Scoring Predictions Anyone?

[Swampdude]

Originally Posted by ALIBI

Hybrid will produce 16 to 24 points. Four lines and 1 trackball removed.

Teleoperated will produce on the average 40-60 points before penalties. The best hurlder on any alliance will have a tough time getting the trackball while being defended. That will leave another, slightly weaker hurdler free to get 2-3 hurdles for 16-24 points. A lap robot will find out that their speed will be better off used for defense. Along with the 2-3 hurdles, most teams will probably lap 3-4 times per robot for 18-24 points. A few teams will pick up 6-8 hearding points and a few teams will place a single trackball for another 12 points.

I see scores in the 56-84 point range per alliance before penalties. These scores are close enough that a net of two 10 point penalties will change many outcomes. Losing alliances will end up with 15-25 points (weak hurdler and 2-3 penalties) and winning alliances with have 50-60 points (1-2 penalties).

Robot assignments: Weakest will defend the strongest. That takes out two robots per alliance for anything except laping. The strength of any alliance will be on the ability of the middle robot to hurdle. It will be extremely important that all three robots on an alliance keep moving. If you lose one robot early, you will probably lose the match. Hurdlers will rule. Matches will seem slow until teams get used to watching their robots on something other than an open field.

I think that's a perfect assesment

[Spartan151]

Practice field? What practice field? We didn't have money to build one....

That aside, I would say that a winning alliance score would be around the 50-70 range, given that AT LEAST one robot is equipped with an autoloader (being able to hurdle and reload without requiring the aid of another robot to do so.) . Remember, since team alliances vary every match, you may (Though it may be highly unlikely) get paired with two other teams that require another robot to reload them, and you yourself have to do the same, giving you only three shots over the Overpass, total.

Also, I'd say a losing alliance score can be anywhere from 0-50, depending on how close the match is and how fast it progresses. However, if I had to narrow the scores down, I'd push it around to the 30-point range. It only takes one point to decide a match. But that's how I see the scores coming down to.

[Ali Ahmed]

In my opinion, I'd say that the winning alliance score, on average of all the regionals, would be ~50ish. But the losing alliance could vary from far off to nail-biting close.

But if we look at regionals, I'd say Week 1 winning will probably be ~20ish. Again losing will vary.

And Week 5 regionals will see winning scores around 60. Teams will get into the groove and be more comfortable with hurdling and handling the trackball. Again losing will vary.

All these scores will be before penalties, which there will be a lot of. So subtract around 5-10 points from the scores.

And I'll go out on a limb and predict the highest score of the season will be 112.

[hipsterjr]

Going back to the classic argument...I see launchers scoring 1-2 hurdles more per match than most arms.

Also, I think 1-2 bots will tip over every other match.

good aliences will score 50-70

[Tottanka]

Originally Posted by ali_rockon22

And I'll go out on a limb and predict the highest score of the season will be 112.

Does that include IRI?

i believe that IRI will have a 250+ points score, and that we will se more then 3 200+ scores prior to the championship.

[scirobotics]

WE WILL DESTROY ALL IN THE FLAMES!! THE GNOMES WILL TRYUMPH OVER ALL!!!!

anyway on a more serious note; i think that after a few practice rounds scores are just gonna skyrocket above the 70's, but we'll see.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by Tottanka

I predicted that week 1 regionals, at least in the qualifying matches will be decided by the way the alliance performs in auronomous mode. I can easily see an alliance of just 3 defensive robots, who can't even hurdle winning a game VS. an alliance with 3 hurdlers. 24 poins for not ever removing the ball[...]

Why wouldn't the hurdlers remove the two opposing balls and negate those 24 points? Especially given that this hypothetical alliance has 3 hurdlers, and at least one of which won't have a trackball at any given portion of the match, I don't see why they would invest their time without a trackball, to remove the opposing balls (especially towards the end of the match).

[Daniel_LaFleur]

Week 1 prediction:
Average score will be around 50.
Good hurdlers will average under 2 hurdles per match.
At least 1 robot will tip over every other match.
Penalties will determine 40% of the matches.
Automomous will determine most matches unless penalties are excessive.

[Brandon Holley]

Defense will be attempted by many teams who have not perfected their manipulators. This will fail miserably as these teams will experience a surplus of penalties.

At the scrimmage in suffield, almost every team who attempted some sort of a defensive strategy experienced a penalty while doing so. It is very hard to do much on the defensive side of the game. The scrimmage saw countless impeding and wrong way penalties. Many of those caused from defensive attempts. Someone have a different opinion?

Week 1 will belong to the good hurdlers who have gotten their devices working properly. 2 good hurdles and a team is looking at running 10 laps just to OFFSET that difference in hurdles.

[smurfgirl]

At the Suffield Shakedown, the scrimmage our team attended a few days before ship, we saw a lot of scores of around 50-80 later in the day and in the elimination matches. If this is before robots were completely built, I'm confident that week 1 scores will see this range.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by Brandon Holley

Defense will be attempted by many teams who have not perfected their manipulators. This will fail miserably as these teams will experience a surplus of penalties.

At the scrimmage in suffield, almost every team who attempted some sort of a defensive strategy experienced a penalty while doing so. It is very hard to do much on the defensive side of the game. The scrimmage saw countless impeding and wrong way penalties. Many of those caused from defensive attempts. Someone have a different opinion?

I agree for Week 1 events, but as the game evolves, defensive strategies that don't involve penalties when executed properly will emerge. In previous years, "conventional scoring" had obvious defensive methods, and the defensive teams dominated early regionals as the offensive team gained experience and methods to counter the defense. Unconventional methods were borderline impossible to stop during early regionals, but forms of defending them evolved over time as well.
Take for example the 2007 game. It was very difficult for offensive bots to place tubes early on, but as more scoring bots became effective and teams learned how to avoid defense, scoring increased. Ramps were next to impossible to stop early on, but by Championship several different methods had evolved (see 330 in SD and 177 on Einstein for two quick examples).
This year is just the same, but both hurdling and laps fall into the "unconventional" category given the rules in place this year. Methods exist to still play defense, but they involve much more sophistication, dedication, and patience than simply sitting in between the offensive robot and the goal or trying to push the offensive robot. It will be very difficult for the average "box-on-wheels" to play effective defense this year. Most defensive bots will have to incorporate aspects similar to scoring bots, if not be scoring bots themselves (who need a different role on their current alliance for whatever reason).

[Brandon Holley]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

I agree for Week 1 events, but as the game evolves, defensive strategies that don't involve penalties when executed properly will emerge. In previous years, "conventional scoring" had obvious defensive methods, and the defensive teams dominated early regionals as the offensive team gained experience and methods to counter the defense. Unconventional methods were borderline impossible to stop during early regionals, but forms of defending them evolved over time as well.
Take for example the 2007 game. It was very difficult for offensive bots to place tubes early on, but as more scoring bots became effective and teams learned how to avoid defense, scoring increased. Ramps were next to impossible to stop early on, but by Championship several different methods had evolved (see 330 in SD and 177 on Einstein for two quick examples).
This year is just the same, but both hurdling and laps fall into the "unconventional" category given the rules in place this year. Methods exist to still play defense, but they involve much more sophistication, dedication, and patience than simply sitting in between the offensive robot and the goal or trying to push the offensive robot. It will be very difficult for the average "box-on-wheels" to play effective defense this year. Most defensive bots will have to incorporate aspects similar to scoring bots, if not be scoring bots themselves (who need a different role on their current alliance for whatever reason).

While I agree with A LOT of what you are saying sean, I felt the same way before our team went to the scrimmage.

Even though it was a scrimmage, you can get a pretty solid feel for what the game is going to be like. Defense is very very difficult. Will there be effective defense? of course....but just like you said, its going to be hard for the average "box on wheels" to do much of anything defensively besides rack up penalties for their alliance.

[JesseK]

Week 1 Scoring Predictions:

- Avg of (3*4 + 8 + 8*50%) 24 pts from hybrid mode. 50% of the time your opponent will accidentally knock off your ball from their overpass and all robots will cross at least their own finish line

- Avg of 20 penalty points per alliance per match due to accidental contact

- Launcher bots will spend more time chasing down balls than running around with them in possession.

- No alliance will be successful at passing balls around the track while staying in zones (i.e. 1 launcher bot is "fed" the track balls while staying in the quadrant before the finish line)

- Balls will be placed on the overpass at the end only for would-be defenders to discover that they're "removing" it the wrong way, effectively hurdling for their opponents and messing up all of our predicted statistics about hurdling.

Avg. Score: 52 after penalties.

[Swampdude]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

Methods exist to still play defense, but they involve much more sophistication, dedication, and patience than simply sitting in between the offensive robot and the goal or trying to push the offensive robot. It will be very difficult for the average "box-on-wheels" to play effective defense this year. Most defensive bots will have to incorporate aspects similar to scoring bots, if not be scoring bots themselves (who need a different role on their current alliance for whatever reason).

Why is defense hard? in at least 75% of the field, opponents bots are fair game, and for the remaining 25% it only matters if they are about to hurdle. Which means you can hassle an opponent for at least 80-85% of the time. Just don't go backwards or hit them outside the bumper zone (unless its gripper gripper contact) and you're good. I think defense is always going to be big, you just need to know when to pull of. Also make sure you keep making laps. These traffic jams are a killer for everyone. There will be matches where you just can't do anything because bots will be laying everywhere, or broken, or clotheslined, stuck together etc. I've noticed in the scrim videos everyone clumps around the balls too. Getting a ball out of that mess will be near impossible sometimes. Sometimes you're going to have to play possum to get your opportunity at a ball and bring it to your homestretch. Not to mention fighting your own teamates for a ball. Those lap bots are going to be the quiet little winners we all forget about until their seeding in the top spots. I think the really strong grippers that can drive right up and on the ball will do well because they dont need space or time to do it.

Anyway, for my topic 2cents, random high scores because good hurdlers are left alone due to unable opponents. Then finals will get interesting. But I think more than 1/2 the matches will be without hurdles, and lots of racing.

[afi419]

I think it's gonna be 40 or 50 average