier Peak, but if they find themselves in a situation where they can pick, we'll see some strong elimination alliances. After a pair of finals defeats, expect 2557 to be hungry for a banner as well, even if the points won't count.
- Coming off an impressive dual-banner performance Oregon City, sophomore standouts Shockwave look like the team to beat in Wilsonville. 4488 is heading into their second district with a three ball autonomous and a 17-2 record on the season. However, the hometown heroes 1425 were on the alliance that handed them one of those losses. 2471 was one of Shockwave's partners two weeks ago, but still has some work to do to show they are a top dog. In total, five of the six teams from the Oregon City finals will be at the event, and most of the field has already seen game action before.
- Barely more than half of the Buckeye regional calls the Buckeye state home. With so many teams, and top contenders, hailing from outside Ohio, there's a terrific chance that a lot of the hardware may be leaving with them. Notable visitors include 1507, 694, and 395 from New York, 612 and 1731 from Virginia, 217 and 910 from Michigan, and 846 from California. Despite falling in the quarterfinals at their first events, 2252 and 379 may be the top teams from Ohio at the event.
- The entire finalist alliance from Central Illinois will be in Milwaukee with redemption after the losing via penalty in week one. 171, 2039, and 4143 should all be in the eliminations once again. They formed an effective triple threat in week one, but Wisconsin will be a much deeper event.
- This game is about as purpose built for 48's hard nosed style as an FRC game can be. Delphi Elite were an effective defensive and trussing force in Crossroads, and if they improve their autonomous mode, stand to be a contender in Wisconsin as well. They aren't the only team at the event that stands a couple improvements away from being a top tier competitor. 706 and 2826 both boast technically excellent machines, but need to work on their shot selection under duress and ground loading. 2481's excellent mobility and intake give them top notch potential, but issues with ball control and accuracy made them, like many teams, a better trussing robot than high goal scorer during week one.
- Waterloo will be one of the most fascinating events this year for a multitude of reasons. Topping the list is the obvious, 254 is invading 1114 and 2056's home turf. Can the Cheesy Poofs dethrone at least half of the Canadian power-duo that has dominated the regional since 2056's inception in 2007? Could a SimPoof alliance cost OP Robotics their undefeated run of regional victories?
- With a group of headliners like that, it could be easy to overlook that the other defending IRI champ (1334), the #1 selection at GTR-E (3683), and the twins that met in the GTR-E finals (1241 and 1285) are all also in attendance. There will be no shortage of high-end machines, despite the small size of the event.
- Yet, Waterloo is indeed a small event, with only 30 teams. While the backend of the serpentine hasn't cost the #1 seed (more specifically, 1114 or 2056) since it's inception in 2006 (and the top seeded alliance won in the regional's inaugural year before that), no previous game has had a dynamic quite like Aerial Assist. Getting quality play from all three alliance members is key, and the dual-powerhouse formula is far from perfect in this game. The Cheesy Poofs showed their willingness to invest in a defense-oriented partner two weeks ago, and some aggressive defense from 1285's alliance helped shutter the Simbot's tournament in the semi-finals. Might a high profile team decline another? Will a team shut out of the power duo get a better rounded alliance later in the draft?
Last edited by Looking Forward : 20-03-2014 at 09:46.
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I survived the Great CD Spamming of 2006. - Michelle Celio [more] 
19-03-2014, 20:03
to some truss tosses this event. It was very hard at our last event waiting for teams to throw the ball over the truss and nothing happening. With 3 weeks for bugs to be worked out by teams we cant wait for this event.
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