Predictions Week 4: One Giant Leap

[Beta Version]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

624 will likely be the most effective shooter at the event, with a polycord loaded, turreted shooter. If they play smart, they have a chance at doing very well, and should at least reach the semi-finals. If they have another scoring machine and use their super cells effectively, they could go even further, and potentially grab gold.

624 was First seed at Bayou. Lets see if they can pull for the gold

[David Brinza]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

ST. LOUIS:
The finals here the past two years have featured 217 and 148 against 1444 and 45, each alliance taking it once. But in 2009, only 1444 returns here from that group. The event does have some high profile replacements though, and should feature some very exciting alliances and matches. It doesn't quite have the depth of some other events, and will be rather top heavy. If two of the top tier bots team up, it will be difficult to stop them. It's likely that only two or three alliances will have legitimate chances at winning the regional (barring technical failures).

The Bomb Squad didn't perform up to their desires in Chicago, getting bounced in the quarter-finals and never really emerging as a high-scoring machine. 16 wasn't satisfied with their result, and modified their scoring mechanism for a hiring rate of fire (and shorter range). They should see an improved result in Missouri, and should at least reach the semi-finals.

1208 has a simple power dumper, but with a large enough capacity to make it very dangerous. They were selected first in Kansas City and were one of the most explosive scoring machines at the event (and managed to score 141 in a qualification match). They have a chance at upsetting some of the bigger names in the eliminations if they have another scoring machine paired with them to help remove defensive pressure.

2775 is another impressive looking rookie team, with a basket on an elevator allowing them to use their roller intake to score. Their hopper is smaller than some of the other scoring machines at the event, which will place even more influence on their driving ability. If they avoid any DeWalt problems (figures that Team DeWalt is using them), they should do well, but they will likely be a clear margin behind the top teams.

SWAT went undefeated in the quals at KC, and led the #1 alliance to the Championship. 1806 is looking to win two regionals for the second year in a row, but this will the be the tougher than any event they've won so far. Their spiral loaded shooter has the potential to score well, but it doesn't have the ability to take over matches on its own. They can provide reliable scoring to compliment an explosive scorer, but it's unlikely they'll be able to earn another medal.

Week one last year, they were on the #1 alliance at the Midwest regional, and were beaten by the #8 alliance in the quarter-finals. Week one this year, they were on the #1 alliance at the Midwest regional, and were beaten by the #8 alliance in the quarter-finals. Week four last year, they came back even better and won the West Michigan regional. Week four this year...
Beatty's back. And Beatty wants to win. After the stunning upset in the QFs in Chicago, team 71 is going to be even better than they were in Chicago (note: they still have the highest OPR of any team in FIRST), which is a frightening thought. If you want to win this event, you're going to have to go through Team Hammond. They'll be playing in the final match of the regional, and their performance will decide on who wins.

Well, Bomb Squad's improved shooter got them through quals without a loss. As #1 seed, they picked Team Hammond. The #1 alliance got a scare in the semis when they lost their first match to the alliance led by Perpetual Chaos. In the end, the Team 16, 71 and 1706 combination had too much firepower to be denied the win. Two strong offensive robots seems to be the ticket this year.

[lenny8]

868 and 1018 were both finalist at Buckeye as the #2 alliance, and lost to 1747 in the finals. All three teams should be factors again at Purdue. 868's small capacity will hurt them when playing against some of the bigger dumpers, but if they drive well they may be an attractive partner to any team that wants to funnel a majority balls to one scoring machine (like 254, 148, and others have done). 1747 is one of two teams at this event who didn't lose at their previous event, and their shooter is likely to be the shooter at the event. While one or two of these teams should be in the semi-finals, it would be difficult for any to knock off 111, 234, or 45.

[Sgraff_SRHS06]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

CHESAPEAKE:
Also known as DC/BAE/FLR/NJ part two, more than half the field competed at one of those four events in week 1 and 2. This regional has been dominated by New Jersey teams recently, with five of the past six winners coming for NJ (and none from Maryland). Like several other events this weekend, there is going to be a lot of parity towards the top, and most of the elimination teams will be pretty close in ability. A few teams look poised to try and distance themselves from the pack, and it is possible (under ideal conditions) for a powerhouse alliance to form, but very hard to guarantee.

After being picked, then "unpicked," in the BAE alliance selection fiasco, 467 wants redemption. The Duck Tape bandits can score quickly and efficiently, and it would take a major scouting breakdown for them to be left out of the eliminations again. It is unlikely they'll be able to take down any powerhouses though, and anything past the quarterfinals would be gravy.

Teams like 1511, 768, 1727, 339, 229, and 134 will make up much of "the pack" of scorers. Each should figure into the eliminations somehow, but none looks poised to lift an alliance on their shoulders and carry them into the finals. If the top tier teams are broken up, one of these teams could leave with gold.

2377 almost went undefeated in qualifications at DC, losing in the very last match of Saturday morning. They have skilled drivers, a tiny, yet incredibly accurate human player, and a knack for avoid being scored on. Yet, they'll have to dramatically increase their scoring speed if they want to be a major factor again in Annapolis.

The Robolions captained an alliance to the semi-finals in DC, and 2199 wants to get further this time. They have a great human player, and a robot that can score mid-sized payloads very quickly. If they can maintain a high level of play, they'll be one of the top three or four machines and could reach the finals.

Gompei slipped to the 4th selection in Beantown, but proved they were the real deal by winning. 190 has a crabbing, high-scoring, power dumping machine that should be a top tier team in Chesapeake. A semi-final appearance is all but guaranteed, and if they can get the kind of support scoring that 61 was able to provide, they could notch another banner to their resume.

40 couldn't top the Rhode Warriors and Buzz in the finals in New Hampshire, but their swerve-driven, dual-screw machine is a definite threat in Maryland. They're very hard to pin and score on, and has a large capacity, so they're very dangerous in any match. If they can drive smart and improve upon their weaknesses, they'll have the best odds at taking home gold.

Whoever predicted 1195 to win Chesapeake--here's your $100 billion! Who would have thought, based on their history, that New Age Chaos had a SHOT to win Chesapeake? But they remained one of the top teams throughout the entire weekend and held on.

Let's hope somebody gives 2199 and 40 spots in the Championship in the same division so they could hook up again! Those are two VERY dangerous together! Only 45 and 234, or 1114/148/217 last year.

[ShortBang]

Originally Posted by Sgraff_SRHS06

Let's hope somebody gives 2199 and 40 spots in the Championship in the same division so they could hook up again! Those are two VERY dangerous together! Only 45 and 234, or 1114/148/217 last year.

Sadly 2199 will not be attending Championships at this point in time, as we failed to qualify in our two regionals and did not pre-register.

edit: the team might discuss pursuing an open spot...

[coldfusion1279]

Originally Posted by ShortBang

Sadly 2199 will not be attending Championships at this point in time, as we failed to qualify in our two regionals and did not pre-register.

edit: the team might discuss pursuing an open spot...

Are there open spots?... I was unaware...

[ShortBang]

Originally Posted by coldfusion1279

Are there open spots?... I was unaware...

Theyre probably arent, but it will be looked into on the off chance. The finals were so close, and we feel we would still be competitive at Championships

[T3_1565]

First off.. Thanks to the people who mentioned us on the first page (there was more than I thought there would be to be honest lol.)

Secondly, I would like to apoligize for promising a linkage 2.0 then never actually making one. I have found that this jump from being a student leader to a mentor has rendered my input on things almost useless (weird right?) due to the fact I don't have the titles some of the other mentors have....

Unfortnatly, it seems my thoughts of how thing were going were proven right, and we did not get any fire from the sparks we made last year... I tired my best to push the issue and hopefully some people on the team have seen things in the same light now that the regional is over. (thank you to team 2056 and 2609 for showing them this, indirectly...)

Hopefully, from defeat we will aquire victory next year, and hopefully everyone on the team ends up on the same page.. and we will be back, and I will have more to type about on dlephi lol (things were rough during build, and it was something that I did not wish to share with the rest of the community lol)

We will be back next year with things that are much much better!!! (promise number 2)

[David Brinza]

Originally Posted by coldfusion1279

Are there open spots?... I was unaware...

There's a waiting list for Championship spots that aren't filled by remaining regional winners. Some winners at the events are already registered for the championship. Unfortunately, some qualifiers won't be able to attend.

As of this morning, there were 250 teams registered and about 90 spots remaining. Quite a few of today's winners already had a ticket to Atlanta. Probably a larger proportion of winners in Week 5 and 6 events will have already qualified.

Hopefully, you're on the waiting list...

[RoboMom]

Originally Posted by coldfusion1279

Are there open spots?... I was unaware...

There is a wait list for the CMP. No open spots.

[rcflyer620]

Originally Posted by Sgraff_SRHS06

Whoever predicted 1195 to win Chesapeake--here's your $100 billion! Who would have thought, based on their history, that New Age Chaos had a SHOT to win Chesapeake? But they remained one of the top teams throughout the entire weekend and held on.

Let's hope somebody gives 2199 and 40 spots in the Championship in the same division so they could hook up again! Those are two VERY dangerous together! Only 45 and 234, or 1114/148/217 last year.

Thanks for the compliment! The finals were certainly exciting! I agree, if teamed with a 'bot that could deliver empty cells and run a good pick it would be a pretty formidable alliance. Hopefully we'll be back next year with something just as good. My hat is off to the drive teams and PS's on both final alliances!

[DMetalKong]

Originally Posted by Sgraff_SRHS06

Whoever predicted 1195 to win Chesapeake--here's your $100 billion! Who would have thought, based on their history, that New Age Chaos had a SHOT to win Chesapeake? But they remained one of the top teams throughout the entire weekend and held on.

Let's hope somebody gives 2199 and 40 spots in the Championship in the same division so they could hook up again! Those are two VERY dangerous together! Only 45 and 234, or 1114/148/217 last year.

Here's a plug to the strat crowd.

At the end of qualifiers, 1195 had one of the highest OPR's and CCWM, and their alliance had the highest combined CCWM. Just shows you that the numbers are right some of the time.

[camtunkpa]

Looking forward called our fate at Philly pretty well. We were hoping to challenge his predictions again, but oh well. What a great event with a bunch of amazing teams!

[Billfred]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

BAYOU:
Bayou is small, with only 31 teams, and young (a median team number of 2080). Only a handful of teams will consistently be able to score more than 10 or 11 balls with their robot, and human players will be the most reliable scoring option for most alliances. The alliance that best utilizes the super cell may emerge victorious.

True in many cases.

After a pair of finals appearances in 2007, 364 met a swift exit in the Bayou quarters last year at the hands of team 16. Team Fusion should fair better in a field without as much top level talent this year. They have a screw-loaded dropper, which should be reliable enough to score better than most at this event. Expect them to at least reach the semi-finals.

Fusion got bumped in the quarters, though I did notice them not moving in part of their last match. As that one went 54-60 against them, I suspect we'd have faced them in the semis if they were running the whole time.

Team Combustion has a turreted shooter with front wheel steering that has a solid shot at winning a technical award at Bayou. But the high shooting angle, lower firing point, and lack of floor loading will hurt them on the playing field. 1912 will definitely earn an elimination spot, but they might not be playing past 2:00 PM on Saturday.

1912 didn't make the cut--they seemed to have some gremlins with their shooter (including scoring into their own trailer for some early parts of the match). I'd be interested to see what they could do with another event, but it looks like Bayou was it for them.

Despite Stephen Curry tearing apart the Gamecock's defense in the NIT tournament last night, this USC sponsored team hasn't lost heart. 2815 has one of the most impressive looking rookie machines out there this year, and looks to do very well in a shallow field at Bayou. If driven well, their power dumper will be very effective and one of the highest scoring machines at the event. They have a solid shot at earning a medal in their very first event.

Ah, if only. We had some rough luck in qualifying with no-shows (both times resulting in losses), but 499 picked us up from our #8 seed (hey, would YOU want to play 624 and 1477 in the first round?) and we had a decent run. Call it fuel for Palmetto.

624 will likely be the most effective shooter at the event, with a polycord loaded, turreted shooter. If they play smart, they have a chance at doing very well, and should at least reach the semi-finals. If they have another scoring machine and use their super cells effectively, they could go even further, and potentially grab gold.

They got another scoring machine in 1477 and a solid empty cell runner in 2173. While the former wasn't as potent as CRyptonite themselves in our estimation, they were still
plenty potent in Bayou with a good feed rate into their turreted shooter. Both 624 and 1477 are headed to Lone Star next, according to FIRST's site, while 2173 was done at Bayou. I hope all of them are shaking out their couch cushions for money to get to Atlanta.

[James Tonthat]

Originally Posted by Billfred

They got another scoring machine in 1477...

Uh-hum, we were alliance captain. Although 624, was definitely the lead scorer and had a great machine. 2173 was great at getting empty cells, definitely saving us a few rounds.