Michigan State Championship Projections

[SoftwareBug2.0]

Per Basel A's request, I'm projecting the field for the Michigan State Championship.

I'm following the same methodology as I've used in projecting the teams in the PNW district. For example, see here: http://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/sh...d.php?t=145965

Best of luck to everyone still competing.

Key:

in=will have enough points to make it in
out=won't make it
~in=probably going to have enough points
~out=probably won't have enough points
bubble=could easily go either way

Best-case points to make it to district cmp: 57
Worst-case points to make it to district cmp: 106
Best estimate: 69
{'bubble': 87, 'out': 92, '~in': 63, '~out': 155, 'in': 14}
0       in      85 - B.O.B. (Built on Brains) 
1       in      1023 - Bedford Express 
2       in      3534 - House of Cards 
3       in      3546 - Buc'n'Gears 
4       in      2137 - TORC 
5       in      5926 - MooBotics 
6       in      1918 - NC GEARS 
7       in      5460 - Strike Zone 
8       in      3602 - RoboMos 
9       in      5114 - Titanium Tigers 
10      in      5980 - East Grand Rapids Robotics 
11      in      6193 - The Legend of Robotics 
12      in      503 - Frog Force 
13      in      3618 - Petoskey Paladins 
14      ~in     107 - Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S. 
15      ~in     3538 - RoboJackets 
16      ~in     5448 - CC Automationeers 
17      ~in     2619 - The Charge 
18      ~in     6098 - bIrobot 
19      ~in     123 - Team - Cosmos 
20      ~in     548 - Robostangs 
21      ~in     3656 - Dreadbots 
22      ~in     6086 - Ignition 
23      ~in     4381 - Twisted Devils 
24      ~in     5150 - Hybrid Hornets 
25      ~in     1481 - The Riveters 
26      ~in     3548 - RoboRavens2 
27      ~in     3655 - Tractor Technicians 
28      ~in     5053 - Lakers 
29      ~in     5155 - Bearcats 
30      ~in     1701 - RoboCubs 
31      ~in     5222 - JackBotics 
32      ~in     5502 - Cobrots 
33      ~in     2959 - Robotarians 
34      ~in     1250 - Gator-Bots 
35      ~in     4680 - Az-Tech Eagles 
36      ~in     3098 - The Captains 
37      ~in     2611 - Jacktown Vectors 
38      ~in     3770 - BlitzCreek 
39      ~in     1684 - Chimeras 
40      ~in     4003 - TriSonics 
41      ~in     5166 - Fabricators 
42      ~in     5084 - FridgeBot Inc. 
43      ~in     2612 - The Corsairs 
44      ~in     5712 - Hemlock's Gray Matter 
45      ~in     5167 - Vi-Bots 
46      ~in     2834 - Bionic Black Hawks 
47      ~in     4377 - Boyne City Blaze 
48      ~in     1025 - IMPIS 
49      ~in     5203 - Volatile Chaos Inhibitors 
50      ~in     5048 - Spartronics 
51      ~in     2586 - Copper Bots 
52      ~in     67 - The HOT Team 
53      ~in     2767 - Stryke Force 
54      ~in     3604 - Goon Squad 
55      ~in     4391 - BraveBots 
56      ~in     33 - Killer Bees 
57      ~in     5843 - Flurb 
58      ~in     3620 - Average Joes 
59      ~in     27 - Team RUSH 
60      ~in     308 - The Monsters 
61      ~in     2832 - The Livonia Warriors 
62      ~in     3535 - Galaktech Invaders 
63      ~in     4376 - Raydernators 
64      ~in     3357 - COMETS 
65      ~in     1188 - RoboRavens1 
66      ~in     4384 - Benzene Bots 
67      bubble  6085 - Devil Bots 
68      bubble  2960 - automation nation 
69      bubble  5046 - Jacked Up Jackets 
70      ~out    3658 - Robo - Beavers 
71      ~in     70 - More Martians 
72      ~out    4453 - The Red Hot Chili Bots 
73      ~out    5710 - The O-Bots 
74      ~out    4130 - The Blue Devils 
75      ~out    5610 - Saugatuck Robotics 
76      ~out    1506 - Metal Muscle 
77      ~out    141 - WOBOT 
78      ~out    857 - Superior Roboworks 
79      ~out    904 - D cubed 
80      ~out    5509 - Like a Boss. 
81      ~out    5462 - 2PawR (2 Paw Robotics) 
82      ~in     494 - Martians 
83      ~out    5238 - Falconators 
84      out     5915 - Mercy Midnight Storm 
85      ~out    5534 - Onaway Onabots 
86      ~in     5505 - V2 Robotics 
87      ~out    1189 - The Gearheads 
88      out     6067 - Underdogs 
89      ~in     3707 - Brighton TechnoDogs 
90      ~out    2405 - Techno Trojans 
91      ~in     2054 - Tech Vikes 
92      ~in     217 - ThunderChickens 
93      out     5860 - Full Metal Muskrats 
94      out     5675 - WiredCats 
95      out     5661 - RoboCards 
96      ~out    4956 - Robosharks 
97      ~out    2604 - Metal and Soul 
98      bubble  5907 - Shambots 
99      ~out    245 - Adambots 
100     ~in     3688 - Norsemen 
101     ~out    3667 - Mecanum Knights 
102     ~in     5050 - Cow Town Robotics 
103     bubble  6081 - Digital Dislocators 
104     bubble  6097 - Botcats 
105     bubble  5878 - The Great Lakers 
106     out     280 - TnT 
107     out     5069 - The Iron Giants 
108     ~in     3452 - GreengineerZ 
109     ~in     3886 - More Titans 
110     out     6071 - Bot Central 
111     out     5547 - The Talons 
112     out     4004 - M.A.R.S. Rovers 
113     out     4779 - RoboSapiens 
114     out     5248 - Robo-Saxons 
115     out     5623 - Robotic Rams 
116     out     6020 - JGHS 
117     out     5234 - MarauderBots 
118     bubble  6075 - Leland Zebrotics 
119     out     2048 - The Pink Panthers 
120     bubble  858 - Demons 
121     out     4237 - Team Lance-A-Bot 
122     bubble  6121 - Robo Vikes 
123     bubble  1718 - The Fighting Pi 
124     out     4994 - Kingston Robo-Cards 
125     bubble  5567 - Code Red Robotics 
126     bubble  6002 - ZooBOTix 
127     bubble  6190 - Will-er Run 
128     out     6066 - Rambler Robotics 
129     bubble  5194 - Voltage 
130     out     818 - Steel Armadillos 
131     out     3570 - Pheonix 
132     out     1 - The Juggernauts 
133     bubble  573 - Mech Warriors 
134     bubble  1711 - Raptors 
135     out     1502 - Technical Difficulties 
136     out     5216 - E-Ville Empire 
137     out     5447 - Team Robotica 
138     out     6043 - Allegan Tigers Robotics Team 
139     out     5066 - Singularity 
140     out     5561 - Raider Robotics 
141     out     5473 - Team Spitfire. 
142     out     5560 - Central Lake Trobotics 
143     out     6073 - Cav-Bots 
144     out     6094 - Manic Mechanics 
145     bubble  469 - Las Guerrillas 
146     out     5260 - Owosso Operating System 
147     out     3547 - VIRUS 
148     bubble  3668 - TroBots 
149     out     3175 - Knight Vision 
150     out     4368 - BullBots 
151     out     3603 - Cyber Coyotes 
152     out     815 - Advanced Power 
153     out     5436 - Cyber Cats 
154     bubble  3617 - Cold Logic 
155     bubble  4835 - Junkyard Dawgs 
156     bubble  4967 - That ONE Team 
157     out     5056 - MegaHurtz 
158     out     5224 - Panther Power 
159     out     216 - More RoboDawgs 
160     bubble  4362 - Gems 
161     bubble  3641 - The Flying Toasters 
162     out     5478 - Pershing Doughbots 
163     bubble  201 - The FEDS 
164     out     5229 - Heritage Hawkbots 
165     out     1254 - Tech Force 
166     bubble  6090 - Wayland Wildcats 
167     bubble  2474 - Excel 
168     bubble  3767 - Titan Robotics 
169     out     3632 - D-Techs 
170     out     6152 - ROBO-FALCONS 
171     bubble  2337 - EngiNERDs 
172     out     453 - Rockem Sockem Robotics 
173     bubble  862 - Lightning Robotics 
174     out     5756 - R.E.C'in Crew 
175     bubble  5901 - Cougars 
176     bubble  5230 - The Resistance 
177     bubble  1076 - Pi Hi Samurai 
178     out     288 - The RoboDawgs 
179     bubble  68 - Truck Town Thunder 
180     bubble  6089 - Annapolis Cougars 
181     out     1243 - Dragons 
182     out     5487 - Tiger Robotics 
183     out     6137 - Red Theory 
184     bubble  94 - The Technojays 
185     bubble  5524 - MacroProcessors 
186     bubble  910 - The Foley Freeze 
187     out     5660 - A.R.T. Atherton Robotics Team 
188     out     5674 - The GEARHOUNDS 
189     bubble  3875 - Red Storm Robotics 
190     out     5161 - Trojan Technicians 
191     out     5612 - RoboRaptors 
192     bubble  5555 - Spartans 
193     bubble  51 - The Wings of Fire 
194     out     6119 - Puma's 
195     bubble  470 - Grizzly Robotics 
196     out     5193 - Pantheon 
197     bubble  894 - Chargers 
198     bubble  2075 - Enigma Robotics 
199     bubble  3414 - Hackbots 
200     bubble  6117 - Team Eagle 
201     bubble  4325 - RoboRangers 
202     bubble  5662 - A Flock of Nerds 
203     out     314 - The Megatron Oracles 
204     out     5175 - Robo Panthers 
205     bubble  5470 - Broncos 
206     bubble  4970 - ICE Cubed 
207     bubble  4819 - Flat Mountain Mechanics 
208     out     5486 - Robotic Turmoil 
209     bubble  5963 - CA Frost High School 
210     bubble  6128 - Hart Pirates 
211     bubble  5692 - ChiefBots 
212     bubble  1596 - The Instigators 
213     bubble  5067 - Steiner Steel Storm 
214     bubble  4810 - I AM Robot 
215     bubble  3539 - Byting Bulldogs 
216     out     5182 - Chieftainators 
217     out     4983 - IronBots 
218     out     5688 - Robo Knights 
219     out     5708 - Zebrotics 
220     bubble  5709 - Rudyard Nerf Herders 
221     bubble  4392 - The Deceivers 
222     bubble  2673 - Tenacious Technicians 
223     out     5784 - Vulcans 
224     ~out    6113 - M.A.R.C. 1 
225     ~out    6096 - UPSM Cobras 
226     bubble  4216 - Blue Ops Robotics 
227     bubble  5256 - Atomic Vikings 
228     bubble  302 - The Dragons 
229     bubble  2851 - Crevolution 
230     bubble  5424 - Rogue Robots 
231     bubble  5697 - Bearcats 
232     bubble  1322 - Genesee Robotics Area Youth Te... 
233     ~out    6112 - Stang Nation 
234     out     5251 - WAYbots 
235     bubble  5217 - Robocats 
236     bubble  3773 - Cobalt Commanders 
237     bubble  5525 - Tool Cats 
238     bubble  3542 - S.P.E.E.D 
239     out     313 - The Bionic Zebras 
240     out     5703 - Eagles Crew 
241     bubble  74 - Team C.H.A.O.S. 
242     bubble  5246 - Tech Tribe 
243     bubble  2620 - Titans 
244     out     5156 - Laker Robots 
245     out     5501 - Bobcats 
246     out     5704 - Blended Learning Academies 
247     out     5575 - SHOCK 
248     ~out    6065 - Titanium Dragons 
249     ~out    6208 - Mechstangs 
250     bubble  5072 - Raider Robotics 
251     bubble  703 - Team Phoenix 
252     bubble  3322 - Eagle Imperium 
253     ~out    5622 - Green Hornets 
254     ~out    6093 - Unplugged 
255     bubble  66 - Grizzly Robotics 
256     ~out    5535 - Bionic Bison 
257     ~out    5853 - FEAR The Termigators 
258     ~out    6087 - Cybertronic Lancers 
259     bubble  5152 - Alotobots 
260     bubble  226 - Hammerheads 
261     out     5282 - Railroaders 
262     ~out    6120 - Cyberstangs 
263     ~out    6100 - MSMohawks 
264     ~out    6102 - Mustangs 
265     ~out    5989 - Panthers 
266     ~out    6150 - BlueBotics 
267     ~out    6078 - RoboRams 
268     bubble  830 - The RatPack 
269     bubble  3572 - Wavelength 
270     bubble  4776 - S.C.O.T.S. Bots 
271     out     5226 - Syn. Surgers 
272     out     5201 - Bronco Bots 
273     ~out    6099 - Knight Riders 
274     bubble  5014 - Wildcats 
275     out     4408 - The Robo Panthers 
276     out     244 - RoboDawgs 3D 
277     out     3537 - Delta Force 
278     out     5694 - Hamady Hawks 
279     ~out    5695 - Heavy Duty Eagles 
280     ~out    6114 - Do the Thing 
281     ~out    6019 - Lapeer Homeschool 
282     ~out    6088 - Stephenson Eagles 
283     ~out    6138 - Bulldogs 
284     bubble  4961 - Shock and Awe-sum 
285     bubble  3568 - RoboEagles 
286     ~out    6092 - Q-Bots 
287     ~out    6074 - RoscoBots 
288     ~out    6033 - Gaget Agents 
289     ~out    6122 - Bear Lake 
290     ~out    6108 - DRAGONBOTS 
291     ~out    6079 - Mech Tech 
292     ~out    4855 - Ramageddon 
293     ~out    5774 - Maximum Overload 
294     out     5538 - Vikingbots 
295     ~out    5531 - Orange Crush 
296     ~out    5577 - Kinematic Wolves 
297     ~out    5562 - Laker Logistics 
298     ~out    5642 - Mumford Mustangs 
299     ~out    5650 - Carbonite Crusaders 
300     ~out    6116 - Cougar Robotics 
301     ~out    5927 - iCademy Globetrotters 
302     ~out    5982 - Circuits of Destruction 
303     ~out    3302 - TurboTrojans 
304     ~out    247 - Da Bears 
305     out     5231 - Radical Jays 
306     out     5017 - Pirates 
307     ~out    5745 - Gearheads 
308     ~out    5517 - District 5517 The Engineers on... 
309     ~out    4482 - Intelligent Design [ID Robotic... 
310     ~out    6091 - Eagle 1 
311     ~out    6053 - Magi Pride 
312     ~out    5247 - Red Devil Robotics 
313     ~out    5559 - Gear Grinders 
314     ~out    5467 - RoboTractors 
315     ~out    6011 - Cyber Trojans 
316     ~out    5504 - The Loose Connections 
317     out     4768 - Comets 
318     out     5227 - Eagle Elite 
319     ~out    3398 - Crushing Crusaders 
320     ~out    4827 - Minerbotics 
321     out     5183 - Devil Bots 
322     ~out    5676 - Robo-Hornets 
323     ~out    5530 - The Lawnmowers 
324     ~out    5685 - Robo Terriers 
325     ~out    5713 - Beecher Cyber Bucs 
326     out     4998 - TESLA 
327     ~out    1504 - Desperate Penguins 
328     ~out    4398 - Imprimis Deo 
329     out     5173 - Robohawks 
330     out     5214 - The Mighty CavBots 
331     ~out    4380 - Dynomite 
332     ~out    5263 - Robo-Bucs 
333     ~out    5144 - P.R.E.D.A.T.O.R.S 
334     ~out    835 - The Sting 
335     ~out    4815 - ELECTROPANTHERS 
336     ~out    5641 - Eagles 
337     ~out    5532 - The G.O.A.T.S 
338     ~out    5527 - Cyber Phoenix 
339     ~out    4988 - Yooper Troopers 
340     out     4758 - RoboBlazers 
341     ~out    4851 - JungleBots 
342     ~out    4715 - Big Bay Black Bears 
343     ~out    5498 - Wired Devils 
344     ~out    5603 - Rise of the Warrior Bots 
345     ~out    5706 - Tahquamenon Phenomenon 
346     ~out    5711 - Battling Bathers 
347     ~out    5090 - Torque-Nados 
348     ~out    4811 - Majestic Eagles 
349     ~out    5235 - Gears of Fortune 
350     ~out    5664 - Big Red Robotics 
351     ~out    5702 - Robotawatomis 
352     ~out    5619 - Jaguars 
353     ~out    1896 - Concussive Engineers 
354     ~out    4854 - Trobots 
355     ~out    5574 - P.A.N.T.H.E.R.S. 
356     ~out    5533 - Electric Horse Power 
357     ~out    6005 - Cardinaltronics 
358     ~out    6013 - Robowolves 
359     ~out    6029 - The Railbots 
360     ~out    6057 - Team Edsel 
361     ~out    6077 - Wiking Kujon 
362     ~out    6101 - RoboRaid 
363     ~out    6136 - Ravens 
364     ~out    5213 - St. Ignace SHIELD 
365     ~out    468 - Aftershock 
366     ~out    5068 - The Outsiders 
367     ~out    4409 - Ground Zero 
368     ~out    5204 - Robocats 
369     ~out    4327 - Q Branch 
370     ~out    5316 - The Architects 
371     ~out    5205 - CHS FullMetal-Jackets 
372     ~out    4390 - ATA Coregears 
373     ~out    5162 - The Big Red Theory 
374     ~out    1677 - Quantum Ninjas 
375     out     5255 - Robotic Tigers 
376     ~out    3619 - Blackhawks 
377     ~out    4737 - Atomigators 
378     ~out    240 - Tempest 
379     ~out    4337 - R 13 
380     ~out    322 - Team F.I.R.E. 
381     ~out    2145 - HAZMATs 
382     ~out    2591 - RedTails 
383     ~out    2224 - RoboPhoenix 
384     ~out    4507 - TARminators 
385     ~out    4405 - The Atoms Family 
386     ~out    5197 - DCP @ NW 
387     ~out    4375 - Westend Gearbusters 
388     ~out    3096 - The Village Bulldogs 
389     ~out    4568 - Robot Commander 
390     ~out    1940 - The Tech Tigers 
391     ~out    3458 - Code Blue 
392     ~out    5314 - Ice Bots 
393     ~out    5215 - Steagles 
394     ~out    5523 - RoboWarriors 
395     ~out    5714 - Ojibwe Bots 
396     ~out    5225 - The Shambotz 
397     ~out    2676 - Ecorse Robo Raiders 
398     ~out    5239 - Harper Woods Pioneers 
399     ~out    5257 - CometKaze 
400     ~out    1528 - MTR (Monroe Trojan Robotics) 
401     ~out    2246 - The Army of Sum 
402     ~out    2771 - Code Red Robotics / Stray Dogs 
403     ~out    3234 - Red Arrows 
404     ~out    3536 - Electro Eagles 
405     ~out    4395 - Dundee Vi-Borgs 
406     ~out    4840 - The Panthers 
407     ~out    5008 - (robo)LIONS 
408     ~out    5065 - Knights 
409     ~out    5086 - Cadillac Connectors 
410     ~out    5110 - Elks

[Richard Wallace]

Thanks for taking the time to do this now. However, it will be more helpful after another week.

Right now there are still 13 Michigan teams that have not played at all, and 170 that have only played one event.

[Ed Law]

Thanks for doing this. What is your projection cutoff points at this time?

By the way, please put teams that won district chairman's into the in group no matter how their robot performs. This may reduce the number of spots left and slightly raise the cutoff points.

[Anthony Galea]

Originally Posted by Ed Law

Thanks for doing this. What is your projection cutoff points at this time?

By the way, please put teams that won district chairman's into the in group no matter how their robot performs. This may reduce the number of spots left and slightly raise the cutoff points.

For reference, all Chairman's award winners so far (7 events remain):
1322
1025
3618
33
2604
2834
66
503
3767
2619
68
548
2137
85

[oliviat3357]

Are these in order of current ranking?

[jdunston94]

Originally Posted by oliviat3357

Are these in order of current ranking?

I believe they are. here is the Blue alliances results.
https://www.thebluealliance.com/even.../2016#rankings

[SoftwareBug2.0]

Originally Posted by Ed Law

Thanks for doing this. What is your projection cutoff points at this time?

By the way, please put teams that won district chairman's into the in group no matter how their robot performs. This may reduce the number of spots left and slightly raise the cutoff points.

My best guess for the point cutoff is 69, but the range that I estimate that it could be in is pretty wide: somewhere between 57 and 106. I need to do a better job of making this explicit in the listing since you aren't the first one to ask.

There are several methodological improvements to the script that would make sense to do (like taking Chairman's into account). I'm not planning to do any of them in time for this season though. However, it is easy to rerun the script as if there were a a few less slots at MSC. For example, there are currently four Chairman's winning teams ranked below 102, and rerunning as if there are only 98 slots gives a cutoff between 59 and 107 with a best guess of 72, which is three points higher.

[Basel A]

Originally Posted by SoftwareBug2.0

My best guess for the point cutoff is 69, but the range that I estimate that it could be in is pretty wide: somewhere between 57 and 106. I need to do a better job of making this explicit in the listing since you aren't the first one to ask.

There are several methodological improvements to the script that would make sense to do (like taking Chairman's into account). I'm not planning to do any of them in time for this season though. However, it is easy to rerun the script as if there were a a few less slots at MSC. For example, there are currently four Chairman's winning teams ranked below 102, and rerunning as if there are only 98 slots gives a cutoff between 59 and 107 with a best guess of 72, which is three points higher.

Noticed in the PNW thread that you're consistently underestimating by a couple points, Chairman's could be the cause of that.

[Orthofort]

I projected the point cutoff a number of ways. (Since my team has a vested interest in the cutoff since we have 72 district points)

1. Before the season even started, I made a prediction using last years rankings. I used the ratio of the number of teams from this year to last year, multiplied that by 102 to get about 84th, subtracted a few to fudge for chairman's, and found the district points of that rank in 2015, and got my preseason projection of 71 points being the cutoff.

2. I took the current rankings as of week 4. For any team that just played one event, I added the points they got from their first event, and ranked them. This only gave a score to 391/411 teams since the other 20 hadn't played an event. Then by taking this ratio and multiplying it by 102 we get almost nearly 97. The points of 97th place in these projected rankings is 72 points. This doesn't account for chairman's, but there's also historically a smaller proportion making it from State's from those teams that play week 5 and 6, possibly because the level of competition has already gotten better. So I guessed that these two factors might cancel out. It's worth noting that I did this same method after week 4 last year, and arrived at 65 which was just about the cutoff last year.

3. I took last years district points and using the scores from highest to lowest, made a graph with the x-axis being 1st, 2nd, 3rd, all the way to 345th (ignoring two teams that didn't play events), and the y-axis being pre-MSC points. I then did a regression for this graph with an emphasis on the upper half fitting well. It ended up fitting a 4-parameter logistic curve quite well. Thus, by using the equation y=d+(a-d)/(1+(x/c)^b) I got coefficients of a=167.13, b=0.65, c=106.18, d=-43.16. I then assumed that one would need to be in top 96, thereby accounting for chairman's. Using the figures of 345 teams in 2015, 411 teams in 2016, we again take that ratio and multiply it by 96, and get 80.58. Find y(80.58) and get 71.39. Again getting that the cutoff will be between 71 and 72 (i.e. that some teams with 71 will make it).

Given that I've used three different methods, I am now willing to say with some confidence that the cutoff will be around 72. This does not reassure me (since my team has 72 points!)

[Josh Fox]

I've taken a (admittedly very crude) crack at this, and come up with 107 points as a "worst case" at the conclusion of week 4.

Here is my spreadsheet, where I took 102 slots (?) for MSC, subtracted the 14 teams already qualified via Chairman's or what-have-you, leaving 88 spots. I then used the max amount of points any single team earned at their first comp (76), and added that to every team who hasn't played a second time, and as both event scores for the teams yet to play at all. 106 points would leave you right on the bubble depending on tie breakers. This is viewable when you use the second filter view.

Obviously every team earning 76 points at their next competition isn't at all realistic, but it's early in the morning and I should be sleeping, so a more realistic set of criteria will have to wait until later.

[Ed Law]

Originally Posted by Orthofort

I projected the point cutoff a number of ways. (Since my team has a vested interest in the cutoff since we have 72 district points)

1. Before the season even started, I made a prediction using last years rankings. I used the ratio of the number of teams from this year to last year, multiplied that by 102 to get about 84th, subtracted a few to fudge for chairman's, and found the district points of that rank in 2015, and got my preseason projection of 71 points being the cutoff.

2. I took the current rankings as of week 4. For any team that just played one event, I added the points they got from their first event, and ranked them. This only gave a score to 391/411 teams since the other 20 hadn't played an event. Then by taking this ratio and multiplying it by 102 we get almost nearly 97. The points of 97th place in these projected rankings is 72 points. This doesn't account for chairman's, but there's also historically a smaller proportion making it from State's from those teams that play week 5 and 6, possibly because the level of competition has already gotten better. So I guessed that these two factors might cancel out. It's worth noting that I did this same method after week 4 last year, and arrived at 65 which was just about the cutoff last year.

3. I took last years district points and using the scores from highest to lowest, made a graph with the x-axis being 1st, 2nd, 3rd, all the way to 345th (ignoring two teams that didn't play events), and the y-axis being pre-MSC points. I then did a regression for this graph with an emphasis on the upper half fitting well. It ended up fitting a 4-parameter logistic curve quite well. Thus, by using the equation y=d+(a-d)/(1+(x/c)^b) I got coefficients of a=167.13, b=0.65, c=106.18, d=-43.16. I then assumed that one would need to be in top 96, thereby accounting for chairman's. Using the figures of 345 teams in 2015, 411 teams in 2016, we again take that ratio and multiply it by 96, and get 80.58. Find y(80.58) and get 71.39. Again getting that the cutoff will be between 71 and 72 (i.e. that some teams with 71 will make it).

Given that I've used three different methods, I am now willing to say with some confidence that the cutoff will be around 72. This does not reassure me (since my team has 72 points!)

Great analysis. I think 72 should be very close to the cutoff like you predicted. Can you redo #2 with data from Week 5 and see what the cutoff is? You should be doing this for Michigan every year from now on.

[Coach#3536]

I love to read post predictions with half the data. Way to go

[Orthofort]

Originally Posted by Ed Law

Great analysis. I think 72 should be very close to the cutoff like you predicted. Can you redo #2 with data from Week 5 and see what the cutoff is? You should be doing this for Michigan every year from now on.

Thanks a bunch!

I repeated the analysis on the data. Now, everyone has played one or two events (except one team that I presume will not attend any) and thus we don't need to fudge the number of slots for teams that haven't played. With these projected points, the 102nd slot was the very last team with 72 points. If you account for chairman's winners, which so far there are 5 winners that are below the cutoff. There may be more come week 6, but if you assume 5 auto-qualifiers, then the cutoff is the very last team with 73 points.

This is interesting because it has gone up ever so slightly from last week. But there are other factors at play. There are more teams than usual this year that are playing their second event in week 6 than other weeks (since there were relatively fewer 3rd district slots this year, and a lot of them were are LSSU, for example). This shouldn't bias the data that much, but it reduces the external factor that 3rd district teams tend to do marginally better than teams playing their 2nd district out, because they have more experience in the year. Thus, it implies that the cutoff may be closer to the chairman's fudged cutoff of 73. Either way I think it means that there's room for variance, but it is likely that either all teams with 72 points and some with 71 make it in, or just some teams with 72 make it in (ignoring declines).

On another aside, I dug up this post from last year that presents an approximation based on past years points and only is dependent on % of teams attending. If we use 102 teams out of 410 teams for this year, and plug it into that equation, we get approximately 71.39 points which I thought was just so cool since that's what my totally different regression method got (see #3 from my post). I do think that this formula gives a bit low of a number since it was a bit low last year, and that's probably because it doesn't account for the change in district points last year. I would try to add last year's data point to that data, but I don't know where to find the data from previous years that he used.

[lynca]

Michigan state championship qualification is brutal this year.
If i'm reading the predictions correctly,
great teams like 469, 862 & 910 did not qualify for the state event

Good luck to all the teams at the week 6 events !

[nikeairmancurry]

Saw an interesting thing, Team 66 has won a chairman's award, which auto qualifies them for States, yet you have them '~in".

Just wondering if that is a typo for them.