Predictions: The Big Show -- Newton

[Joe Johnson]

There are just too many teams to pick from. Really. I have managed to whittle my tips & locks down to a manageable list of 12 Teams per Division.

Tips: A team to watch. Should have a pretty good run after lunch on Saturday.

Lock: This is a team that I feel has a better than 50% chance of making it to the finals of their division.

Here we go...

TIPS:

From a tipster:

Many components of this team were on Einstein just two years ago, but under a different name and number. The 39th Aero Squadron is the reincarnation of one of the legendary teams in FIRST history, 64 (The Gila Monsters). 39 won Arizona, and made it to the Vegas finals. One of the top 10 autonomous scorers in FIRST, they will make an impact in Newton. Their 30 point forklift will help bail them out of some sticky situations in both the qualifications and eliminations, but they will rely on their scoring ability for most of the heavy lifting. They will likely be a late first round selection (5-7 range), so the other two teams on their alliance will be very important to their ability to go far in the tournament.

10-1-3 seeding record from NJ & MD. They were Champs in MD and they were Chairman's Award winners in NJ. #75 should definitely be in the hunt on Newton.

The Berkley Bears (#247) are one of the best defensive ramps I saw this year. While you would think from looking at it that they may have trouble with folks climbing the ramp, in practice, they are a solid, easily climbed ramp (and they lift the second robot with a Dewalt powered scissor lift). Tough team. They have 2 Championships (Detroit & Pitt) to show for it.

#573, the Mech Warriors had a great run at the Great Lakes (Champions!) they had a less great run in Indiana. Even so, they can put up a lot of tubes. I think that they are in a position to seed well on Newton. With the right partners, they could go far (full disclosure -- this is my daughter's team and while I didn't really help the team too much I am far from a dispassionate observer).

Finalists in Las Angeles, Followed up with a Championship in San Diego. The Circuit Breakers (#696) should be a top team on Newton.

Next 2 from a tipster:

987 struggled a bit at the highly defensive regional in San Jose, but emerged as a very strong scoring machine in Vegas, making it to the finals. They were the #2 seed on Newton last year, and certainly don't want to back down. Championship is always a crap shoot, and the High Rollers certainly aren't afraid to roll the dice. 987 might be an gem in the middle-later stages of the draft, and will do very well in Atlanta.

1038 brought home a pair of silvers this year. They were arguably the best team on Galileo last year, and I guarantee they want the gold. The thunderhawks are a fast and deadly scoring machine, with the capability to score on the top row during autonomous. If they can get a powerful scorer to aid them (like 68, 111, 148, or 177), they might be taking home some hardware.

They were 1/3rd of "The Triplets" last year. They are 1/2 of "The Twins" this year. Whatever. Just be glad there are fewer of them this year than last #1503 is just plain good.

My only Tip from outside North America: #1574 had an awesome run in the GM/Technion Israel. We tipped them then, we are sticking with them for Newton. Keep your eye on them they should have a good run.


LOCKS:

The Killer Bees (#33) continue to disappoint me but I am not going to give up on them. In fact, I am upping the ante. I think they are going to finally hit their stride in the Dome. Look for a strong scoring machine with all the kinks worked out of their robot, their drivers, their strategy and even their autonomous scoring. Lock & load.

Wildstang had to work for it in Western Michigan. They were not as dominant as they were in IL where they won the Championship but they were still a force to be reckoned with in their Finalist finish in Grand Rapids. I look for #111 to be the class of Newton and to be a likely Champion - not just a finalist. Definitely Einstein capabilities here. From a tipster with regard to #111:

111 isn't quite as dominant as we expect Wildstang to be. But few teams have been in 2007, but 'stang has won when it counts, in the eliminations. We witnessed the return of the Wildstang swerve, and it's worked tremendously so far, guiding them to the Midwest Championship, and the West Michigan finals (which, if not for 1504s penalties, they would have won as well). They unveiled a highly successful autonomous in Michigan, but with their tracking method, it makes it very difficult for a partner to score as well. Arguments can be made on the importance of having a pair of keepers, but it certainly can't help not having that option. Look for Raul (the Magnificent) to lead the guys and gals from Rolling Meadows and Wheeling into at least the Newton semis.

Last Lock in Newton: #148 -- I have picked them before. They are just an awesome team with an awesome robot. I will get out with a quote from at tipster:

148 is probably the best tube scoring machine in the division. Finalist (and if 217s arm didn't break, Champions) in St. Louis, Semi-finalists in Lonestar. The Robowranglers have their first serious chance to win the Championship event since they won in 1993. They've been limited by their partners at both regionals, but they should be able to find appropriate help in Newton, the question is, will they?

BONUS:
Too many teams in Newton to keep it to just 12. Sorry I have to add a few.

2 quick bonus teams to mention from a tipster:

• 1885 was arguably the best ramp at both of their regionals (VCU and Vegas). The Robocats updated their manipulator in Vegas too, and can score 2-3 tubes before having to drop their (reliable, large, and easy to climb) ramps. They cannot reach the top row, and that might hurt last year's rookie all-star deeper in the elimination rounds. Watch for this purple team to be another later selection gem.
• 2068 is my rookie to watch out for. A simple, reliable ramp. With some proper qualification pairing, they could make it to the Top 8, but it is (by no measure) a guarantee.

Joe J.

[MasterChief 573]

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson

#573, the Mech Warriors had a great run at the Great Lakes (Champions!) they had a less great run in Indiana. Even so, they can put up a lot of tubes. I think that they are in a position to seed well on Newton. With the right partners, they could go far (full disclosure -- this is my daughter's team and while I didn't really help the team too much I am far from a dispassionate observer).

Your support was recognized and appreciated! I have seen videos of 696 and because of GLR I immediate get this feeling of nostalgia, (Where have I seen this before?)...503!!!. A very successful hybrid design, a good scorer and consistent lifter. There are a few major difference but overall they give a really good feeling!

[MasterChief 573]

Well I've gotta ask, who does everyone predict will be in the Newton top 8 on Saturday?

My Guess, in no order

1038
573
696
148
33
501
1503
987

[Dan 1038]

Originally Posted by MasterChief 573

Well I've gotta ask, who does everyone predict will be in the Newton top 8 on Saturday?

My Guess, in no order

1038
573
696
148
33
501
1503
987

IMO, you have to include 247, DaBears, in the Newton eliminations discussion. They didn't win two regionals by being soft, they are a tough defensive 'bot with a slick double lift capability - they are going to be tough competitors...

[MasterChief 573]

Originally Posted by Dan 1038

IMO, you have to include 247, DaBears, in the Newton eliminations discussion. They didn't win two regionals by being soft, they are a tough defensive 'bot with a slick double lift capability - they are going to be tough competitors...

Oops my bad correction

1038
573
696
501
1503
33
148
247

How's that?

[Ken Loyd]

Joe,

Thank you for the kind words about Team #39. I hope we do not let you down!

Ken

[Chris Marra]

Originally Posted by MasterChief 573

Oops my bad correction

1038
573
696
501
1503
33
148
247

How's that?

Personally, I think you are underestimating some powerhouse teams with advantageous numbers (1124) who ought to seed much better, as well as some Vets (75 and 111), who will certainly be able to put up lots of ringers and counter the many ramp-bots.:
1038, 111, 696, 75, 1503, 501, 148, 1124

Unlike in 2006, where strong defensive teams who got lucky with the random match generation could easily win the game by shutting down other teams, I feel defense this year cannot win a team the game alone, match generation will make it or break it for teams. Above, 75, 148, and 111 are all excellent scorers in the "Veteran" match tier, and I expect them all to hold their own despite alliance pairs they get. With the exception of maybe 1503, I think rookies end up pushing the rest of those robots above into the "Middle" tier for matches, and as a result, they ought to get very advantageous match pairings along with defensive and ramp bots. Based on regional performances and how schedules have been thus far, I suspect strong scorers under defense to be the ones who can hold it on their own when on the field, and only defensive bots or bots who don't score well under defense who get very lucky will end up in the top 8, instead serving as first round picks, or second round steals.

[MasterChief 573]

Originally Posted by Chris Marra

Personally, I think you are underestimating some powerhouse teams with advantageous numbers (1124) who ought to seed much better, as well as some Vets (75 and 111), who will certainly be able to put up lots of ringers and counter the many ramp-bots.:
1038, 111, 696, 75, 1503, 501, 148, 1124

Unlike in 2006, where strong defensive teams who got lucky with the random match generation could easily win the game by shutting down other teams, I feel defense this year cannot win a team the game alone, match generation will make it or break it for teams. Above, 75, 148, and 111 are all excellent scorers in the "Veteran" match tier, and I expect them all to hold their own despite alliance pairs they get. With the exception of maybe 1503, I think rookies end up pushing the rest of those robots above into the "Middle" tier for matches, and as a result, they ought to get very advantageous match pairings along with defensive and ramp bots. Based on regional performances and how schedules have been thus far, I suspect strong scorers under defense to be the ones who can hold it on their own when on the field, and only defensive bots or bots who don't score well under defense who get very lucky will end up in the top 8, instead serving as first round picks, or second round steals.

I apalogize, but I can only go off of what I've seen and what I've heard. I don't know who will be in the top 8 but based on my knowledge these are the toughest and most successful teams in Newton. Also I think you are underestimating the power of great defense. I can give you an example of a robot thats claim to success lies solely in defense. I can't say that 1189 was the best robot at Boilermaker but I can say that they were the only robot to make it to the semifinals solely on defense. They were unable to score or lift but because of their phenominal d they made it all the way to the BMR semi-finalist and shut down alot of great scorers on their way. So based on that I have to say that defense can play a big part in this and can ultimately be a deciding factor.

[Todd Derbyshire]

It is absolutely no secret that when it comes to the elimination rounds there are more than eight solid teams that deserve to pick. In fact that number even extends further than those that pick after the top 8 align together. The point is this there are more than 24 quality teams in this division and there is alot of teams that I know are being left out of the discussion. However, when it comes down to the alliance selection teams will take the robot they know not the robot that may best suit them. When I was in FIRST as a student my team and I came to the conclusion to take one team cuse we had worked with them over another team that was highly prestigious on paper they were the same team. We thought the intangiables of working together would trump the intangiables of the veteran team's experience. Well not so much. Why am I sharing this story with you guys??? Well cuse I know how stressful the selection process can be for teams and people and I really think that with the system this year with veterans playing harder matches than other teams I think records are no longer an accurate reflection of a team's performance. Therefore the best information about a team is scouting. I would suggest to all teams go out there this week on thursday and scout and make a tier system and when you think two robots are the same figure out what the differences are or rank them. Try to make the process more objective and less emotional. Another suggestion is don't be afraid of taking that team from some place you have never heard of. You scouted them be confident in your scouting material your risk which is minimal might lead to a great reward. Ok I'm going to step down from my pedestal now enjoy Atlanta everyone and goodluck to all teams.

Hypothetical top 8
33
111,
696,
75,
88 (no one mentions them yet they lead the Boston regional in ringers and if my memory serves me right Boston was not a slouch of a regional) Veteran team though and will have tough pairings might be a steal in the elimination rounds.
501,
148,
1124
bonus team

190

[Tom Bottiglieri]

Originally Posted by Todd Derbyshire

I
Hypothetical top 8...

Well, if we are playing this game...

1) 148 - They've hit some tough spots, but I expect them to go undefeated.
2) 190 - A good scorer with two huge ramps puts them near the top of the pack
3) 987 - These guys can usually sneak under the radar, but make NO mistake, they know how to win. Their scoring ability and single ramp lands them the 3 seed,
4) 33 - I've heard good things. Bank on 33 to turn up the heat at Champs, as they always do. This team has shown what they can do with a strong arm in 2005.
5) 501 - These guys are ridiculous when it comes to the bottom row. They play the same "sneaky" strategy that brought 1626 two silvers this year, and HOT a gold in 2005. Expect them to seed high, or slip to the second round.
6) 111 - Stang has a huge target on their back. They will lose one or two, but make up for it in RP's.
7) 1124 - This is the up and coming team in the Northeast. Skilled drivers and programmers is what makes this team tick. They've tasted gold this year already,so expect them to hit the ground running in Atlanta.
8) 696/1503/247/1038 - I do not know enough about these teams to make an accurate judgement, but with whats been going around about them, expect at least one or more of them to seed.

But as you know, an alliance is only as good as its weakest member so expect these teams to"make the difference" as late first or second round picks:
236
1089
573
177
88
75
20
181

[hayakuneko]

after LA regional, I'd have to agree with the guy who says that defense (no matter how great) can win a match.

but after SD I realized that with "great" defense, we could even get beachbots down to 16pts in a qualifying match, so I suppose "great" defense with a "great" scorer can win.

** edit: what I meant to say was, the top 12 teams should have undefeated records; however, I do believe that this may be close to impossible for any team in our division.

[MasterChief 573]

Craziest division EVER! I can't believe all the good teams that didn't even make it to eliminations.

[Joe Ross]

Tips:
39 - Division Quarter Finalist
75 - Not Selected
247 - Division Quarter Finalist
573 - Division Quarter Finalist
696 - Not Selected
987 - Division Champion
1038 - Division Quarter Finalist
1503 - Division Quarter Finalist
1574 - Division Semifinalist

Locks:
33 - Division Quarter Finalist
111 - Division Semifinalist
148 - Division Semifinalist

Tips that made the elims: 7/9 = 78%
Locks that made the elims: 3/3 = 100%
Locks that were finalists or better 0/3 = 0%