Predictions: The Big Show -- Einstein

[Joe Johnson]

First things first.

FIRST did a pretty good job balancing the divisions this year (A/C/G/N).

• Median Team No: 880.5/938.5/917.5/899
• Team No < 1000: 46/44/45/45
• Team No > 1950: 10/10/11/11
• Regional Champions: 30/22/25/23
• Regional Finalists: 7/13/14/15
• Single Dippers (1X Regional Finalist or Champion): 35/31/37/35
• Double Dippers (2X Regional Finalist or Champion): 7/8/4/5

That is about as balanced as you could expect -- I suppose if we pushed things one way or another you'd pretty much push some other numbers around.

Before I get too far, notice that every division has over 30 teams that have won a regional or were regionals finalists. And a lot of great teams left the regionals early without even making it that far.

SO... ...don't even THINK that winning a regional is going to be enough to GUARANTEE being drafted. Teams in Atlanta are going to have to fight like dogs to get noticed. Being one of those 16 teams drafted in each division is a prize in itself. Don't take things for granted or you'll be watching the eliminations from the sidelines.

You can read my divisional predictions for how I think those are likely to come out but I read it this way: For each division I have Tips and Locks. Tips are just that: teams to watch, they have a good chance of having a long run after lunch on Saturday. Locks are my highest pick tier: I estimate that a lock has a better than 50% chance of making it to the Finals of their Division.

Let's face it, skill matters, but luck plays a big part of how things go down in the Dome. To win on Einstein, it is going to take two Locks plus a serviceable 3rd robot to fill in the gaps.

Given that I have to go with Curie. They have 6 Locks (118, 121, 126, 330, 469, & 1114 -- more than any other division) If Curie Champion has 2 of these teams on board, the other divisions will have a long afternoon.

Galileo has the next best shot with 4 Locks: 25, 56, 229, 503.

Archimedes and Newton have 3 Locks each (100/175/254 & 33/111/148).

You can quibble with my picks but that is the way I see things from this vantage.

BOTTOM LINE:
So who's it going to be?

You have got to be kidding! There are almost 350 teams and you want me to pick 3 that will be lucky enough get together and make a run for it. The odds are 1,000,000:1 against my getting this thing correct, but here goes.

PREDICTION:
Lighting will strike twice for #469, they get picked by Curie's #1 Seed, #1114 who also manages to steal #176 who is inexplicably still available in the 2nd round. Many tough matches but in the end, Simbotics, Las Guerrillas, & Aces High are just too much for the competition.

Good luck to all teams.

Joe J.

[Peter Matteson]

So Joe let me get this straight. Your throwing out a bold prediction that we will add not one but two teams to the teirs of double national champions!!! (Aces High (176) 1999, Las Guerillas (469) 2003) Like the picks but that curse has only fallen once before.

Pete

[Billfred]

Originally Posted by Peter Matteson

So Joe let me get this straight. Your throwing out a bold prediction that we will add not one but two teams to the teirs of double national champions!!! (Aces High (176) 1996, Las Guerillas (469) 2003) Like the picks but that curse has only fallen once before.

Pete

This is true, but when that curse fell, it fell hard.

I think Joe's nuts to be making an Einstein prediction--too many known unknowns, plus probably a few unknown unknowns--but what he predicts seems plausible, particularly the 469/1114 combo. (Whether they'll get 176 depends on The Way of the Serpentine.)

[Alex Cormier]

Originally Posted by Billfred

This is true, but when that curse fell, it fell hard.

I think Joe's nuts to be making an Einstein prediction--too many known unknowns, plus probably a few unknown unknowns--but what he predicts seems plausible, particularly the 469/1114 combo. (Whether they'll get 176 depends on The Way of the Serpentine.)

I say 1114 and 2056 will see eye to eye again and pick some power house D bot like 48 for example.

[Joe Ross]

Originally Posted by Peter Matteson

So Joe let me get this straight. Your throwing out a bold prediction that we will add not one but two teams to the teirs of double national champions!!! (Aces High (176) 1996, Las Guerillas (469) 2003) Like the picks but that curse has only fallen once before.

Pete

Not only that, but half the locks have won a championship before:

126: 1992
330: 2005
469: 2003
25: 2000
503: 2005
100: 1995
111: 2003
148: 1993

In addition, 254 and 175 have been so close they could taste it: 2 time finalist and 3 time division champion respectively

This looks like a great year for a repeat champion.

[Travis Hoffman]

Originally Posted by Peter Matteson

So Joe let me get this straight. Your throwing out a bold prediction that we will add not one but two teams to the teirs of double national champions!!! (Aces High (176) 1996, Las Guerillas (469) 2003) Like the picks but that curse has only fallen once before.

Pete

Aces High won in 1999 with Team 1 and Team 48.

[Peter Matteson]

Originally Posted by Travis Hoffman

Aces High won in 1999 with Team 1 and Team 48.

My mistake I'll fix that in the post.

[Jeremiah Johnson]

Originally Posted by Alex Cormier

I say 1114 and 2056 will see eye to eye again and pick some power house D bot like 48 for example.

Those two teams have to be in the same division first... and that's not going to happen. (1114 in Curie, 2056 in Galileo)

[Alex Cormier]

Originally Posted by Budda648

Those two teams have to be in the same division first... and that's not going to happen. (1114 in Curie, 2056 in Galileo)

hahaha, correct. im slow today. Ok. I see 1114 teaming with 330 and needing a solid D bot like 48.

[Travis Hoffman]

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson

SO... ...don't even THINK that winning a regional is going to be enough to GUARANTEE being drafted. Teams in Atlanta are going to have to fight like dogs to get noticed. Being one of those 16 teams drafted in each division is a prize in itself. Don't take things for granted or you'll be watching the eliminations from the sidelines.

Sapient advice, indeed. There is also the unknown factor the "Algorithm of Death" will play on the Top 8 seedings. It's going to be a fight to even make it INTO the elimination rounds, let alone advance through them.

[Peter Matteson]

Originally Posted by Joe Ross

In addition, 254 and 175 have been so close they could taste it: 2 time finalist and 3 time division champion respectively

This looks like a great year for a repeat champion.

Don't even bring that up its a rough spot for some of us to get that close so many times.

Originally Posted by Travis Hoffman

Sapient advice, indeed. There is also the unknown factor the "Algorithm of Death" will play on the Top 8 seedings. It's going to be a fight to even make it INTO the elimination rounds, let alone advance through them.

More reason to belive 1114 will seed high because of having the right number.

[MasterChief 573]

I'm not gonna try to predict alliances but I will try and predict the division that will win. As powerful as a 1114 & 330 alliance would be I don't see them winning it all. Even if that happened (which in itself is still questionable) I think that the third alliance partner wouldn't be good enough to give the team a good balance. Now I think its a toss up between Galileo & Newton, both divisions have unbelievable depth and have a good chance at being in the finals. With that said which ever of those division comes up with the more powerful and cohesive alliance will be my pick to win at Einstein.

[Alex Cormier]

Originally Posted by MasterChief 573

I'm not gonna try to predict alliances but I will try and predict the division that will win. As powerful as a 1114 & 330 alliance would be I don't see them winning it all. Even if that happened (which in itself is still questionable) I think that the third alliance partner wouldn't be good enough to give the team a good balance. Now I think its a toss up between Galileo & Newton, both divisions have unbelievable depth and have a good chance at being in the finals. With that said which ever of those division comes up with the more powerful and cohesive alliance will be my pick to win at Einstein.

At champs, 70ish teams a division. There will be about 3-6 Diffrence Makers, 15-20 Level 2 robots, 15-25 level 1 robots and the rest would be level .5 or lower quality robots.

Diffrence Maker - Does everything well and plays extremely well with others.
Level 2- Does everything but better at one thing then others or does one thing very well, plays well with others.
Level 1- Does one thing some-what well, palys fairly well with others.
Level .5 - Tries to do one thing well and is a small headache for any alliance captain.

Let's look into GTR for an example.

DM- 1114
Level 2- 2056
Level 1- 176
Level .5- Don't want to affend anyone so i'll keep this alone.

As you see, that was the winning alliance of GTR which had about 10 less teams then what a division will have. It can easily be done to find a level 1 maybe level 2 team if they slipped through the cracks. I have seen it happen numerous times in the past 4 years that i have gone to the championships.

$.02 i wish i was worth more.

[Cory]

Originally Posted by Alex Cormier

At champs, 70ish teams a division. There will be about 3-6 Diffrence Makers, 10-20 Level 2 robots, 10-25 level 1 robots and the rest would be level .5 or lower quality robots.

Diffrence Maker - Does everything well and plays extremely well with others.
Level 2- Does everything but better at one thing then others or does one thing very well, plays well with others.
Level 1- Does one thing some-what well, palys fairly well with others.
Level .5 - Tries to do one thing well and is a small headache for any alliance captain.

Let's look into GTR for an example.

DM- 1114
Level 2- 2056
Level 1- 176
Level .5- Don't want to affend anyone so i'll keep this alone.

As you see, that was the winning alliance of GTR which had about 10 less teams then what a division will have. It can easily be done to find a level 1 maybe level 2 team if they slipped through the cracks. I have seen it happen numerous times in the past 4 years that i have gone to the championships.

$.02 i wish i was worth more.

Your point is clear, but when 2056 is an alliance captain, and they're standing on Einstein, I predict you will be eating your words

[Alex Cormier]

Originally Posted by Cory

Your point is clear, but when 2056 is an alliance captain, and they're standing on Einstein, I predict you will be eating your words

Well then i would be very proud and will not eat my words becuase they are level 2 due to the fact of being able to score tubes only, they do not have a ramp. I made the points clear enough that the DM is able to do everything well, and the next level down does everything alright OR does 1 thing very well.

But i do see them going very far.