Predictions: A cynical view of reality

[AdamHeard]

I think there are some arm bots that will be very useful alliance partners.

I have seen several arm bots that can pick up the ball at full speed (one was 17 fps) without having to stop (won't divulge team numbers as these videos haven't been posted online yet, well 973 is one, but that's my team...). Now, they may not hurdle as fast, but they are definitely better at picking up the ball than any shooter bot I've seen videos of (1625 is pretty close though).

[gurellia53]

Originally Posted by CraigHickman

...Like? From what I've seen in videos and so on, a shooter bot can do the same thing as an arm. That is, get the ball over the overpass in a much more efficient manner, which will allow the alliance to keep moving, and to score higher.

THANKYOU

I've seen a lot of generalizations about launchers (and arm-bots) on CD, particularly this thread.

I agree that there will be launchers in the finals. I think there might be a few amazing arm bots, but for the most part, launchers will be the dominating design.

[Uberbots]

Originally Posted by CraigHickman

...Like? From what I've seen in videos and so on, a shooter bot can do the same thing as an arm. That is, get the ball over the overpass in a much more efficient manner, which will allow the alliance to keep moving, and to score higher.

Yeah, until it overshoots, hits the bottom of the overpass, backfires and breaks the launcher mechanism (as happened to one of the teams at suffield)

[StephLee]

Originally Posted by Uberbots

Yeah, until it overshoots, hits the bottom of the overpass, backfires and breaks the launcher mechanism (as happened to one of the teams at suffield)

We had that happen once in practice, but due to the way our shooter was built, it did far more damage to the trackball than to us...the bladder of the ball ended up in two pieces, while the robot was fine. Robust construction is obviously important in any game, especially one involving high speeds and potentially flying objects weighing 8 to 10 pounds.

[=Martin=Taylor=]

Originally Posted by CraigHickman

Well, normally I keep my opinions to myself, but I figure it would be fun to other's opinions on this.

Here's my prediction of the winning robot (winning being winning the most matches, and winning champs): We're going to see a low, small robot that can pick up the ball and throw it. It's going to be the simplest bot imaginable; a simple single or dual pneumatic (or other fast reloading mechanical) catapult, and a kitbot drive base. It's going to be FAST, both in robot max speed and driver to robot relations. It's going to have a very small, simple setup to knock down the ball, and the rest of the match will be spent hurdling the ball over the overpass, and running laps.

What we're NOT going to see: An enormous, beautifully engineered arm that can grab from any angle, pick the ball up, and get it over the pass. However wonderful these bots may be, they're just too shaky and too precise. We're not going to see an elevator, either. Any design that involves stopping, and lifting over will be weeded out before the finals on Einstein. We're going to see some of these huge arm-bots do very well, but in the end, it's going to be those low, fast throwers who will take champs.

Any thoughts on the winning bot design?

Yup. Thats it in a nut-shell. Although 118 certianly doesn't use a kit-bot frame

I might also add that the perfect design would use rollers/wheels to pick up the ball. Nothing beats rollers in terms of speed. Some of the before mentioned robots seem pretty fast at shooting... But lets see a video of them catching the ball again (with the exception of 1625)

Originally Posted by Hachiban VIII

Yup. Thats it in a nut-shell. Although 118 certianly doesn't use a kit-bot frame

I might also add that the perfect design would use rollers/wheels to pick up the ball. Nothing beats rollers in terms of speed.

Not to diss on 118, but I think their setup is too complex. This year is about speed, which means you're going to have some HARD collisions. Their turret seemed a bit wobbly in the videos they've posted, and I don't know if it can take a heavy hit.

Yeah, I agree with the rollers. However, some teams will have pneumatic or otherwise powered lifters, that can load very efficiently (faster than any arm I've seen out there).

Originally Posted by CraigHickman

Not to diss on 118, but I think their setup is too complex. This year is about speed, which means you're going to have some HARD collisions. Their turret seemed a bit wobbly in the videos they've posted, and I don't know if it can take a heavy hit.

Evidently that was their practice bot in the vid, and with 3 (maybe more) years of experience with turrets, I'm sure 118 knows how to make it secure.

Just saying this because I think that right now 118 has the best chance out of anyone to be nat'l champs.

[Lil' Lavery]

I have my reasons, that I'd rather not share publicly at this time, to say that, shooters will not dominate at all levels. Ultimately, at the championship level, it will require a well-oiled ALLIANCE (with shooters or arms, depending on the individual match-ups, alliance captains, and structures) to win Atlanta.
Ultimately each individual design aspect dictates certain aspects of play for each robot, and not to pick on the robots mentioned (which I do love their designs), they have some major flaws. 1629 cannot remove the ball from the overpass, which means that their alliance partners will have to do it for them, and in scenarios with only one other "hurdling" partner it may be entirely possible that that team has to do double the work, and invest double the time, removing balls. Additionally, compare this pick-up to that of a roller claw. There is a noticeable time difference, and namely, field element difference between the two (ie, niether 1625 nor 401 used the aid of the wall). This can be especially critical under real field conditions where teams will rarely get clean, unchallenged attempts to acquire the ball.
There are certain advantages to the position, height, geometry, and factors of hurdling with an arm/elevator that will become clear as the game evolves, especially in well thought-out machines. There are also disadvantages to the positions, heights, geometry, and factors of hurdling with a shooter.
That being said, I see many shooters being very competitive, but ultimately both designs will be very viable, and in the right alliances could win Atlanta very easily.

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

I have my reasons, that I'd rather not share publicly at this time, to say that, shooters will not dominate at all levels. Ultimately, at the championship level, it will require a well-oiled ALLIANCE (with shooters or arms, depending on the individual match-ups, alliance captains, and structures) to win Atlanta.

Yeah, I agree that it takes a whole alliance to win, but my point lies elsewhere. Even though it's an alliance that wins, there is usually one robot who has the MOST wins, and the MOST points (ie, 25 in Aim High). I have a feeling that bot will be a low, fast shooter, and not a larger arm based system.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by CraigHickman

Yeah, I agree that it takes a whole alliance to win, but my point lies elsewhere. Even though it's an alliance that wins, there is usually one robot who has the MOST wins, and the MOST points (ie, 25 in Aim High). I have a feeling that bot will be a low, fast shooter, and not a larger arm based system.

I get what you're saying, but I'm saying that ultimately we won't be able to call that yet. It's going to depend on each robots alliance composition over the course of the year, as I don't think any design will have the tools to dominate every single match in this game. 2008 is a much more alliance structured game than 2006 or 2007, and it will be very very difficult for individual robots to dominate once teams realize techniques they can use to stop them. They only way I see one team dominating every match is if 148/1519 and their super-lapping friends end up being correct and laps ultimately make the difference more than anything else (which is yet to be seen, and I definitely have my opinions on this matter). Otherwise as close as we'll get to seeing a robot dominate are the robots that can combine the strengths of each system while minimizing the weaknesses. So far there has been only a couple teams that have shown me that they have enough advantages to even have the possible potential to take over a match, and none have enough to guarantee it for me.

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

Additionally, compare this pick-up to that of a roller claw. There is a noticeable time difference, and namely, field element difference between the two (ie, niether 1625 nor 401 used the aid of the wall). This can be especially critical under real field conditions where teams will rarely get clean, unchallenged attempts to acquire the ball.

While many shooters do struggle with a quick pickup, look at 118 (sorry to keep using them). Add one lateral piston and you have an even quicker pickup than a roller or claw.

[StephLee]

Originally Posted by Lil' Lavery

1629 cannot remove the ball from the overpass...

I'm going to stay out of the rest of the discussion for now, but...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5d34yZrSH0

Now, the ball does not consistently stay on the overpass, but it consistently knocks another ball down. Provided that another ball has been removed, we ARE capable of removing one ourselves. If no ball is removed...well, then the training wheels come off.

[Lil' Lavery]

Originally Posted by StephLee

I'm going to stay out of the rest of the discussion for now, but...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5d34yZrSH0

Now, the ball does not consistently stay on the overpass, but it consistently knocks another ball down. Provided that another ball has been removed, we ARE capable of removing one ourselves. If no ball is removed...well, then the training wheels come off.

I'm sorry for the misinterpretation, but I meant at the beginning of the match. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKdTJSR-KuU

Originally Posted by Video Description

1629 Robot features: Trackball pickup, fast speed, super-low center of gravity, amazing hurdle, multiple auto-laps, rugged, place ball at end (if we're lucky) but no ball knock-er- off-er. (less)

[=Martin=Taylor=]

Originally Posted by CraigHickman

Not to diss on 118, but I think their setup is too complex. This year is about speed, which means you're going to have some HARD collisions. Their turret seemed a bit wobbly in the videos they've posted, and I don't know if it can take a heavy hit.

Yeah, I agree with the rollers. However, some teams will have pneumatic or otherwise powered lifters, that can load very efficiently (faster than any arm I've seen out there).

They've been building those turrets since 2004. They know what they're doing.

Originally Posted by Hachiban VIII

They've been building those turrets since 2004. They know what they're doing.

Yeah, forgot about that... They're probably going to get it tightened up, and then they're truly frightening.