Predictions Week 4: Playing in Traffic

[Looking Forward]

After scores improved a bit (back to week 1 standards) in week 3, at most events they'll fall back to their week 2 levels again this week. Many of the events this week feature shallow fields. Five of the nine events have less than 40 teams attending. While every previous week had at least one event break 60 teams, the most in week 4 is only 53 (West Michigan).
With fewer teams and less competitive events, expect our evolving defense to be in full force. Many big guns were crippled by defensive play last week-end, and with them being singled out even more this weekend expect defensive efforts to be critical in many matches. At the deeper events some alliances may start to pick their third partner not based on laps, but based on their ability to shut down other scorers. Lap-bots in the top eight will provide chaos, dilute hurdling machines on each alliance, and make it hard for any team to coast to a championship.

PREDICTIONS:


BUCKEYE:
Cleveland will be hosting 46 teams playing Overdrive this weekend. This will be one of the more competitive events this weekend, although it'll be hard pressed to compare to what we saw at some events in previous weeks. At least two or three alliances will be able to unify two strong hurdling machines and take a serious shot at gold though.
612 struggled with technical issues and penalties for most of VCU, but when they got their act together Saturday morning they became one of the best hurdling machines at the event. When they weren't hurdling they proved they could be a strong lapping machine as well. If they can avoid the penalty and technical problems from VCU they'll be a strong force in Ohio on the field in addition to Chairman's. VCU was the first time in their last five regionals they didn't win a medal, they don't want to repeat that.
A spot-on tip about another VCU machine:

1731 is venturing to a regional outside of Virginia for the first time in their three year history. Riveteer was denied gold at VCU despite being viewed by many, including this poster, as the best 'bot at the event. Fresta Valley is looking for their first ever regional win, and their '08 machine could be their best bot yet. 1731 should be a top competitor in Cleveland, but they have some issues with focused defense that may prevent them from carrying their alliance to the top alone. If they can acquire another high end hurdler, I think they'll grab their first gold.

GaCo met an early exit during the quarter-finals in Annapolis last weekend, but 1629 is looking to avoid repeating that fate in Buckeye. I don't see them being able to notch up a regional victory though.
Another from a source:

250 came into the spot light at FLR. They had one of the best shooters that week. Their drive team could be seen getting better and better throughout the regional. This team will be a very serious competitor and should bump there average hurdles up to about 3 or 4 this competition moving even high toward the end of saturday.

1126 was another solid shooting machine in Rochester. They made the finals there, and look to collect their third Buckeye championship (they won this event their rookie and sophomore years).
Only two teams have already won two banners this year, and 1024 is one of them. They've had strong partners at both events though (1114 at MWR, and 111 at Purdue). They've also lost 10 matches at those two events, and were the sixth team selected (counting the three declines) in Chicago. They still have doubters to convince if they want to be considered on the same tier as 1114, 217, and company. We'll see if they can win an event without a partner who contains three "1"s and if they can continue their steady advance eastwards (first victory in Illinois, next in Inidana, now Ohio). The look to join an elite fraternity of teams that have won three regionals in the same year (only 47, 1114, and 1503 have done it). Even if it isn't a lock for them to win, their outstanding play and hybrid makes them a hot team to watch, and it'll be tough for any opponent to make them come up short. Fire away Kil-a-bytes!

SEATTLE:
With only 31 teams, 23 of which sport four-digit numbers, the Microsoft regional is far from the deepest we've seen. There won't be enough capable hurdling machines to go around, meaning if any alliance can unify two consistent 3-hurdle bots this regional will be all but over.

XBot, 488, is looking to build upon a nice showing at Portland. With their nice hybrid mode code and elevator, if they can have an easier time grabbing and holding onto balls, they could come back with some gold.

This tipster nailed it. 488 is the early favorite, but they aren't dominant enough to guarantee a spot in the final two alliances.
2046 had a strong outing during week 1 in Oregon as well, making it all the way to the finals. In the finals, they were outclassed strongly by the winning alliance though. In this shallow field, the Tahoma Robotics Club might be able to close the deal.
360 has a potent shooter, but have significant problems, namely with grabbing the ball with their fork loaded, in Oregon. They went only 1-7 in Qualifications, but were selected into the eliminations and made the SFs before losing to the eventual champs. They should fair better in Seattle, but it will be very difficult for them to come home with a medal.
1346 has been working diligently to upgrade their 'bot since Portland, including attempting to fix many of their key weaknesses. They'll be playing after lunch on Saturday, but how far they can advance will be governed by their partners.

OKLAHOMA CITY:
The hardest award to win in Oklahoma this weekend will be Rookie All-Star, with 27 of the 39 teams competing for their first year. Combine that with less than 10% of the field having numbers under 1000, and we have a recipe for defense and racers to rule the field. The few solid hurdling machines will be hard to acquire for the elimination alliances, and I find it difficult to believe that any alliance will be able to coast to the championship here.
Two of the winning teams from Kansas City are venturing here, 1806 and 476. Both should have solid outings in Oklahoma as well, but will take some luck to add another banner.
1098 has one of the coolest looking "racecars" around... it even looks like a car! The only won 2 matches in St. Louis though, but they did manage to secure a spot on the short-lived #7 alliance. I expect this racecar to have an edge over many in Oklahoma (most are kitbots), and should be one of the first non-hurdling machines selected.
1742, Shockwave, will likely be one of the better hurdling machines, but given the amount of defense likely, they'll have issues with consistency and likely will need aid if they want to add a regional victory to their resume.

ISRAEL:
This event used to be an afterthought, but now the GM/Technion Israel regional is blossoming. It has grown to 36 teams, and in 2007 an Israeli team was the #2 seed on Newton at the Championship. This event is legitimately more competitive now than some American regionals. Despite this, because the fact they are in Israel, it's hard to get info on most of the teams, so this report is sadly short.
1574 is probably the easiest call I'll make all year (knocks on wood). Mis-Car has won every Israel regional to date, typically as the captain. That team on Newton? 1574. Since 2006 they've had a stunning 44-9-1 record. They've shown a roller claw design for Overdrive, and should be a consistent hurdling machine. Watch out 254, your record of eight straight victories at the same regional may be in jeopardy soon.
Hamosad is not to be forgotten though. 1657 has won the event twice, and was actually better than 1574 in 2006 (although they paired up to win in Aim High). They represent the biggest threat to knock 1574 off the throne, although given their history as partners, it's possible they'll join forces again.

LOS ANGELES:
The largest of the three pacific coast regionals this weekend, LA should also be the most competitive. Fifty-two come out in an attempt to take home gold in Los Angeles. This event should have a decent amount of hurdling machines, but the ones who can hurdle consistently will have a huge advantage. Defensive efforts will still be present and will likely impact many matches. This event also has a few teams that will likely separate themselves from the rest, and if two can pair up, they may take the eliminations by storm.
1717 is one of these teams that may be able to excel beyond the rest. D'Penguineers were the 2nd pick, and champions, in San Diego, winning some of the best finals matches in recent FIRST history. While they might not be the flashiest bot, they are consistent. We have yet to see if they can carry an alliance through the eliminations on their own though, as 968 was a major scoring machine (and 294s defensive contributions were nothing to scoff at) in San Diego. 1717 has a legitimate chance of joining the elite teams who have won two regionals, expect them to be a member of the top 2 alliance once again, and to be playing late into Saturday.
1726 and 842 both had decent events in Arizona, both making it to the Semi-finals before losing. They now bring their shooters to LA in hope of an even better finish. Neither are overly dominant though, and could face some serious trouble when against other great scoring machines.
2102 was right on 968's heels for the #2 spot in San Diego. They both had the same record and same Ranking Points, meaning the the high score tie-breaker actually came into play. Watch for them to try and penetrate the top 8 once again, but they'll more than likely need the aid of 330 or 1717 if they want to take home gold.

330, the Beachbots, have to be my clear favorite. While their showing at the LA qualification matches was far from their potential, they were selected by 987 into the #1 alliance, and lost to the extremley poweful #2 alliance in the finals. Look for Beachbots to punch a ticket to Atlanta with a regional victory here.

I couldn't agree more. 330 lost their rhythm at times during San Diego, particularly once they were introduced to 294, but they look to improve in LA. They have shown flashes of brilliance, and even their lesser matches are still better than most teams. It will take one heck on an alliance to knock 330 out.

DAVIS:
The other California event this weekend is much smaller, and likely, much less competitive. 38 teams will compete in California's capital, many of which will likely struggle at hurdling. Defense, laps, and herding will make a huge impact.
692 lost in the QFs to the eventual champion #1 alliance in Silicon Valley last week, but want to finish stronger in Sacramento. Their hurdling machine should be able to make enough noise for them to be a first round selection.
997 had a mediocre performance in Oregon, and a disappointing start to the '08 season after so much success last year. While I don't think they will make it deep, they should be back in the eliminations this weekend.
1323 was another team that wasn't picked (although they made it to the QFs as a replacement) at their last event. Madtown looks to return to full force in Sacramento as well, but will struggle to make it deep unless they land in a very favorable alliance.
The M-A-Bears were another member of the #8 SVR alliance that lost in the QFs. 766 should be competitive in the shallower field at Davis as well though. Look out for a solid competition from them and a likely first round selection.

WATERLOO:
Last year this event surprised just about everyone when it was one of the strongest offensive, highly competitive, most entertaining regionals to watch. This year the quality has decreased dramatically, so the chances of blistering offensive gameplay and awesome matches decreases with it. The field of 30 lacks 610, 1503, and 1592, who were all significant presences last year. There are still enough decent teams that Waterloo should have some good competition, but defense will be common and only a few alliances will be able to unify enough force to have a legitimate shot.
1114 is back in action week 4, after winning their bajillionth regional earlier this season in Chicago. While they are still often cited at the best hurdling machine in FIRST so far, their three losses prove that they are mortal and defense can hamper them. Picking them here is like picking Roger Federer against the field, they're just so good that it's really hard not to. 1114 will have a couple hick-ups along the way, but the chances of them capturing another gold (or two) this weekend are very very strong, and they are the easy favorite.
The next one from a tipster:

188 - after a couple of down years, 2005-2006, this team came back strong in 2007. look for the upward ascent to continue. how can you count out any team which had 4 WFA winners. (3 nominated by their own team, 1 nominated by his new team)

These "rookie sensations" made a ton of noise last year when they won two regionals and IRI. 2056 was paired with 1114 though at all three events they won, and struggled when they were the primary defensive target. But that's 2007, this is 2008. They should be back with a vengeance, and if they keep their design simple and effective (as they did last year), they should be a top contender. 1114 does have a strong history of picking (or being picked on occasion) by their NiagaraFIRST mentees, so its quite possible they could re-unite with the Simbots.
1565 is showing off an unique and innovative linkage based drive train that has made some noise. It will be interesting to see how it fairs in it's first competition, and how well the manipulators on top can work with it. I expect them in the eliminations, but I don't see them emerging as an elite team.

2166 - another one of 1114's rookie products. Overshadowed by 2056, this rookie team made the champion elims last year, only to be eliminated by the 1114 alliance in the quarters. If they went simple, they could be in the winners circle.

2166's massive gripper is certainly interesting, but they seem fairly simple and intuitive enough to do fairly well. It will take a solid drive team and a favorable alliance, but they could penetrate far into the elims as well.


LONE STAR:
Texas is displaying the efforts of 46 teams, including some grizzled vets, this weekend. Look out for some blow-outs in occasional matches, with a definite top tier forming within the event. We haven't seen many of the teams competing here yet, as many are attending just Lone Star, or this and the Bayou regional next week.
For the past few years, 118 has been CD's favorite to win the Championship at about week 3 of build season with their awesome videos of their bots. They've only captured one regional since 2005 though, and three in team history. That regional win was last year in Texas though, and the Robonauts are bringing their swerving, shooting, speedy machine, Ballacuda, to try and defend it. Their acquisition looks solid compared to many, which means good news for them, as it puts them in the driver's seat to try and win the event.
One from a source:

In the past few years we've seen great and improving performance from 1429 - a great team that is on the cusp of doing great things.

624, Kryptonite has one of the sweetest looking bots in FIRST this year, but looks aren't everything. Claw devices, especially ones like 624, have had mixed results at best. 624 should be a solid hurdler, but it will take a lot of help for them to make it past the Semis.
231 is one of the perennial favorites in Texas. Look out for High Voltage is put up some serious scores at the regional and have a strong performance into Saturday afternoon.


WEST MICHIGAN:
The deepest regional of the weekend, this has a chance for real offensive firepower. A number of teams here could travel to several different events this weekend and be instant favorites. 33, 70, 71, 85, 141, 234, 494, 910, and 2237 all square off for bragging rights. This event should, without a doubt, have the highest scores of the weekend.
There has only been one team to win this event twice, 33 the Killer Bees. They were a potent hurdling machine at Midwest, but they couldn't contend with all the other scoring beasts, at least no as the primary force behind their alliance in the eliminations. WMR is slightly more forgiving, but not by much, meaning 33 will need a strong partner to win.
Everyone has been writing me about these guys, and I'm buying in now too. 2337 is legit.

2337-I am sold on the Enginerds. They are an amazing rookie robot and hurdle the ball as good as anyone out there. They kick the ball with such force that it has bounced over the opposing alliance station. They are an amazing team and will be playing deep in to the competition.

Watch out for 2337 to take a crack at some of these traditional powers. They will beat at least one of them in the eliminations.
Some FIRSTers have questioned Beatty after some lack-luster matches and a QF exit at MWR, but I tell you, have faith. 71 is sporting another incredible machine, and as their drivers get used to it... look out. Team Hammond will be playing in the last match of the event, count on it.
494 and 70 left many questions after St. Louis. 525 even declined 494 when the Martians selected them. They got hung up on the rack, had trouble keeping trackballs, and 494 sometimes let their alliance partners take over the hurdling role for them. They are better than most this year though, and have solid hybrids. If they can further improve on their hybrids they should have a strong weekend, but I can't see them carrying an alliance in this field. At least one of them will lose in the quarter-finals though.

[Cory]

Minor nitpick-CA's capitol is Sacramento

Originally Posted by Cory

Minor nitpick-CA's capitol is Sacramento

Yeah, but to the rest of the US, they seem to have this idea that Davis and Sac-town are the same place...

Sort of like the perception from Europeans that if you're in LA for the weekend, you can drive up to have dinner in San Francisco for the night... We're bigger than people think we are.

[Looking Forward]

I apologize for that. The whole "UC Davis Sacramento" regional name lends to a bit of confusion.

[Qbranch]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

Even if it isn't a lock for them to win, their outstanding play and hybrid makes them a hot team to watch, and it'll be tough for any opponent to make them come up short. Fire away Kil-a-bytes!

*chuckle*

I'm amazed at how much mileage people are getting out of the whole fire thing... even if it is still adversely affecting the robot...

-q

[SSMike]

Good list, but I feel obliged to include another team that I feel deserves recognition for having an outstanding robot. Team 191 (X-Cats) had one of the best (in my opinion) and most effective designs for hurdling this year at FLR. Their drive team is superb, and extremely fluid. When you combine these qualities, its no wonder that they won the gold in FLR. I expect to see them go just as far at Buckeye

[waialua359]

612 indeed did impress on the last day at VCU, however, 1731 was clearly the best team that weekend. They almost by themselves carried the team to gold. We never saw any of them as they took the 1,4,5,8 road in the playoffs. In our two regionals, we met teams 612, 614, 615, 617, and 619 on the East Coast. Pretty neat. I got lost after a while who was who.
The team I would watch for at championships is definitely MORT team 11. They improved like I have seen no other. They singlehandedly took the 8th seeded team (actually 10th seed) and dominated during the playoffs. I saw them in NJ and this is not the same team I saw there. I swear they switched drivers.
I cant wait to see what you say next week for Hawaii. With a field of 37 robots, approximately 25 of them rookies and 6 regional winners after week 3, it will truly be the most interesting to watch and analyze. The mainland teams will find that even the team social will be the best of any regional and something they will never forget!!!

[T3_1565]

w000 we are on the list!!! only thing left to do is prove you wrong and become an elite team


See you all tomorrow!! and GOOD LUCK at the other regionals



Hopefully our name will be mentioned some more in the next few days

[=Martin=Taylor=]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

DAVIS:
The other California event this weekend is much smaller, and likely, much less competitive. 38 teams will compete in California's capital, many of which will likely struggle at hurdling. Defense, laps, and herding will make a huge impact.
692 lost in the QFs to the eventual champion #1 alliance in Silicon Valley last week, but want to finish stronger in Sacramento. Their hurdling machine should be able to make enough noise for them to be a first round selection.
997 had a mediocre performance in Oregon, and a disappointing start to the '08 season after so much success last year. While I don't think they will make it deep, they should be back in the eliminations this weekend.
1323 was another team that wasn't picked (although they made it to the QFs as a replacement) at their last event. Madtown looks to return to full force in Sacramento as well, but will struggle to make it deep unless they land in a very favorable alliance.
The M-A-Bears were another member of the #8 SVR alliance that lost in the QFs. 766 should be competitive in the shallower field at Davis as well though. Look out for a solid competition from them and a likely first round selection.

You're right about 692. They have a very good robot this year. According to our scouting it was one of the top hurdlers at SVR. And believe me... Their team will make plenty of noise.... If there is one thing the Fembots are good at it is making noise

Team 701 They should also be a major contender. They did pretty well in San Diego, and they've been finalists the last two years in Davis. Perhaps this year they'll get the gold.

Team 2122 Another cool robot you need to check out at Davis is 2122. Its one of the most outrageous designs I've seen all season. Imagine a flop-bot version of 233 with a pneumatic ram in the middle of the roller-claw, and that's 2122. It would have done amazingly well in Portland if the refs hadn't DQ'ed it a bunch of times (they'd never seen a flop-bot before).

Team 2035 - Finalists in Davis last year. Their robot has an excellent autonomous and a nice claw/pneumatic-ram combo. It came very close to beating us in the semis.

Team 1351 One of my favorite robots of this season. Looks like a medieval wooden catapult (and works like one too!)

Some of us from 100 will be coming up on Saturday. Come say hi!

[Jimmy Cao]

I love your predictions! They were spot-on last week, and I wont be surprised if it's the same again.

Just a minor point, every instance of 2237 (except the quote) should be 2337 (i think).

Thanks for the entertainment and fun!

[Donut]

I'll warn everyone at LA now, don't take 1726 or 842 lightly based on their Arizona performance. They both had trouble with shooters not firing which ranked them in the middle of the pack, but if they've fixed their hurdling problems (and no doubt they've been working on them) they'll be adding a good 40+ points to any alliance.

Thanks for these great analysis, it certainly helps instruct those of us who miss what happens on the other side of the country which teams to watch for!

[Madison]

We've got some things in the pipeline to make holding on to the balls even more reliable. We're excited to see how things pan out tomorrow. We've also worked on our hybrid coding, so it ought to perform even better for us this weekend than it did in Portland.

Don't sell 2046 short. Those guys are awesome and will only get better.

[Doug G]

Originally Posted by Hachiban VIII

You're right about 692. They have a very good robot this year. According to our scouting it was one of the top hurdlers at SVR. And believe me... Their team will make plenty of noise.... If there is one thing the Fembots are good at it is making noise

Team 701 They should also be a major contender. They did pretty well in San Diego, and they've been finalists the last two years in Davis. Perhaps this year they'll get the gold.

Thanks for the props. We've been close so many years. Also let's not forget 1388 - Arroyo Grande. At San Diego they hurdled most matches and one that left field by 20 feet. How can you go wrong with a bot that literally "boots" the ball over the overpass?

[Woody1458]

We had a Govener Davis, but Sacramento is our capitol

[Jonathan Norris]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

WATERLOO:
Last year this event surprised just about everyone when it was one of the strongest offensive, highly competitive, most entertaining regionals to watch. This year the quality has decreased dramatically, so the chances of blistering offensive gameplay and awesome matches decreases with it. The field of 30 lacks 610, 1503, and 1592, who were all significant presences last year. There are still enough decent teams that Waterloo should have some good competition, but defense will be common and only a few alliances will be able to unify enough force to have a legitimate shot.
1114 is back in action week 4, after winning their bajillionth regional earlier this season in Chicago. While they are still often cited at the best hurdling machine in FIRST so far, their three losses prove that they are mortal and defense can hamper them. Picking them here is like picking Roger Federer against the field, they're just so good that it's really hard not to. 1114 will have a couple hick-ups along the way, but the chances of them capturing another gold (or two) this weekend are very very strong, and they are the easy favorite.
The next one from a tipster:

These "rookie sensations" made a ton of noise last year when they won two regionals and IRI. 2056 was paired with 1114 though at all three events they won, and struggled when they were the primary defensive target. But that's 2007, this is 2008. They should be back with a vengeance, and if they keep their design simple and effective (as they did last year), they should be a top contender. 1114 does have a strong history of picking (or being picked on occasion) by their NiagaraFIRST mentees, so its quite possible they could re-unite with the Simbots.
1565 is showing off an unique and innovative linkage based drive train that has made some noise. It will be interesting to see how it fairs in it's first competition, and how well the manipulators on top can work with it. I expect them in the eliminations, but I don't see them emerging as an elite team.

2166's massive gripper is certainly interesting, but they seem fairly simple and intuitive enough to do fairly well. It will take a solid drive team and a favorable alliance, but they could penetrate far into the elims as well.

Waterloo may not have 1503, or 610 this year. But how about the third best Canadian team last year??? yes 854... don't remember them? look them up on TBA and see how good they were last year. They were regional finalist in Both Waterloo and GTR, and the team that was with them both times... how about 1305? last year's CA award winner in Waterloo. Add to that 68, 772, 781, 1006, 1334 Waterloo will still be a very interesting regional I'm excited to be going.