PNW District Championship Projections

[SoftwareBug2.0]

With only two weeks of district competition left it's time to project the field. Thanks to Navid Shafa for reminding me.

I've done this the last two years:
2015: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=135841
2014: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=128388

The methodology hasn't changed, for details see the previous threads. Best of luck to everyone still competing.

Key:

in=will have enough points to make it in
out=won't make it
~in=probably going to have enough points
~out=probably won't have enough points
bubble=could easily go either way

Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 37
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 97
Best estimate: 52
{'bubble': 50, 'out': 25, '~in': 36, '~out': 37, 'in': 10}
0       in      1983 - Skunk Works Robotics 
1       in      2522 - Royal Robotics 
2       in      4061 - SciBorgs 
3       in      3238 - Cyborg Ferrets 
4       in      4911 - CyberKnights 
5       in      5920 - VIKotics 
6       in      3663 - CPR - Cedar Park Robotics 
7       in      2147 - CHUCK 
8       in      3711 - Iron Mustang 
9       in      4205 - ROBOCUBS 
10      ~in     2928 - Viking Robotics 
11      ~in     2557 - SOTAbots 
12      ~in     3826 - Sequim Robotics Federation "SR... 
13      ~in     2930 - Sonic Squirrels 
14      ~in     4726 - Robo Dynasty 
15      ~in     4980 - Canine Crusaders 
16      ~in     1425 - Error Code Xero 
17      ~in     1318 - Issaquah Robotics Society 
18      ~in     4450 - Olympia Robotics Federation 
19      ~in     1778 - Chill Out 
20      ~in     1595 - The Dragons 
21      ~in     5450 - St. Helens Robotics and Engine... 
22      ~in     4915 - Spartronics 
23      ~in     3223 - Retrobotics 
24      ~in     4488 - Shockwave 
25      ~in     4077 - M*A*S*H 
26      ~in     2907 - Lion Robotics 
27      ~in     1258 - SeaBot 
28      ~in     4125 - Confidential 
29      ~in     5942 - Warriors 
30      ~in     2149 - CV Bearbots 
31      ~in     4089 - Stealth Robotics 
32      ~in     5827 - Code Purple 
33      ~in     5803 - Apex Robotics 
34      ~in     2944 - Titanium Tigers 
35      ~in     2046 - Bear Metal 
36      ~in     2471 - Team Mean Machine 
37      ~in     5495 - Aluminati 
38      ~in     5588 - Holy Names Academy 
39      ~in     955 - CV Robotics 
40      ~in     949 - Wolverine Robotics 
41      ~in     2926 - Robo Sparks 
42      ~in     4513 - Circuit Breakers 
43      ~out    4495 - Tigers 
44      ~out    1294 - Top Gun 
45      ~in     1540 - Flaming Chickens 
46      ~in     3786 - Chargers 
47      out     6129 - Shadle Park 
48      ~out    2923 - Aggies 
49      bubble  5468 - Retro-bots 
50      ~out    4682 - BraveBots 
51      bubble  5975 - Beta Blues 
52      ~in     5085 - LakerBots 
53      bubble  5937 - MI-Robotics 
54      bubble  2910 - Jack in the Bot 
55      ~out    4173 - Bulldogs 
56      ~out    4180 - Iron Riders 
57      bubble  997 - Spartan Robotics 
58      bubble  4131 - Iron Patriots 
59      ~out    3586 - Pride in the Tribe-Caveman Rob... 
60      ~out    2903 - NeoBots 
61      ~out    3712 - RoboCats 
62      ~out    4608 - Duct Tape Warriors 
63      bubble  3393 - Horns of Havoc 
64      ~out    4683 - Full-metal Robotics 
65      out     3070 - Team Pronto 
66      bubble  4469 - R.A.I.D. (Raider Artificial In... 
67      bubble  2990 - Hotwire 
68      out     4120 - Jagwires 
69      out     3220 - Mechanics of Mayhem 
70      out     4512 - BEARbots 
71      bubble  1510 - Wildcats 
72      out     2148 - Mechaknights 
73      bubble  3574 - HIGH TEKERZ 
74      out     568 - Nerds of the North 
75      out     488 - Team XBot 
76      out     4030 - NullPointerException 
77      bubble  753 - High Desert Droids 
78      bubble  3673 - C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls 
79      bubble  2374 - Crusader Bots 
80      out     492 - Titan Robotics Club 
81      bubble  4692 - Metal Mallards 
82      out     2976 - Spartabots 
83      bubble  3674 - 4-H Clover Bots 
84      bubble  2412 - Robototes 
85      bubble  2733 - Pigmice 
86      bubble  3221 - KM Royals 
87      out     6076 - Mustangs 
88      bubble  5970 - BeaverTronics 
89      bubble  4309 - 4-H Botsmiths 
90      out     2605 - Sehome Seamonsters 
91      bubble  4051 - Sabin-Sharks 
92      bubble  4043 - NerdHerd 
93      out     4082 - Ranching Robots 
94      bubble  360 - The Revolution 
95      bubble  4662 - Byte Sized Robotics 
96      bubble  5941 - SPQL 
97      bubble  3787 - Wild Robotocats 
98      bubble  5956 - Falcons 
99      bubble  948 - NRG (Newport Robotics Group) 
100     out     3693 - GearHead Pirates 
101     bubble  3588 - the Talon 
102     bubble  2906 - Sentinel Prime Robotics 
103     bubble  4132 - Scotbots 
104     out     3268 - Vahallabots 
105     bubble  4110 - DEEP SPACE NINERS 
106     out     3789 - On Track Robotics 
107     bubble  2635 - Lake Monsters 
108     bubble  2002 - Tualatin Robotics 
109     bubble  3684 - Electric Eagles 
110     out     3681 - Robo-Raiders 
111     out     1899 - Saints Robotics 
112     bubble  4681 - Murphy's law 
113     bubble  5683 - RAVE 
114     bubble  2811 - StormBots 
115     out     4918 - The Roboctopi 
116     out     4104 - Blackhawks 
117     bubble  2521 - SERT 
118     ~out    5977 - Rosemary Anderson H S/POIC 
119     bubble  3781 - Cardinal 4-H Robotics 
120     out     3575 - OK Aggies 
121     ~out    5939 - Lakes Lancers 
122     bubble  4654 - Mountaineers 
123     bubble  2927 - Pi Rho Techs 
124     bubble  3219 - TREAD 
125     bubble  4060 - S.W.A.G. 
126     bubble  3812 - Bits & Bots 
127     bubble  2980 - The Whidbey Island Wild Cats 
128     bubble  3192 - Tiger Bytes 
129     bubble  4461 - Ramen 
130     bubble  3237 - Bionic Braves 
131     out     3876 - Mabton LugNutz 
132     out     5111 - SaxonBots 
133     ~out    5748 - Adna Pirates 
134     ~out    4127 - LoggerBots 
135     ~out    2929 - JAGBOTS 
136     ~out    847 - PHRED 
137     ~out    3218 - Panther Robotics 
138     out     2660 - Pengbots 
139     ~out    1571 - CALibrate Robotics 
140     ~out    5295 - Aldernating Current 
141     ~out    2915 - Riverdale Robotics/Pandamonium 
142     ~out    2555 - RoboRams 
143     ~out    2942 - Panda ER 
144     ~out    957 - SWARM 
145     ~out    4579 - RoboEagles 
146     ~out    5198 - Knight Tech 
147     ~out    1359 - Scalawags 
148     ~out    1432 - Metal Beavers 
149     ~out    2411 - Rebel @lliance 
150     ~out    2550 - Skynet 
151     ~out    3024 - My Favorite Team 
152     ~out    3049 - BremerTron 
153     ~out    3131 - Gladiators 
154     ~out    3576 - Clover Park High School Warrio... 
155     ~out    3636 - Generals 
156     ~out    3831 - Da Bears 
157     ~out    4057 - STEAMPUNK - Klamath Basin Robo...

[Maria S]

Team 3831 da bears should probably be out instead of ~out because they didn't even show up to their cwu regional (and their other one I think)

Otherwise, this looks exciting! My team is on the ~in list so that's always good.

[SoftwareBug2.0]

Originally Posted by Maria S

Team 3831 da bears should probably be out instead of ~out because they didn't even show up to their cwu regional (and their other one I think)

Otherwise, this looks exciting! My team is on the ~in list so that's always good.

That's too bad about 3831. Looking at results manually it seems they were indeed a no-show at their second event too so I guess they're toast.

Interestingly, there are way more teams this year that are actually playing both of their events in the last two weeks. That makes projecting the lineup a little more challenging than usual.

[Mr V]

Originally Posted by SoftwareBug2.0

That's too bad about 3831. Looking at results manually it seems they were indeed a no-show at their second event too so I guess they're toast.

Interestingly, there are way more teams this year that are actually playing both of their events in the last two weeks. That makes projecting the lineup a little more challenging than usual.

Yes unfortunately 3831 didn't show up at CWU or AMV. They were no shows last year as well.

The reason that so many more teams are not playing their first match until week 4 is the fact that the OR events are weeks 2,4,5 this year and last year they were 1,3,5. So most of the teams that haven't played yet are from OR. With the switch to 4 W. WA events instead of 5 and the E. WA events moving to weeks 1,3 instead of 2,4 that means more of the WA teams have played both of their events by week 3.

[InFlight]

The Easter weekend, and just the single event this week might be another factor pushing a lot of teams into the last weekend.

[AaronSchmitz]

Chairman's still automatically advances, right? So that would bring 2557 (~in), 4125 (~in), 1540 (~in), and 3574 (~bubble) to in along with 4911 and 1983 which are already in.

[SoftwareBug2.0]

Originally Posted by AaronSchmitz

Chairman's still automatically advances, right? So that would bring 2557 (~in), 4125 (~in), 1540 (~in), and 3574 (~bubble) to in along with 4911 and 1983 which are already in.

Correct.

[Ian Curtis]

How many points does it think the cutoff will be? Has it done a decent job at predicting the points required in previous seasons? I think it was 64 last year & 58 the year before when the dust settled (some declines maybe?). If that benchmark is holding about true, it's probably useful for teams to set their goals & expectations as things move forward.

Thanks for doing this!

[SoftwareBug2.0]

Originally Posted by Ian Curtis

How many points does it think the cutoff will be? Has it done a decent job at predicting the points required in previous seasons? I think it was 64 last year & 58 the year before when the dust settled (some declines maybe?). If that benchmark is holding about true, it's probably useful for teams to set their goals & expectations as things move forward.

Thanks for doing this!

Here's what the results looked like:

2015:
2 weeks out: 62
1 week out: 62
Actual: 64

2014:
2 weeks out: 56
1 week out: 55
Actual: 58

It's a small sample size but it does seem to be a little bit biased toward making low estimates.

[SoftwareBug2.0]

Originally Posted by Ian Curtis

How many points does it think the cutoff will be? Has it done a decent job at predicting the points required in previous seasons? I think it was 64 last year & 58 the year before when the dust settled (some declines maybe?). If that benchmark is holding about true, it's probably useful for teams to set their goals & expectations as things move forward.

Thanks for doing this!

And I forgot to add: it's already listing what it thinks that the cutoff might be:

Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 37
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 97
Best estimate: 52

[Navid Shafa]

Thanks for doing this again Eric!

[Nuttyman54]

Good stuff, Eric!

I'm curious about some of the details of your methodology that I didn't see in your previous posts. Are you taking into account dead points from 3rd plays and un-winnable awards? For example, as far as I can tell, Philomath won't be giving out a Rookie All-Star award, so those 8 points are guaranteed gone from the district.