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Unread 16-04-2008, 14:32
Looking Forward Looking Forward is offline
Honest Analysis
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Predictions Championship: Einstein

No, this isn't a prediction of what teams will be on Einstein, or the style of play. It's a prediction of how Verbrugge will make his entrance!



Well, that's impossible, so I'll attempt to brave the more than 1,000,000:1 odds that I can predict the alliances going to Einstein, and the eventual winners. More than likely these predictions will be totally wrong, so much so, that I guarantee you a team that virtually nobody sees coming will be on the winning alliance. Who saw 435 in 2004, 503 in 2005, 296 and 522 in 2006, or any of the members of the 2007 alliance as favorites going into any of those events?
The winning alliance will be a potent three-team alliance. Nobody gets a free-ride at Championship, especially on Einstein. 522's long-range sniping and skilled defense were a critical component in 2006. 190's ramps, 987s scoring, and 177s defense made a solid 1-2-3 punch last year that won them the championship. Whether the third partner actually hurdles or not, they will have to seriously impact the score in order to succeed. Every robot on Einstein will be capable of scoring at least 12 points in hybrid (although they may not do it every match due to the amount of robots moving around the field in hybrid). Every team on Einstein will be capable of recording at least 8 laps if they chose to purely run laps. Each alliance will have at least one robot capable of removing balls in hybrid. Each alliance will be capable of putting up at least 130 points and hurdling 8 times in an offensive match. At least one alliance will hurdle 10 times.


ARCHIMEDES:
987's veteran drive crew will lead them through the qualifications into a high seed. They know how to win matches they're supposed to, and very rarely give up upsets, but they'll end up as #2 or 3 due to RS. They'll select 1124 in the first round and 201 in the second. This alliance won't coast through the eliminations, with at least two of their rounds going to three matches, but their consistency, strategic flexibility, and experience will guide them to Einstein.
987/1124/201

CURIE:
Many of the top teams will beat up on each-other during the qualifications, meaning very few of true top teams will be captains. 67 will end up at the lower end of the top-8, and after declining an early selection, they'll chose 100 and steal 326 (who is inexplicably still on the board). This alliance will utilize all three hurdling machines and big hybrid points (especially from 326) in order to win Curie.
67/100/326

GALILEO:
Much like Newton in 2006 and Curie in 2007, an upper-tier (but not elite) team will seed 1st and disrupt the alliance selections by causing declines and separating power-houses, before grabbing a power-house seeded too low to reasonably say no (not always outside the Top 8). It could possibly be either of the Martians, 343, or 2062. 1114 will seed well, but lose one qualification (possibly two) in this loaded field, resulting in a probably 4-7 seeding. After declining the #1 selection, and watching the other juggernauts get absorbed by other alliances, they'll select 1717 (469 if they're gone) and 195. This speedy alliance relies on the consistency of 1114 and 1717, along with an occasional hurdle and lots of laps from 195, to push themselves through a very tough elimination series on Galileo, allowing 1114 to finally break through onto Einstein.
1114/1717/195

NEWTON:
233 maintains the high standard they set in Hawai'i, rolling through the qualifications undefeated and reaching the #1 seed. They have a very hard decision between 39 and 968, but ultimately side with 968 to be their #1 selection. They grab 60 with the last selection of the draft to round out their #1 alliance. Similar to the last time RAWC was on Newton, their partners draw most of the defensive fire and they put up huge numbers (although 233 is no slouch either, scoring frequently, and placing at the end). 60 contributes enough laps to push this alliance to Einstein.
233/968/60


EINSTEIN:
Assuming the same bracket as the last two years, Archimedes faces Curie and Galileo faces Newton in the Semi-finals.

987/1124/201 top 67/100/326 in 2 matches.
233/968/60 top 1114/1717/195 in 3 excellent, very close, matches.

233/968/60 top 987/1124/201 in 3 dramatic, close, matches.

Archimedes, Galileo, and Newton each top 120 at least once on Einstein. Galileo has the highest score of the tournament, but cannot advance past the Semis. Both of the finalist alliances is held under 100 at least once during the finals matches.

Have fun and good luck.
Don't like the predictions? Go out there and prove me wrong!
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