IRI 2016 Predictions

[ASD20]

Originally Posted by BMSOTM

It was really the only option for #1. I just watched the higher scoring semifinals match of each alliance again, and counted up teleop high goals for each robot:

• 2056: 6*
• 118: 5*
• 33: 5*
• 1114: 4
• 195: 10
• 225: 5

*Had a hard time seeing a bit of the match when the camera focused on the 1619/133 tipping debacle.
In addition, #2 had an additional scale over #1.
When both alliances run triple offense, math says that #2 outscores #1 (barring something as dramatic as 195's auto failing, which is not something to count on). By putting 33 on defense, they free up easy-to-grab boulders for 2056/118 to score, let's say, 3 extra goals (guesstimate). If 33 defending prevents #2 from scoring 3 boulders, it is worth it. With 1114 shooting only from the batter and 195 preferring a (reasonably defendable) shot in the left courtyard (not that they don't shoot well from other locations, they just do their best in that one), taking three high goals off this alliances doesn't seem like a particular difficult task (with some skilled driving, of course).

Considering that:

• Alliance #2 scored 13 and 14 teleop high goals in finals; under 33's defense, they scored 5-6 fewer goals
• Alliance #1 scored 18 teleop high goals in both finals matches, 1-2 more than with 33 playing offense, so 2056/118 scored 5-6 (!) more goals

having 33 play offense was not only a smart idea, but necessary for #1 to be able to outscore #2 and take the win. Props to 33 for being willing to play defense and the alliance as a whole for realizing the advantage it would confer.

These eliminations matches leave me with one big question: why did 2056 choose 118 over 195? Not that the Robonauts don't have a phenomenal robot, but looking at scouting data, 195 seems to have been the bot with both more consistency and a higher ceiling, especially considering 2-ball auto. I think it may have been due to 2056 playing with 118 earlier in the year at GTR-East, but I'd love some insight as to why they chose the way they did.

I think 2056 vs 195 (both IRI and Einstein) will be remembered as one of the all time greatest examples of the power of defense.

[Karthik]

Originally Posted by jtrv

W. 2481, 67, 2468, 3620
F. 195, 133, 494, 5254
SF. 330, 118, 27, 1619
SF. 2056, 1241, 1023, 217
QF. 225, 1806, 1746, 2590
QF. 2451, 16, 4587, 20
QF. 3683, 179, 2052, 1718
QF. 3130, 33, 1024, 2338

I'm a big fan of 1114, but 2016 just isn't their year.

Originally Posted by thatprogrammer

I think 1114 did a bit better than you expected

[efoote868]

But Karthik, that so totally is your business!

[jtrv]

Originally Posted by Karthik

I regret doubting you, Mr. Karthik.

Originally Posted by thatprogrammer

I think 1114 did a bit better than you expected

Yeah, I was wrong, and I know I was. I used a prediction model for this, and this was the first iteration and its first attempt at guessing results. Obviously, it needs some adjustments, and I didn't expect it to get anything right the first time.

Plus, some others made some just as bold predictions...

[PatrickSJ]

Originally Posted by thatprogrammer

I think 1114 did a bit better than you expected

From where I was standing in the driver station during our semi-final matches against 1114's alliance, it sounded like the chains never stopped ringing. I still can't get that sound out of my head.

But for real, thanks to 67, 3683, and 5254 for some awesome matches! and congrats to 2056, 118, 33 and 4587 on the W!

[XaulZan11]

There's been a couple teams showcasing their new 2 ball autonomous modes. Is there any team (that doesn't have a consistent 1 ball) planning a defensive autonomous mode? I think it would be cool (and valuable) to see a team drive over the defense, drop their ball off and then driving back to the midline to disrupt an opponents 2 ball auto.

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by XaulZan11

There's been a couple teams showcasing their new 2 ball autonomous modes. Is there any team (that doesn't have a consistent 1 ball) planning a defensive autonomous mode? I think it would be cool (and valuable) to see a team drive over the defense, drop their ball off and then driving back to the midline to disrupt an opponents 2 ball auto.

Alternatively, don't start with a ball, and first thing go and pick up the center ball.

That being said, teams often show things prior to competition that don't work while in the competition. We'll see if these autonomous modes actually work, and whether all the teams will be showing up on their A-game (they so rarely do).

I'm excited for another great IRI!

[Cash4587]

We will likely have a 2 ball block ready for IRI. It is easy for us to do with our robot needing no modification to implement dropping the ball, then picking up the one on the center line.

[Liam Fay]

My predictions are as follows:

2056 118 1024 868
133 195 2451 494
1241 3620 3130 5460
225 179 3824 71
67 1114 2052 4587
330 16 27 3641
2481 33 217 5254
3683 2771 2013 1806

[Banderoonies]

Anyone know where IRI will be webcast from?

[Collin Fultz]

Originally Posted by Banderoonies

Anyone know where IRI will be webcast from?

http://livestream.com/indianafirst

[BrennanB]

0-1 - 5 ball autons will go 5/5.

0 - 5 ball autos will affect the outcome of the match.

#predictions

[Kevin Leonard]

Originally Posted by Liam Fay

My predictions are as follows:

2056 118 1024 868
133 195 2451 494
1241 3620 3130 5460
225 179 3824 71
67 1114 2052 4587
330 16 27 3641
2481 33 217 5254
3683 2771 2013 1806

Results?

[Richard Wallace]

Originally Posted by Kevin Leonard

Results?

I predict the winning IRI alliance will include one team from Canada and one team from Michigan.

And one team from Indiana.

[Rangel(kf7fdb)]

Winner Prediction:
195-330-503-1086