Predictions: A cynical view of reality

[Optimizer]

Originally Posted by GUI

I think you are overestimating the importance of placing the ball at the end. If you place it and drive under the overpass you only get 4 more points than if you hurdle and drive under.

Not if you're in the Opposition Lane!!

[Aren_Hill]

Originally Posted by Optimizer

Not if you're in the Opposition Lane!!

when your stuck in that position yes you are at a slight disadvantage to an arm bot, yet you still have options, such as knock off the opponents ball if it happens to be there, making up 12 points essentially. I know our bot and the robotnauts can do a well aimed diagonal shot to complete a hurdle

[GUI]

Originally Posted by Aren_Hill

when your stuck in that position yes you are at a slight disadvantage to an arm bot, yet you still have options, such as knock off the opponents ball if it happens to be there, making up 12 points essentially. I know our bot and the robotnauts can do a well aimed diagonal shot to complete a hurdle

With a well design ball knocker offer, it would be unnecessary to waste time and energy launching to knock off. It would be much more effective to try to land the ball on the overpass then knock down opponents' balls with the same mechanism used to knock them off at the beginning.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by GUI

I think you are overestimating the importance of placing the ball at the end. If you place it and drive under the overpass you only get 4 more points than if you hurdle and drive under.

That's true in some situations, but not all. Hurdles only count over your half of the overpass, placing counts on both halves. There are going to be scenarios where you have the time to hurdle on your half, drive halfway around the track, and place (where you wouldn't have time for another full lap to hurdle). That's a 12 point difference right there, rather than just 4.

edit: Optimizer just beat me.

[BHS_STopping]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

That's true in some situations, but not all. Hurdles only count over your half of the overpass, placing counts on both halves. There are going to be scenarios where you have the time to hurdle on your half, drive halfway around the track, and place (where you wouldn't have time for another full lap to hurdle). That's a 12 point difference right there, rather than just 4.

edit: Optimizer just beat me.

That's a pretty good point. I think it's open to interpretation, though, because a shooter robot could potentially get one more hurdle per match than a standard arm robot (that is, if it's fast enough), so the bonus may or may not play a significant role at the end of of a match if the shooter is quicker overall.

This could potentially be an important quality for a robot to have, as a last minute bonus on the opposing stretch of the track could mean the match for a certain alliance.

Ah, well, I guess practice day is going to be devoted to placing a ball on the overpass!

[Optimizer]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

That's true in some situations, but not all. Hurdles only count over your half of the overpass, placing counts on both halves. There are going to be scenarios where you have the time to hurdle on your half, drive halfway around the track, and place (where you wouldn't have time for another full lap to hurdle). That's a 12 point difference right there, rather than just 4.

edit: Optimizer just beat me.

... and GaryVoshol beat me!

[lukevanoort]

In my view, good shooters will dominate good arms. Good arms will dominate bad shooters. Bad arms will just lose. I also think that we will see more good arms than good shooters (teams have more experience with arms), so good arms will appear to be the winning design for many competitions. In other words, I agree with Craig's basic idea, but disagree in practice.

As for placing capability, I feel that it will win many qualification matches, especially early on, but not as many elimination matches. Kind of like dumpers in '06; a good dumper won lots of qualifiers, but they had to find a good shooter or two to ally with for elims or else they were toast. In contrast, I think at least one divisional final, and possibly the whole championship, will be decided by placing (like the balls in 2002). At that level, both alliances are capable of scoring ludicrous amounts of points - it'll be that small little boost that pushes one to beat the other.

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

edit: Optimizer just beat me.

*chuckle* Naturally, since he is optimized.

[Jeff K.]

Hurdling doesn't seem to be the hard part. From scrimmage videos so far, picking up seems to be the worst, just because of the traffic jams and balls everywhere. A robot that can quickly get a hold of the ball and into its possession will waste less time there, and be able to get to hurdling faster. For hurdling, the teams that I think will do well are the ones that get the ball just over the overpass. The ones that launch and shoot it way over will waste time having to chase after that ball or the other ball.

I agree that cycle time will be important. Hurdling fast, but pick up slowly doesn't have an advantage to a robot that can pick up quickly, but just hurdle at a medium rate.

No one still really doesn't know what a true winning strategy is because we don't have many repeated 3v3 matches to see what works best. Saying that one robot on an alliance will win is probably just your own preference for a winning design. Also who knows, it may be like last year where ramps became biggest part. It may turn out that no one can reliably pick up and hurdle balls with 5 other robots trying to get around the field.

[Mike Schreiber]

I think the chaos will be cause for much flipping, flimsy arms and overly precise arms won't help either, but as said above, we have no hard evidence except for scrimmage videos...this is all speculation. I'm not sure many people would have called that the ramps would decide the game last year. Who knows...

[waialua359]

I just read all of this and see a general pattern. Generalizing shooters, arms, and racer bots. We forget that each team will have diffferent degrees as to how effective they will be with their respective designs.
Driving and practice makes a big difference. How many times have I seen the Poofs win regional competitions simply because they were the best drivers out there, making very few mistakes, working with great efficiency. They maximized the capabilities of their robots consistently, regional to regional, year to year. That's what impresses me the most about them.

How teams setup controls of their robots are key too?
I had two sets of drivers practice with our robot and it was like night and day. One group had me thinking that our robot couldn't even hurdle. The other group allowed me to sleep that night, proving that our design worked.

Is it safe to say that every year, the best designed robots and best alliances dont always win, for one reason or another.
I still cant believe the Poofs havent won a world championship yet????

[TheOtherGuy]

Originally Posted by Optimizer

The thing about shooters is that they have to make sure they are in just the right spot, just like everybody else, right? They are usually faster, in the actual act, but they also have a harder time chasing after the ball afterward, and usually have a harder time grabbing. Mostly - as you imply - they generally can't place, and that can mean big points at the end.

Shooter's will have just as hard a time if not easier a time of tracking down the ball than arm-bots. The grabbing mechanism has almost nothing to do with the design. I've seen tons of good grabbers on shooters and arm-bots alike, and several mediocre ones.

[Optimizer]

Originally Posted by TheOtherGuy

Shooter's will have just as hard a time if not easier a time of tracking down the ball than arm-bots. The grabbing mechanism has almost nothing to do with the design. I've seen tons of good grabbers on shooters and arm-bots alike, and several mediocre ones.

Let's just say I'm glad my team won't be up against #1625! Yikes!!

But the main point is that Hybrid Period may be critical. It's potential importance is apparently new, and may catch many veteran teams off-guard.

[ALIBI]

Originally Posted by Optimizer

The thing about shooters is that they have to make sure they are in just the right spot, just like everybody else, right? They are usually faster, in the actual act, but they also have a harder time chasing after the ball afterward, and usually have a harder time grabbing. Mostly - as you imply - they generally can't place, and that can mean big points at the end.

But your best point is what everybody else has missed -the importance of Hybrid Period. The best teams may score 1/3 to 1/2 of their points in that period!!

I will have to disagree with your generalizations of a shooter. There will be shooters that can launch from at least half of their home zones using a variable launch angle. There will also be shooters that can launch over the center divider. Please explain why a shooter will have a more difficult time grabbing the trackball after a hurdle. In practice, after a shooter hurdles, the trackball typically ends up against or near the opposite wall where it is very easy to pick up. There will be shooters that can grab a trackball as fast as any armbot and at the same time have the trackball loaded for another hurdle. Granted, most shooters will not be able to place, however, there will be shooters that can remove the trackball very affectively. I do agree that Hybrid will eventually produce at least a third of an alliances points.

[Optimizer]

Originally Posted by ALIBI

I will have to disagree with your generalizations of a shooter. There will be shooters that can launch from at least half of their home zones using a variable launch angle. There will also be shooters that can launch over the center divider. Please explain why a shooter will have a more difficult time grabbing the trackball after a hurdle. In practice, after a shooter hurdles, the trackball typically ends up against or near the opposite wall where it is very easy to pick up. There will be shooters that can grab a trackball as fast as any armbot and at the same time have the trackball loaded for another hurdle. Granted, most shooters will not be able to place, however, there will be shooters that can remove the trackball very affectively. I do agree that Hybrid will eventually produce at least a third of an alliances points.

Didn't I throw enough "usually"s in there? OK, nobody really knows, do they?

Anyway, to answer your demand, I draw from your own assertions for an example. If you hurdle over the lane divider, then you would have to go half-way around the field to go collect it, wouldn't you? Don't expect it to still be waiting there for you, BTW.

[dtengineering]

Well, this thread is certainly getting lots of action, isn't it.

First of all, it would be nice if 1726 and 118 did well at the Championships this year, as they have been real leaders in being open with their designs. They could have very easily chosen to not post their designs and results until ship date, but I think what they posted inspired a lot of teams to improve their own designs and did so with sufficient time left in build to make a difference. The fact that those two very effective designs are referenced so often is proof, I believe, of the inspiration they have provided other teams.

Secondly, there are a LOT of teams who we haven't seen ANYTHING from. 1114 is as quiet as a mouse (Or a chicken, as the case may be), and there are many other perennial favourites who may have come up with something... unexpected.... not to mention the annual crop of rookies and lesser known teams who will have some unique designs. With 1,500 teams, surely there is one that has thought outside the box and is reading this thread thinking "lifters, launchers... lifters, launchers... HA!" and keeping their mouths shut until regional time.

For instance, what if a robot unfolded an 80" long "shield", lifted it 8'-10' in the air, and planted itself firmly behind the opponents overpass, rolling side to side so that any hurdling attempt that hit it just bounced backwards and never made it over the line? All of a sudden the launchers aren't looking so good, are they? Neither are the lifters, for that matter...

Finally, I do get the feeling that this year's game levels the playing field somewhat between the "superstar" teams and the "grinders". In past years there have been some amazing robots that could win matches all by themselves, with minimal help from their partners, as evidenced by perfect 8-0 (or near perfect 7-1) records in qualifying. I think that is going to be much harder to do this year as the nature of the game may reduce (but not eliminate) the capability gap between the top tier robots and those of us who chase them.

So I'm going to suggest that the whole premise of the thread is just a bit off-kilter. The championship is not going to be determined by any particular design (yes, it will be a good design, and a sturdy design, but that is hardly news) but rather by the team that chooses their partners most wisely and co-operates most effectively. And that is why I love FIRST... it really isn't about the robots, is it?

Jason