FIRST 4 year game theme cycle theory

[ASD20]

So while everyone is busy trying to answer silly questions like "What will next year's game be?", I have been hard at work (I actually spent way too much time on this) diving in to the history of FRC to find an answer to the real question on everyone's minds: "What color will the carpet be next year?". To answer this question I studied the past 15 games because what can you possibly learn from a mere 14 games? I even braved looking back through the what is known as the "Dark Years" of FRC (2004-2008), when FIRST did not provide carpet names. What I have come up with I am calling the "FIRST 7 year carpet color cycle theory". Every 7 years starting back in 2003, the field has featured three colors of carpet: a red, a blue, and a third color.

2016-FIRST Stronghold: "Scotch Pine"

2015-Recycle Rush: "Polar Express" and "Capital Red"

2014-Aerial Assist: "Ground Pepper"

2013-Ultimate Ascent: "Ground Pepper"

2012-Rebound Rumble: "Park Bench"

2011-Logomotion: "Ground Pepper"

2010-Breakaway: "Scotch Pine" with small amounts of "Polar Express" and "Capitol Red"

2009-Lunacy: "Glasliner FRP(tm)"

2008-FIRST Overdrive: "gray"

2007-Rack 'n Roll: "gray"

2006-Aim High: "gray"

2005-Triple Play: "gray"

2004-FIRST Frenzy: Raising the Bar: "gray"

2003-Stack Attack: "Saphire Night", "Pewter", and "Festival Red"

2002-Zone Zeal: "Black Coal"

2017 will be 7 years from 2010, so we will see this pattern occur again. Look at the facts, they're indisputable. Now that I have cracked this mystery that has puzzled FRC for decades, all of CD can sleep easy until kickoff knowing what the carpet will be and can stop worrying about silly things like the what the game will be.

[Whatever]

With the water game joke that's always floating around, I was thinking blue carpet and plastic shark game pieces.

[BJC]

Another GDC pattern I've been keeping close track of over the years that goes all the way back to the beginning:

1992: Maize Craze - Not a Water Game
1993: Rug Rage - Not a Corn Game
1994: Tower Power - Not a Water Game
1995: Ramp 'n Roll - Not a Corn Game
1996: Hexagon Havoc - Not a Water Game
1997: Toroid Terror - Not a Corn Game
1998: Ladder Logic - Not a Water Game
1999: Double Trouble - Not a Corn Game
2000: Co-Opertition FIRST - Not a Water Game
2001: Diabolical Dynamics - Not a Corn Game
2002: Zone Zeal - Not a Water Game
2003: Stack Attack - Not a Corn Game
2004: FIRST Frenzy: Raising the Bar - Not a Water Game
2005: Triple Play - Not a Corn Game
2006: Aim High - Not a Water Game
2007: Rack 'n Roll - Not a Corn Game
2008: FIRST Overdrive - Not a Water Game
2009: Lunacy - Not a Corn Game
2010: Breakaway - Not a Water Game
2011: Logomotion - Not a Corn Game
2012: Rebound Rumble - Not a Water Game
2013: Ultimate Ascent - Not a Corn Game
2014: Aerial Assist - Not a Water Game
2015: Recycle Rush - Not a Corn Game
2016: FIRST Stronghold - Not a Water Game

As you can see this pattern fluctuates every other year. If this pattern continues 2017 will not be a corn game.

Cheers, Bryan

[cad321]

Originally Posted by BJC

As you can see this pattern fluctuates every other year. If this pattern continues 2017 will not be a corn game.

So what you're telling me is... next year will be a water game

[IKE]

I was looking for some cool science related things for 2017:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017

I must admit, the JAXA robot mission to the moon has me a bit concerned for the return of lunacy....

[GeeTwo]

Originally Posted by cad321

So what you're telling me is... next year will be a water game

Not quite that strong. I believe he's conjecturing that sometime next year, at some event, there shall be played at least one match without corn on one side of the field.

An alternate conjecture:

• Odd years: not a corn game
• Even years: not a regolith game

Edit: or is it too soon?

[ctt956]

Originally Posted by BJC

Another GDC pattern I've been keeping close track of over the years that goes all the way back to the beginning:

1992: Maize Craze - Not a Water Game
1993: Rug Rage - Not a Corn Game

...

As you can see this pattern fluctuates every other year. If this pattern continues 2017 will not be a corn game.

Cheers, Bryan

But the not-a-corn game years didn't have water, and the not-a-water game years didn't have corn except for 1992...

[Richard Wallace]

Originally Posted by BJC

If this pattern continues 2017 will not be a corn game.

Oh, please, please, GDC! Give us a corn game!

[MrRoboSteve]

Originally Posted by Richard Wallace

Oh, please, please, GDC! Give us a corn game!

http://agmanager.info/marketing/outl...tters/Corn.asp

U.S. corn prices are forecast to decline from September 2016 into harvest lows in October. Then following these October harvest lows, corn prices are projected to increase through November-December 2016, but to then more sideways-to-marginally higher through March 2017.

Clearly, FIRST is increasing their corn stocks in advance of 2017 competition season.

[Gregor]

https://jonnegroni.com/2013/07/11/the-pixar-theory/

[Caleb Sykes]

I see a clear trend in the number of robots per alliance each year. I think that this clearly indicates that 2017 will be the year we finally see 3.63 robots per alliance.

[Mike Schreiber]

Originally Posted by Roboshant

2010: Breakaway GB2
-More traditional (pretty much robot soccer) with goals on opposite sides.
-Shooting/punching balls into goals
-Hanging was included, but not a huge emphasis.

2010 you scored on the goals on your side of the field.

[I_AM_Clayton]

Originally Posted by Roboshant

I don't know if this has been pointed out before, but it seems as if FIRST recycles a general theme for games every 4 year.

Oh its been pointed out

Originally Posted by aldaeron

To elaborate, here is the last bunch of game pieces:

2008 - Large Diameter Spheres (~40" DIA) covered in rugged fabric
2009 - Non-Sphere Moon Rocks. Maybe kinda Sphere-ish.
2010 - Small Diameter Spheres (Soccer Balls) (~9" DIA)
2011 - Inflatable FIRST logo pieces
2012 - Small Diameter Spheres (Foam Basketballs) (~8" DIA)
2013 - Non-Sphere Frisbees
2014 - Large Diameter Spheres (~24" DIA) covered in rugged fabric
2015 - Non-Sphere Totes
2016 - Theoretically due for some sort of sphere game piece, if pattern continues ...

Originally Posted by tindleroot

This pattern even went back further.

2002 - Small Spheres (Though they were only a secondary game piece in the end)
2003 - Non-Sphere Totes
2004 - 2 Types of Balls, both large and small diameter
2005 - Non-Sphere PVC Tetrahedrons
2006 - Small Diameter Spheres
2007 - Non-Sphere Inflatable Inner Tubes

Originally Posted by Technologyman00

I cant believe how much people look into this.

LOL^^

Originally Posted by EricH

You know what's REALLY sad?


2001: Small Spherical Game Objects (SGOs) AND large SGOs.
2000: Small SGOs.
1999: Non-SGO (torus shape made of fabric, filled with foam peanuts and rimmed with velcro)
1998: Large SGOs.
1997: Non-SGO (inner tube, see 2007 for approximation)
1993-1996: Small SGOs, various.
1992: VERY Small SGO (tennis balls, I believe)

And no, I wasn't watching events before around 1998/1999.

If that doesn't bust the pattern, I don't know what will.

[Dibit1010]

Thanks for positing this- 100% will use at offseason meetings! (Also maybe to bet on next years game with some fellow students- outside school of course!)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[346CADmen]

So this pre-season we will be discussing ways in which our robot can manipulate unusually shaped ball things while crossing carpet that is not corn water colored. All the while remembering that we will likely need to score in a fashion that will not include said ball or carpet to maximize points.