1114 the Statistical Outlier

[David8696]

So I was doing some calculations, and according to the OPR and CCWM rankings posted by Ed Law, 1114 appears to be a bit of an outlier.

The most striking statistic to me was the fact that as of Week 2, 1114 is 2.67 standard deviations above...

Second place.

[Sean Raia]

They're quick, that's for sure. I expect the gap to tighten up a bit in the coming weeks. Not only will 2056 come in to play and likely give them a run for their money, but many of the other elite teams will have their kinks worked out.

Still, incredibly impressive performance out of the gates from them.

[g_sawchuk]

Their design is literally amazing. However, they're going to do a lot more to win championships. If you were like me and watched Dallas, the scores were much higher than GTRC. 1114 needs to work more on incorporating all members of their alliance to thus max their efficiency. None the less, awesome robot, and I think they will go far.

[dtengineering]

1114 isn't a statistical outlier... 1114 defines statistical outlier!

Jason

[Ichlieberoboter]

They are honestly AMAZING. Well done, team 1114!

[Chris is me]

You guys can go ahead and tell yourselves 1114 isn't actually that great, other teams are just as good, they have weakness X or Y... Whatever, if it makes you feel better about your robot, great.

But make no mistake about it, 1114 is the best in the world at this point. It isn't even close. There's nobody in FIRST who can come close to matching their output. Four stacks of six with cans is more than many entire regional winning alliances did, combined. They are outscoring not only multiple robot alliances, but they're outscoring teams with tethered human player stackers - their intake is that good, their stacker is that fast.

The craziest thing is that 1114 is a team that never stops improving, and we've just seen their first event configuration. Compare 1114 at Championship last year to their performance at their first regional - the strategic addition of a goalie pole, refined cycle completion, even better driving. The leaps and bounds 1114 is going to make with this machine should be astounding.

1114 hasn't been this much better than everyone else since 2008 - and that should scare anybody who is seriously gunning for a World Championship title.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by Chris is me

1114 hasn't been this much better than everyone else since 2008 - and that should scare anybody who is seriously gunning for a World Championship title.

They were considerably better at their first even in 2015 than they were at their first event in 2008. They've never come out of the gate this strong.

I also don't know if this game permits the amount of growth that 1114 showed in 2008, either. At their later regionals, they were outscoring entire alliances by themselves... in autonomous.

[ratdude747]

Some odd trivia:

1114's 2008 bot's name: SS

in 2015, their bot is named SideSwipe.

interesting coincidence?

[DampRobot]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

They were considerably better at their first even in 2015 than they were at their first event in 2008. They've never come out of the gate this strong.

I also don't know if this game permits the amount of growth that 1114 showed in 2008, either. At their later regionals, they were outscoring entire alliances by themselves... in autonomous.

I remember seeing in one of Ed's spreadsheets that in 2008, 1114 was something like 5.67 standard deviation above the mean. That number is even crazier if you look at the p-value for it.

While there are always so, so dominant, I would have to agree. They are putting up points that seem to be about the limit of what one robot can do on its own, at least without a major change in the dynamics of the alliance. While they will continue to absolutely crush, other top tier teams will likely catch up to some degree.

[David8696]

Originally Posted by DampRobot

I remember seeing in one of Ed's spreadsheets that in 2008, 1114 was something like 5.67 standard deviation above the mean. That number is even crazier if you look at the p-value for it.

While there are always so, so dominant, I would have to agree. They are putting up points that seem to be about the limit of what one robot can do on its own, at least without a major change in the dynamics of the alliance. While they will continue to absolutely crush, other top tier teams will likely catch up to some degree.

This year (as of the Ed Law spreadsheet I looked at before making this post, which was post-Week 2; I haven't run the numbers yet for Wk. 3), they were slightly over 8 standard deviations above the mean.

[Nathan Streeter]

After a fair number of teams came somewhat close to 1114's 143pt QA from GTRC... making them look not-quite-so-outlier-defining, it's looking like they will have a QA of around 200pt at Waterloo!

Mind = blown

[Cory]

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

After a fair number of teams came somewhat close to 1114's 143pt QA from GTRC... making them look not-quite-so-outlier-defining, it's looking like they will have a QA of around 200pt at Waterloo!

Mind = blown

Makes sense. that 143 was almost entirely 1114's contribution to the alliance. Now that there are stronger teams, their contribution is the same and their partners are adding to it.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

After a fair number of teams came somewhat close to 1114's 143pt QA from GTRC... making them look not-quite-so-outlier-defining, it's looking like they will have a QA of around 200pt at Waterloo!

Mind = blown

Their current QA at Waterloo is 215.60
The highest an alliance without 1114 on it has scored is 215 (Dallas F2)

[The_ShamWOW88]

We're all just small fish swimming in the Simbotics fishtank....

[lcoreyl]

Originally Posted by Nathan Streeter

After a fair number of teams came somewhat close to 1114's 143pt QA from GTRC... making them look not-quite-so-outlier-defining, it's looking like they will have a QA of around 200pt at Waterloo!

Mind = blown

If they indeed get a 200pt average that would be crazy. Let's not forget that their current average is paired with 2056 twice and 5406 once making this more of an eliminations looking average...