What autonomous modes will teams have?

[Poseidon5817]

What maximum autonomous capability do you think various levels of robots will have?

1. Elite teams (Top 1%)
2. Alliance captain teams
3. Median teams
4. Low-level teams

Do you think elite teams will be able to score multiple gears in autonomous? Will low-level teams be able to consistently score a single gear? I'd love to hear your thoughts.

[Chris is me]

1. 50/60 balls in high goal
2. 8/10 balls in high goal, possibly plus gear and / or emptying a hopper
3. One gear 50% of the time
4. Drive forward

No one will score a second gear in autonomous in 2017.

Autonomous scoring involving moving the drivetrain will never be consistent for a low-level team, because consistent driving to a specific location is hard. But I'd say some will be able to.

[Gravity]

Originally Posted by Chris is me

1. 50/60 balls in high goal
2. 8/10 balls in high goal, possibly plus gear and / or emptying a hopper
3. One gear 50% of the time
4. Drive forward

No one will score a second gear in autonomous in 2017.

Autonomous scoring involving moving the drivetrain will never be consistent for a low-level team, because consistent driving to a specific location is hard. But I'd say some will be able to.

Although I think two-gear autos are a stretch, I do think we will see at least one team attempt it. Last year people thought two-boulder autos were impossible until a certain point.

[markmcgary]

An auto that scores two gears would be worth 100 pts. (40 of those post-Auto when the second gear is placed) and no RP.

An auto that scores one gear plus 40+ fuel in the HE boiler is 100+ pts. plus 1 RP, all during auto. I think we'll see this one.

[Lil' Lavery]

I'm certain there will be teams capable of placing two gears on lifts before the end of autonomous. I am less certain they will do so with enough time for the second gear to be placed on a rotor and spun up for autonomous bonus points.

[Nathan Streeter]

Originally Posted by Chris is me

1. 50/60 balls in high goal
2. 8/10 balls in high goal, possibly plus gear and / or emptying a hopper
3. One gear 50% of the time
4. Drive forward

No one will score a second gear in autonomous in 2017.

Autonomous scoring involving moving the drivetrain will never be consistent for a low-level team, because consistent driving to a specific location is hard. But I'd say some will be able to.

I think Chris's estimates for the 4 tiers are spot on.

I agree about the two-gear auto (if you mean a single team scoring 2 gears to enable 2 rotors spun in auto), and I'll explain why... I think it's achievable for a team to place two gears on a lift or lifts in auto, but I don't think it will be anyone's "go to" auto, because 1) the fact that the HP in the airship needs to lift the second gear and spin up a rotor to make it count in auto (while a partner contributes the third gear for the second rotor) makes it very hard to see the full benefit of a 2 gear auto, 2) it requires more partner interaction than is typical in complex autos, 3) the teams that could use a two-gear auto will often prefer to take advantage of the 1:1 HG scoring efficiency in auto, and 4) very few teams - even among elite teams - will have gear floor pickups.

[thatnameistaken]

Edit: Disregard this post. Math was way off.

[Chris is me]

Originally Posted by Gravity

Although I think two-gear autos are a stretch, I do think we will see at least one team attempt it. Last year people thought two-boulder autos were impossible until a certain point.

I really don't think anyone serious about it thought two ball autos were impossible. Nothing in the rules prevented them and it was heavily discussed as a viable option.

Multiple game piece autonomous modes, when they are easy and require zero robot coordination, are extremely rare. 2011 and 2014 were the only years they got vaguely common, and the reason for that is simple - you were allowed to leave a preloaded game piece on the floor in an area where you were allowed to freely move in. In 2016 this got more difficult because of the line restrictions and also the defenses, so it got even more rare.

What makes it so unlikely this year, is that you need to not only rely on your partners giving the gears up, but they need to repeatably DROP them for auton to be possible. There are a few vaguely repeatable ways to do this, but combined with the relatively low reward of a two gear autonomous mode (with help, you get... 20 extra points) it's not a task that's going to happen this year.

Teams that are very good at autonomous have a completely different game piece that is dramatically more rewarding to score in autonomous mode than a gear, which is a modest bonus.

[Tom Line]

Here is our favorite autonomous by far..... I'm sure we'll run it again this year. We are on the blue alliance, and you can't miss us.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cReB8jw-ccI

[throwaway]

Originally Posted by Chris is me

1. 50/60 balls in high goal

There will definitely be teams that can score that much in auto but I don't think it'll be 1%, I would guess half that at most.

[Ari423]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

I'm certain there will be teams capable of placing two gears on lifts before the end of autonomous. I am less certain they will do so with enough time for the second gear to be placed on a rotor and spun up for autonomous bonus points.

Unless I'm missing something, you need 3 robot placed gears in auto to get auto points for 2 rotors. You can't remove the gimme gear (as I like to call it) in auto, and you need 3 gears to get the first 2 rotors.

[dirtbikerxz]

Originally Posted by Ari423

Unless I'm missing something, you need 3 robot placed gears in auto to get auto points for 2 rotors. You can't remove the gimme gear (as I like to call it) in auto, and you need 3 gears to get the first 2 rotors.

Also there is no way 1 robot can place 2 gears. To get a gear you need to go to the other side of the field, which is illegal in auto.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by Chris is me

Teams that are very good at autonomous have a completely different game piece that is dramatically more rewarding to score in autonomous mode than a gear, which is a modest bonus.

If a top tier team is gunning for a hopper autonomous, what are their partners doing?

Originally Posted by Ari423

Unless I'm missing something, you need 3 robot placed gears in auto to get auto points for 2 rotors. You can't remove the gimme gear (as I like to call it) in auto, and you need 3 gears to get the first 2 rotors.

There's three teams on an alliance.

Originally Posted by dirtbikerxz

Also there is no way 1 robot can place 2 gears. To get a gear you need to go to the other side of the field, which is illegal in auto.

Up to three gears start on your side of the field at the beginning of autonomous. They just have to be initially supported by a robot.

[jeremylee]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

If a top tier team is gunning for a hopper autonomous, what are their partners doing?

Placing the other 2 gears...

[GeeTwo]

I'm going to come at it the other way - identify autonomous goals and prognositcate as to how many teams will achieve them. In order from most to least,then:

60%-70% of teams will be able to cross the baseline most of the time by the end of their first event, 90%-95% of CMP teams will do so most of the time.

20%-30% of teams will deliver an auto gear at three or more qual matches in their first event. 45% to 55% at CMP.

Less than 3% of teams will ever deliver two auto gears in the same match. Less than 1% will do it three matches in a row.

15%-25% of teams will score at least one kPa autonomously in three matches at their first event.

3% to 7% of teams will score at least five kPA autonomously in three matches at their first event.

1% to 2% of teams will score at least 10 kPa autonomously in three matches at their first event.

At the other end of the match:
45-55% of teams will be "ready for takeoff" in at least three matches of their first event. 80+% of teams who enter elims will have climbed at least three matches (weeks 2 to 5). At CMP, 85%-95% will climb in at least half of their matches, and it will be unusual for a non-climbing robot to go to elims; the average shall be less than 2 per division.