Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds

[Joe Johnson]

There is a lot of talk about High Efficiency Goal Shooting that is, well, kinda crazy if you ask me.

There are a lot of threads discussing this or that aspect of H.E.G shooting (e.g. Realistic high goal scoring rate). The general tone seems to imply that air above a STEAMWORKS Field is going to be thick with fuel on its way to clogging the counter mechanisms in the boilers.

On a more sobering note, I have published Dr. Joe's 3 "Don't Bother Unless..." Rules For High Efficiency Goal Shooting which includes this prediction:

"High Efficiency Goal Shooting is going to be a boneyard of time suck for so so many teams."

On this issue at least I seem to be at odds with the CD community.

To try to gain allignment, I propose the following thought experiment:

Consider the teams at Worlds playing in the qualifying matches. For each team you can calculate a median number of balls that they scored in the High Efficiency Goal (note I prefer ball count not Kpa as it makes explicit how many balls we are talking about). Consider the population of these median numbers.

1. 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of ___ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

I am really interested in what people think these numbers will be. I have a guess but from what I can infer, my guesses are much lower than the general CD population.

I am very serious. I ask all CD to provide your best guess as to these 4 numbers.

Cheers,
Dr. Joe J.