FIRST in Michigan: 2015 Season Preview

[FiM Informer]

Welcome to the 24th season of FRC and the 7th season of the Michigan district system! We’ve come a long way since 2009, and I think it’s fair to say Michigan has outpaced every expectation from that pilot season. From 3 regionals in 2008 to 19 events in 2015, just about tripling in size. We’ve even outgrown EMU, which was the host of GLR (and then MSC) from 1998 to 2014. Michigan also commands outsized respect from the rest of the world, and it’s your challenge, and mine, to deserve it.

I've tried to keep this post a bit shorter than mine have been in the past. Feedback always welcome!

Robots we’ve seen
Several Michigan teams have released photos or videos of their robots - 27, 314, and 503 among others - but I’m not too interested. Even extended reveal videos can be very misleading, so I’m waiting until I see what they do on the field. Keep an eye out for 33, 67, and 469, who play at their first events in weeks 1, 2, and 3, respectively. While it’ll be quite exciting to have 33 breaking the ice on this new season, I have to say I’m expecting truly crazy things from the 469.

Active vs passive pickup
Grabbing totes and RCs is deceptively hard. Those teams with intakes that require precise line-up will struggle, but even many of those with rudimentary intakes (wheels and whatnot) won’t do so well. Getting totes requires some tuning with intake width, forces needed, etc. It’ll be all too evident at events which teams have been tuning and practising, and which have not. This will separate just-OK robots from great robots.

Height of stacks in early weeks
Some robots are specially designed to be more efficient scoring large stacks (see: 148), but for your everyday robots, at a week 1 event, there’s simply no reason to go over 4 or so. Larger stacks are more eggs in an increasingly unstable basket, and it gets harder and harder to top with an RC. This will change over the course of the season and possibly even over the course of week 1 events as RCs become more and more valuable and stacks need to get larger to maximise score.

Auton RC grabbers
From what I’ve heard, several elite teams haven’t been developing 4-RC auton grabbers. Some may be planning more qual-specific strategies, and plan to select the best RC grabber for the playoffs. Others could be waiting to see the best designs in order to piggy-back (see: the entire 2011 season). But ultimately I expect many teams will settle for the “level 1 climb” of RC grabbing, which is getting 2 of the 4 using a relatively easy drop-down design.

Coopertition
For a long time, early week competitions were about getting your scores in while hoping your partners can at least drive, not about actually trying to work together for a cohesive strategy. But, for the 3rd year out of 4, working together will be extremely important from the outset. In 2012, the best teams got more than half their QS from coopertition. In 2014, teams like 2337 put up big scores in early weeks by getting their partners involved. Here in 2015, coopertition points are the lowest hanging of fruit. Expect smart teams to go after them right away. Stack of three gray totes with RC: 18 pts. Stack of 3* yellow totes: 40 pts.

*3 because your alliance partners across the step (“opponents”) have to place at least one. I’d assume you guys are smart and know what I mean but seriously, I get negrepped for stuff like this.

Knocking over stacks
In years past it was easy to get away with having alliance members just drive around, do spins, play “defence” and not really affect your alliance’s offensive scoring too much. But, with no possibility of defence and the scoring objects being stacked and only counted at the end of the match, the possibility of accidental descoring has never been higher. This is a bigger issue because of wins and loses not deciding the rankings. In a system of the past, one knocked-over stack sometimes wouldn’t have even made a difference, especially if one alliance were dominating anyway. This year every point matters, and top teams will fight for every inch.

Errant robots won't be the only cause of knocked over stacks. High stacks will limit vision on the landfill side of the field and with the need to get landfill totes, stack coop totes, and pull out recycling containers, one false move could take a 42 point stack and create a pile of totes and very upset alliance members. One mitigation strategy: keep your stacks to the sides of the field and work progressively towards the middle.

Frankly, at a week 1 event with maybe 10-15 teams effectively playing the game, the top seed has to consider sitting their third robot. There are a few ways such a robot can contribute, and clever coaches will use their partners to the best of their abilities. Some top teams will even bring additional equipment to tool up their partners (perhaps a wedge to break up the landfill). But ultimately, some captains will be stuck selecting a team that will get in the way more than they’ll contribute.

New Playoff Format
No wins and no losses until the finals. What are the consequences? It could end the crazy upsets, it could eliminate the cinderella stories, it could mean that the best two alliances play for the gold more often than not. No more bad draws in the elimination bracket, no more getting lucky with who you’re playing against. The only thing to worry about is your own alliance (and the step RCs!).

For those of you competing this week, good luck, and I'll see you at the competition!

[Jim Schaddelee]

Great informative post ,but I miss your predictions and and team analysis.