Predicting Actual High Efficiency Goal Shooting at Worlds

[TJP123]

1 out of _50__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of _80__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of _500__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
1 out of _the world_ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

[Taylor]

1. 1 out of _10__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of _20__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of _25__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of _sideways 8__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Explanation: Indiana has roughly 50 teams in it. I could see five of those teams >50. I could see two robots at each event >100, and an event has 30-40 teams. If a team can hit >100, they can probably hit >200. As for >400, that would involve a comeback of the 2006 A-Bomb.

[dv/dt]

1.1 out of _50__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2.1 out of _100__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3.1 out of _300__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4.1 out of _1500__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Interesting that you chose median and not mean. To that, in qual rounds, at least half of your matches will have alliance partners that struggle to get 6 gears between the two of them. So will you focus on the other 6 gears for higher points or fuel?

I can see a team that is capable of shooting 150+ balls in a match as making the decision to get the fuel RP and stopping at 100 balls and then finishing the gears. But more often than not they will need to focus on gears for the higher point value and skip fuel.
Note that 100 balls is 1 RP if you get your 10 in auto, then 90 in teleop.

I've been a long term pessimist though.

[Gaurav27]

1. 1 out of 4 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 9 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 63 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of 420 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

[TJP123]

Originally Posted by TJP123

1 out of _50__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of _80__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of _500__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
1 out of _the world_ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Does it count as an edit if I change to this:
1 out of _503__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200

[Joe Johnson]

Originally Posted by TJP123

Does it count as an edit if I change to this:
1 out of _503__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200

I'll allow it. Consider your priority date intact and your guess as 503.

Dr. Joe J.

[Joe Johnson]

Two things.

First, no clever stats person has stepped up to say they will make an "OPR-type" statistical estimator of median High Efficiency Goal ball count so... ...another $20 gift card prize that will never be claimed

Second, how would people change their answer if instead of MEDIAN H.E.G. ball count the question asked to predict MAX H.E.G. ball count? Specifically, how would you fill in the following 8 blanks:

1. 1 out of ___/___ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of ___/___ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of ___/___ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of ___/___ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Your thoughts are welcome.

Dr. Joe J.

[Joseph Smith]

1 out of 3/2 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of 10/5 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of 100/40 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >200
1 out of 600/600 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >400

[Chris is me]

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson

Two things.

First, no clever stats person has stepped up to say they will make an "OPR-type" statistical estimator of median High Efficiency Goal ball count so... ...another $20 gift card prize that will never be claimed

Second, how would people change their answer if instead of MEDIAN H.E.G. ball count the question asked to predict MAX H.E.G. ball count? Specifically, how would you fill in the following 8 blanks:

1. 1 out of ___/___ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of ___/___ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of ___/___ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of ___/___ teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >400

Your thoughts are welcome.

Dr. Joe J.

I'm just going to submit my guess for median HEG ball count as a guess for max HEG ball count. I feel like my median guess was too high so this would make for a nice hedge of my bet.

[Taylor]

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson

Second, how would people change their answer if instead of MEDIAN H.E.G. ball count the question asked to predict MAX H.E.G. ball count?

My estimate remains the same. If a team can hit that kind of accuracy, then that team can do it consistently.

[Raysaran]

1.1 out of _4__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2.1 out of _9__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3.1 out of _50__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4.1 out of _300__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

I think the balls are light enough that doing 100 is pretty reasonably easy for many teams. If you consider the ability to just dump the 50 balls from the hopper into your robot, that cuts intake time down by a ton.

So assuming it takes 25 seconds lump sum for you to collect 100 balls, (5 seconds for dump and 20 seconds for ground pickup)

Also estimating the approximate time to shoot these 100 balls, assuming you are shooting at a moderate rate of 2 balls, you are looking at about 50-55 seconds to shoot all of the balls.

I think my estimated times and firing rates are really conservative estimates.

Basically 55 + 25 = 80 seconds.

I think a team that does 1 or 2 gears would still reasonably shoot 100, a robot just shooting balls could get close to 200.

However, getting 400 is a lot of black magic to me, someone broke something about the game to be able to score that much. I don't think you'll ever see the number that high.

Playing around with our prototypes/ some initial software control we have yet to find a way to get 100% accuracy on shooting more than 2 balls per second.

If anyone has better results/ think I really missed something important on my estimates please let me know!

[Poseidon5817]

1 out of 3/2 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >50
1 out of 10/8 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >100
1 out of 30/20 teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >200
No teams will have a median/max H.E.G. ball count that is >400

[piersklein]

1. 1 out of 10 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2. 1 out of 30 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3. 1 out of 300 teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4. 1 out of all teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400

[Aiden Jacobs]

You Have 135 seconds of teleoperate period assuming you shot at 100% accuracy for the whole time (other teams feeding you fuel) at 2 balls per second you sore 270 balls+ 10 balls in auto. That is 100 points. I think barely any matches will exceed 200 balls. I think playing defense and seeing if you can prevent the gear cycles will be more valuable. especially if you can prevent all four rotors.

[Bkeeneykid]

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson

Two things.

First, no clever stats person has stepped up to say they will make an "OPR-type" statistical estimator of median High Efficiency Goal ball count so... ...another $20 gift card prize that will never be claimed

While I'm no "Clever Stats Person", I believe The Blue Alliance is going to try and use OPR on fuel scored this year per event, which could then be quite easily compounded into a median or average for each team. None of this has been accomplished yet (AFAIK) because FIRST hasn't released their API that TBA feeds off of. I'd be happy to make a quick thing to calculate this once their API is finished.


Meanwhile, my predictions are as follows.
1.1 out of _5__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >50
2.1 out of _15__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >100
3.1 out of _150__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >200
4.1 out of _500__ teams will have a median H.E.G. ball count that is >400