NEforecast: New England District Championship

[NEforecast]

NEforecast: New England District Championship - April 13-16, 2016
Webcast: https://www.twitch.tv/nefirst_blue
Team List: http://www.thebluealliance.com/event/2016necmp

*Note* In order to get this up the day before load in the final team list has not yet been released.

It's the moment we’ve all been waiting for since kickoff. It's time for the New England District Championship! This weekend 64 teams will make their way to the XL Center in Hartford for an intense weekend of Stronghold. In the end, New England will be sending 35 teams to St. Louis which includes four Chairman’s award winners, two Engineering Inspiration award winners, and two Rookie All-Star award winners.

The progression of the game over the past six weeks has shown quite an evolution of Stronghold leading up to the Hartford District Event in week 5 that put up impressive scores of 195 to 192 in the finals. The first four weeks the finals were dominated by low goal scoring with 194 low goals to 42 high goals in the final matches at seven events. The last three events of the year showed more successful high goal strategies with 100 high goals to 38 low goals scored at three event in seven finals matches.

Expect the pits to be busy as teams use their 30lbs to add new mechanisms and test new autonomous routines to give them whatever edge they can. Teams with a strong chance of qualifying for the Championship before the weekend starts will be trying to improve their chances of playing well in St. Louis. Other teams will be trying to increase their performance in an effort to qualify for the Championship. With District Championship points worth 3x as much, anything can happen.

High goal machines:

As the current #1 seeded team in New England, 1519 has continued their success streak in New England having won both of their events this year and brought home an Engineering Inspiration award at UNH as well as the Chairman's award this past weekend at Pine Tree. Their robot is one of the most advanced in autonomous including high goal routines over the CDF and through the portcullis. Their high release point and fire while driving strategy has made it hard to defend MAYHEM. As winners of the 2015 District Championship they have also made it to the final rounds on 11 fields in the past four seasons.

Speaking of winning last year, 195 is prepared to defend their title as District Champions in 2015 after a tough loss in the final round of the 2014 District Championship. The Cyberknights have found their groove sinking shot after shot into the high goal from around the courtyard. Even under defense their quick shot from the base of the tower is a proven strategy and makes it hard to keep them from destroying your tower. Featuring a one ball auto into the high goal wasn’t enough and can potentially be the first team in New England to pull off a two ball routine on the field.

Despite their low ranks at the end of qualifications in recent weeks, 125 has been ringing the chains all year which led them to four impressive trips to the finals. Their high goal autonomous shot over multiple defenses and safe position at the Outerworks has put them a step above most of the shooting competition and allowed them to take down towers on their own.

After they didn’t qualify last year, 177 was a rumored wild card for this season and in their usual Bobcat fashion they finished in the top of the rankings and walked away as winners at Waterbury and finalists at Hartford. Their high release catapult and wide intake have worked well for them and if they can improve their lineup and stick to the high goal they will be a top machine this weekend.

Batter Beasts like 558 have developed their knack for the high goal from close range. After winning their first event they pulled a fast one and completely rebuilt their robot to feature a smaller drivebase and a simple shooter inspired by 131 that proved their redesign was worth it when they won at Hartford. Finalists at the DCMP in 2014, their simple concepts are followed up by unmatched strategies that play longer on Saturday than most teams.

While they haven’t won an event this year, 176, 5813, 2877, 2067, 5687, 4564, 4909, 2648, 3467, & 4761 have played in the shadows scoring anywhere from three to six boulders consistently in qualifications but fell short of trips to the finals. 166, 2168, & 4048 all made the finals this year with very strong showings at one of their events and will have more to add this weekend. These teams have the opportunity to shake up the weekend if they seed high or band together to form a killer alliance capable of upsetting some of the higher seeds.

Shooters with Scalers:

These combos didn’t see much success in the opening weeks but their presence has helped propel them through the finals. After spending their time at RIDE to add to their robot and test their climber, 1768 arrived eager to come home with another banner after their win at WPI. Their combination of one of the strongest wheeled shooters and elegant climber gave them their #hangshot that helped pull their alliance through the rubber matches at Boston with a win.

Coming out in week 2 with one of the most refined machines of the year, 133 kept tweaking their machine going into Pine Tree and walked away as the #1 pick and winners. With a low bar high shot in auto, Outerworks shooting position, and quick scaler they are a powerhouse on the field. Their decision to use their scaler more this weekend was a wise move and can make them a very valuable pick at District Champs. Like 133, 4564 is another of Maine's accurate shooter-scalers with a batter and outer works shot with deadly accuracy. After some climber problems at WPI, they revamped the system for Pine Tree and came out as one of the best scalers at the event.

After a rough start at Waterbury, 155 perfected their machine and came out on top at UMD and were finalists at Hartford with their close batter shot and reliable scaler. One of the few top teams sporting tank treads they propelled themselves through their events and can find themselves as one of the top picks this weekend.

Other hybrids like 811 & 175 could be a valuable pick in the second round if they can improve their reliability and effectiveness with Boulders.

Low Goal Demons:

Even though the game is evolving, the low goal minded machines are still finding themselves at the top of the rankings and playing deep into the elimination rounds with their focus on consistent capturing in the heat of play. 1058 had a breakout year with three event wins and is the only team in New England to do so in 2016. Their consistent low goals and top notch scaling mechanism have been hard to stop. During their third event they began adding a shooting mechanism to their robot and this weekend they could find themselves on the tails of the top shooting machines if they have used their two weeks wisely.

With their first two banners under their belts as the #1 seed and semi-finalists in Maine, 319 is one of New England's fastest and most reliable machines to the low goal. Their combination of a wide intake, practiced drive team, and efficient drivebase allow them seamlessly move Boulders quickly around the field. Their high goal shot has been steadily improving and was successful in autonomous as well.

With two finalist appearances and a win in North Carolina, 238 has been playing a consistent game and hasn’t finished below rank 3 at the end of their qualification rounds. Their abilities to quickly breach, cross multiple defenses in autonomous, and potential for climbing this weekend can make them a steal in the elimination rounds as key to ball starvation.

As the #1 pick at both of their events, 78 was a strong Boulder mover that played a key role in their elimination captures and keeping their shooting partners fed. Despite their smart play they exited as finalists in week 1 and semi-finalists in week 3. Even with most of their efforts focused down low they have been increasing their attempts and success rate into the high goal.

Winners at RIDE, 228 has strong potential for scoring in the high goal but found their consistency down low. Despite some mechanical failures they stayed seeded high in qualification rounds and led their alliance to a long overdue banner.

With ball management playing a key factor in the success of high goal robots in elimination rounds, teams like 4905, 1831, 839, 6153, 95, 246, 2370, 88, 1100, 1729, & 1153 can be a wild card on an alliance or if they find themselves in the top eight on Saturday morning.

For fun this week came up with two eliminations brackets and are polling to ask which alliance do you think will pull out the win this weekend. Will the #1 alliance be too powerful or is the field deep enough you think a lower seeded alliance will overcome the odds. Feel free to post your own predictions for alliances!

Predicted Elimination Bracket 1

195, 1519, 4905
558, 125, 2168
319, 177, 5687
230, 1768, 228
1058, 133, 3467
2067, 155, 2648
238, 4564, 5813
2877, 78, 176

Predicted Elimination Bracket 2

1519, 133, 2067
558, 195, 2877
319, 1058, 4905
1768, 125, 176
4564, 177, 839
238, 78, 228
166, 2648, 5813
155, 5687, 3467

CHAIRMAN’S AWARD

At the New England District Championship, 10 teams compete for the Chairman’s Award. Of those 10, four will receive the Chairman’s Award and an invitation to compete for the Chairman’s Award at World Championships.

Locks:

125: With their consistent mentoring and assisting of teams through their quick build, BeanTown Blitz offseason event, Latino STEM Alliance, & STEM pipeline, it will be no surprise to see this team be one of the four that will compete for the CA at Worlds.

230: Mentoring FRC Team 3634 and four FLL teams, running an FLL qualifier, hosting the CT state event, and sending 22 FRC teams an MXP expansion breakout board to 4 different countries, this team is a role model to others.

2648: Starting 12 FRC teams in five years, mentoring three FLL teams, running an FRC Training Day and running their offseason event Mainely SPIRIT, this team has consistently shown that they can be one of the four teams that takes home the Chairman’s Award at New England District Championships.

4905: With their annual Tech Kid nights, CAD and Robotics Fun patches, numerous outreach events, FLL teams, and inspiring their school to have more STEM classes, this team has the potential to win their first New England Chairman’s Award.

Other recipients from this year:

4761 The Robockets - North Shore
4176 The Iron Tigers - UMass Dartmouth
166 The Chop Shop - UNH
558 The Robosquad - Hartford
467 The Colonials - Boston
1519 Mechanical MAYHEM - Pine Tree

[Jay O'Donnell]

It feels like a much deeper field in New England this year than the first two dcmps. I'm excited to come down and see how it plays out. Lots of great teams near the top of the list, and some sleepers in the alliance selection will definitely make the difference.

Scouting and making sure you find that sleeper to fit into your alliance will be the key to winning this weekend.

I'll post a prediction for alliances myself soon.

[CTbiker105]

Originally Posted by NEforecast

Predicted Elimination Bracket 1

195, 1519, 4905
558, 125, 131
319, 177, 5687
230, 1768, 228
1058, 133, 3467
2067, 155, 2648
238, 4564, 5813
2877, 78, 176

Predicted Elimination Bracket 2

1519, 133, 2067
558, 195, 2877
319, 1058, 4905
1768, 125, 176
4564, 177, 839
238, 78, 228
166, 2648, 5813
155, 5687, 3467

Both of these brackets would result in some of the most competitive elimination rounds New England has ever seen (although I can't imagine 2067 being left for the 24th pick in the second bracket). The hype for Saturday is real.

[NEforecast]

Please, if anyone is interested, post about your predicted brackets and comments! We love hearing from the community!

[vikesrock777]

Originally Posted by CTbiker105

Both of these brackets would result in some of the most competitive elimination rounds New England has ever seen (although I can't imagine 2067 being left for the 24th pick in the second bracket). The hype for Saturday is real.

To be fair, would you have predicted 2067 being around for the 24th pick of the draft last year?

[BrendanB]

Originally Posted by CTbiker105

Both of these brackets would result in some of the most competitive elimination rounds New England has ever seen (although I can't imagine 2067 being left for the 24th pick in the second bracket). The hype for Saturday is real.

I couldn't have imagined that either last year. One of the best (and only) landfillers who could make two stacks somehow slipped to 24th! I only wish we were an alliance captain because they were 4th on our picklist.

[Jay O'Donnell]

1 558 195 2877
2 1519 133 5687
3 78 125 228
4 1058 2168 3467
5 177 230 126
6 319 1768 166
7 238 155 2067
8 5813 4564 176

Obviously the rankings are very dependent on schedules when you have so many teams that can get the majority of balls needed to capture on their own. I think 558 and 195 team up at the number 1 seed like they did in 2014, but the path to the finals is even tougher. Just for fun, I'm going to look at the individual fake match ups (I'm bored and have 30 minutes until a class). These will be totally inaccurate and are just for fun, if you don't like them go prove me wrong! (and rub it in my face if you see me on saturday)

Quarterfinals:

(1) 558-195-2877 vs (8) 5813-4564-176

Despite the double climb from the 8th seed, I think 558 and 195 have enough firepower to outscore the 8th alliance. 5813 still cements their place as the best rookie robot in New England.

(4) 1058-2168-3467 vs (5) 177-230-126

A very even 4 vs 5 matchup goes to three matches and is a battle of offense only. The final match sees 1058's climber as the difference maker.

(3) 78-125-228 vs (6) 319-1768-166

This set also goes to three matches and 166 gets on a hot streak for their outer works shooting to pull out the upset.

That or 228 gets another bolt stuck in their drivetrain gearbox

(2) 1519-133-5687 vs (7) 238-155-2067

The high goal shooting prowess of the 2nd seeded alliance proves to be too much for 238's low goaling ability and 155's climb.

Semifinals:

(1) 558-195-2877 vs (4) 1058-2168-3467

1st alliance pulls out the victory in a very close set of three matches. The pure offensive power of the Cyberknights and RoboSquad proves to be too much for the 4th seed to overcome.

(2) 1519-133-5687 vs (6) 319-1768-166

6th seeded alliance pulls out another upset to make it to the finals. 1768 and 166 prove to be enough to overcome to long distance shooting of 1519 and 133, and 319's speedy low goals provide the extra boost needed to get through match 3.

Finals:

(1) 558-195-2877 vs (6) 319-1768-166

The alliances are fairly evenly matched, and 2877 ends up being the difference maker with some great defense and clutch shots at the end of the matches.

Obviously these shouldn't be taken too seriously, anything can happen once the matches start being played. I hope someone enjoyed reading this, can't wait to see the real results this weekend!

[CTbiker105]

Originally Posted by vikesrock777

To be fair, would you have predicted 2067 being around for the 24th pick of the draft last year?

Haha, very true! To this day, our scouting and strategy leads can't fathom how a team like that was overlooked by so many other alliances for so long.

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by Jay O'Donnell

[snip]

1519-195-181 SF
558-133-131 F
177-319-2067 SF
238-125-1100
1058-1768-2648 W
228-4564-78
839-5813-175
95-155-230

Just some predictions I did on my own earlier. I love doing these .

[Jay O'Donnell]

Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard

1519-195-181 SF
558-133-131 F
177-319-2067 SF
238-125-1100
1058-1768-2648 W
228-4564-78
839-5813-175
95-155-230

Just some predictions I did on my own earlier. I love doing these .

Love how you have 1058 winning and I didn't because I didn't want to seem too biased.

[Dan Petrovic]

I'd like to know more about how the Chairman's predictions are made.

There's no way NEforecast has access to every team's essay, nor what qualities the judges will value over others, nor what questions the judges will ask of the teams in their interviews, nor how well the teams present themselves in the interview room.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but there just isn't enough information available to make meaningful predictions, especially ones that are as definite as these.

Anyway, on to the tournament analysis:

Originally Posted by Jay O'Donnell

Finals:

(1) 558-195-2877 vs (6) 319-1768-166

I accept this outcome.

[Jay O'Donnell]

Just because there multiple posts with 131 in them, just a note that 131 is declining their spot, as shown here: http://frc-districtrankings.firstinspires.org/2016/NE

[NEforecast]

Originally Posted by BrendanB

I couldn't have imagined that either last year. One of the best (and only) landfillers who could make two stacks somehow slipped to 24th! I only wish we were an alliance captain because they were 4th on our picklist.

Don't forget what happened on Newton and Hopper - the #3 robot for OPR (2512 on Hopper, 1671 for Newton) slipped all the way to 24th and those alliances performed incredibly well throughout the eliminations at Champs.

[Bmarshall645]

Thanks for the awesome post as always! We can't wait to show everyone what we got this weekend! We have been fine tuning and we have a couple surprises prepared for the weekend.

[Aidan Cox]

Originally Posted by Jay O'Donnell

Just because there multiple posts with 131 in them, just a note that 131 is declining their spot, as shown here: http://frc-districtrankings.firstinspires.org/2016/NE

This is true. For logistics reasons, 131 has decided not to attend this year's NEDCMP. As a team with more-limited resources, we simply did not perform as well as we would have liked to in our district events to warrant the use of those resources for District Champs. We had a great official season nonetheless, and very much look forward to playing with everyone at the various off-seasons.

I personally will be down there Saturday to check things out. Looking forward to some wicked crazy matches, New England style. Congrats and good luck to those competing this weekend.

-Aidan