Sacrificing a State Championship for the Cause???

[Joe Johnson]

Originally Posted by JackG

Would anybody have considered (had they seeded first) not picking 1114 for Overdrive? Would anybody have considered picking somebody over 67 in Lunacy? I don't think so. Both of those teams were dominating in their respective years, and everybody was focusing on how to beat them. Eventually, both of those teams ran into a wicked alliance and then we got to see just how tough they were. The same thing is going to happen with 469 this year. They will be put to the test, and we'll see what they're made of.

If your goal is simply to see if 469 is mortal, then the MSC is not the best place to do so. The level of opposition you can bring against them at MSC is simply not as great as what they'll face in Atlanta. If you could pass over them and bring the toughest opposition they'll face all year, it might be worth not picking them. But since that's not going to happen, it's certainly not worth the sacrifice. If you think that 469 is the best team available, it would be foolish not to pick them.

Let me say this about that...

First, both 217 and 67 have 2 World Championships from Atlanta behind them. While most teams in Michigan would consider a chance to win the Michigan State Championship as the chance of a lifetime, I think that these two particular teams are more focused on what it will take to get their 3rd World Champion under their belt rather than winning another MSC. There is a 1 in 4 chance of being in the same division in Atlanta. If you are going to explore the weaknesses of 469 how many shots do you get? Not too many. Do you wait to test your plan for Einstein? I think you take your chances where and when they come. If I were a team ranked above 469 at the MSC, I think you might decide to try your Einstein strategy in Ypsilanti.

Second, I don't accept that the competition will be tougher on any stage in Atlanta save Einstein. I believe that the competition in Ypsilanti was head and shoulders above the divisions in Atlanta. I am not saying that there will be no great teams added to the mix in Atlanta but I AM saying that from top to bottom, the competition in Atlanta will not be as strong as what I just saw at MSC. It was a real showcase.

The why is a complex mix of the quality of the teachers, sponsors, mentors, the new district/state championship format, etc...

Joe J.

[Norman J]

Didn't 1918 get to test strategies against 469 just by watching how 67 and 217 played them?

[Adam Freeman]

Well, we were almost in the exact position proposed in this thread (* except we made a critical tactical error in match #108, resulting in a DQ and losing #1 seed).

Myself and our entire scouting team were trying to decide who to select between 217 and 469. About half of us were for 469, arguably the most dominate robot this season. The other half for 217, a x2 Champion and our best chance at defeating 469.

In the end, 469 was at the top of our list. The reason? They would have given us the best chance to win the event. Even as a x2 World Champion, we very much wanted to win the State Championship for a second straight year. We were not willing to sacrafice it to test an anti-469 strategy.

Unfortunately, we did not get that chance and we did get the opportunity to attempt to defeat them.

I will say this about 469, they are incredibly tough to beat. They took our hardest shots and came out on top. Our matches were extremely close and could have gone either way with a little swing of luck.

If you want to defeat 469, find video of the Finals from MSC. 217 showed a perfect strategy on how to defend them. But, even then the other robots will need to execute 100% to win.

[nikeairmancurry]

After reading some of these posts I think some answers can be answered...

469 and 67- I asked Dan of 469.. And he said if hot were to be the leader at the end of quailfing, they would have accepted.

67 and 217- I know the drive teams for both these teams very well, and as far as I know, both these teams hate to lose a match in general. Both teams want to win each match and each event they attend. That's what keeps them going, wanting to win all the time along with inspiring those to better themselfs to beat them. They love the competition, and Adam Freedmon, probably loved the idea of getting to play 469 now.

As for this topic in general, if I'm number 1 seed at MSC, I pick 469.. And played my heart out agaisnt everyone. This tournment proved that alot of things are possible. Atlanta will be nutz!!!

[JackG]

Originally Posted by Joe Johnson

Let me say this about that...

First, both 217 and 67 have 2 World Championships from Atlanta behind them. While most teams in Michigan would consider a chance to win the Michigan State Championship as the chance of a lifetime, I think that these two particular teams are more focused on what it will take to get their 3rd World Champion under their belt rather than winning another MSC. There is a 1 in 4 chance of being in the same division in Atlanta. If you are going to explore the weaknesses of 469 how many shots do you get? Not too many. Do you wait to test your plan for Einstein? I think you take your chances where and when they come. If I were a team ranked above 469 at the MSC, I think you might decide to try your Einstein strategy in Ypsilanti.

Second, I don't accept that the competition will be tougher on any stage in Atlanta save Einstein. I believe that the competition in Ypsilanti was head and shoulders above the divisions in Atlanta. I am not saying that there will be no great teams added to the mix in Atlanta but I AM saying that from top to bottom, the competition in Atlanta will not be as strong as what I just saw at MSC. It was a real showcase.

The why is a complex mix of the quality of the teachers, sponsors, mentors, the new district/state championship format, etc...

Joe J.

If you had the Thunderchickens or HOT in mind when you made this thread, I completely understand where you're coming from. Of course, if you're at the level of either of them, you know that eventually you'll probably have to get past Las Guerrillas to win big.

I was under the impression that you meant this idea could be applied to any team that ended up seeding at the top. My memory is fuzzy on this, but I believe that in round ten or eleven, HOT was at something like fourth and the Thunderchickens weren't even seeded in the top ten. It wasn't clear that either of those two teams would be in this situation. This screwy ranking system certainly added some entropy to the rankings. (And please don't flame me, 1918 was in no way undeserving, etc.)

Unless you're either 67 or 217, however, I still think my original point is valid. If you are one of those two, however, then I'm definitely with you on the concept of intentionally playing against 469 to prepare yourselves.

Perhaps I'm not as familiar with the Championships as you are, but my thinking when I made that point was that in Atlanta, both alliances' second picks will be better, allowing you to devote a better robot to shutting down 469's loop. I'll defer to your experience and accept that MSC will be tougher competition than the divisions. In light of that, again I'd agree that it's a good reason to at least consider not picking 469.

So basically, working under the same set of assumptions you started with, I'd completely agree with everything you said.




On a different note, it turned out that not having 469 was hardly "sacrificing" the State Championship. Of course it took some amazing play from some amazing teams, but I guess it means that not having the magical 469 fairy was not the kiss of death.

[hektormagee]

Originally Posted by JackG

If your goal is simply to see if 469 is mortal, then the MSC is not the best place to do so. The level of opposition you can bring against them at MSC is simply not as great as what they'll face in Atlanta. If you could pass over them and bring the toughest opposition they'll face all year, it might be worth not picking them. But since that's not going to happen, it's certainly not worth the sacrifice. If you think that 469 is the best team available, it would be foolish not to pick them.

I disagree. You have to remember that in Atlanta, the michigan team will be peppered into 4 different divisions without the chance of cross picking. While there is more total talent in atlanta, there is going to be nowhere near the condensed talent you will find at Michigan State Championships. I mean, where else would a bot like Foley Freeze be picked by the #4 alliance?? Or the Monsters and Bionic Barons being picked as a 3rd round pick by the #1and 2 alliances?? Absolutely nowhere. I believe that Dave was right and that that Michigan State Championship was the hardest competition in the history of FIRST.

[JABot67]

Originally Posted by hektormagee

I disagree. You have to remember that in Atlanta, the michigan team will be peppered into 4 different divisions without the chance of cross picking. While there is more total talent in atlanta, there is going to be nowhere near the condensed talent you will find at Michigan State Championships. I mean, where else would a bot like Foley Freeze be picked by the #4 alliance?? Or the Monsters and Bionic Barons being picked as a 3rd round pick by the #1and 2 alliances?? Absolutely nowhere. I believe that Dave was right and that that Michigan State Championship was the hardest competition in the history of FIRST.

Then again, look at Galileo last year. 971, the undefeated champions of Silicon Valley and an extremely effective scorer, were the LAST pick of alliance selection. Team 20 WASN'T PICKED. I agree that Michigan has a ton of powerhouse teams. I would venture to say it has more powerhouses than any other state; this is why Michigan usually sends a lot of teams to Einstein. (4 2009, 5 in 2005, etc.) But the top 24 teams at MSC are not as good as the top 24 in a moderately strong division in Atlanta, especially considering that the latter has 20 more teams.

[ComputerWhizIA]

Originally Posted by JABot67

Then again, look at Galileo last year. 971, the undefeated champions of Silicon Valley and an extremely effective scorer, were the LAST pick of alliance selection. Team 20 WASN'T PICKED. I agree that Michigan has a ton of powerhouse teams. I would venture to say it has more powerhouses than any other state; this is why Michigan usually sends a lot of teams to Einstein. (4 2009, 5 in 2005, etc.) But the top 24 teams at MSC are not as good as the top 24 in a moderately strong division in Atlanta, especially considering that the latter has 20 more teams.

I would like to disagree with your statement. After four years of scouting at Atlanta and two years at Michigan States, I would say that MSC is deeper than any division* in Atlanta. For example, where else would a 2-time district finalist (2619), a district champion (2337) and a powerful scorer that scared every alliance at Troy and Cass Tech (226) would combine to form the 8th alliance. Also, where else would robots that scored around 6-10 balls a match would be the 15th and 16th pick (2612 and 2834).

Also, 971, unfortunately, must have had a bad set of qualifications matches since they were 2-5 during qualifications, so they would not have been noticed by most scouting teams (props to the scouting teams of 111 and 67 for finding a diamond in the rough).

*The only time where I saw a division that rivals the depth of MSC was Galileo '08, where there were easily 10-15 powerhouse teams.

[JABot67]

Originally Posted by ComputerWhizIA

I would like to disagree with your statement. After four years of scouting at Atlanta and two years at Michigan States, I would say that MSC is deeper than any division* in Atlanta. For example, where else would a 2-time district finalist (2619), a district champion (2337) and a powerful scorer that scared every alliance at Troy and Cass Tech (226) would combine to form the 8th alliance. Also, where else would robots that scored around 6-10 balls a match would be the 15th and 16th pick (2612 and 2834).

Also, 971, unfortunately, must have had a bad set of qualifications matches since they were 2-5 during qualifications, so they would not have been noticed by most scouting teams (props to the scouting teams of 111 and 67 for finding a diamond in the rough).

*The only time where I saw a division that rivals the depth of MSC was Galileo '08, where there were easily 10-15 powerhouse teams.

I guess my post was mostly based on last year. For example, team 503 was 12th pick at MSC last year but 16th pick on Newton. The Bees moved down a couple of spots too, even with their (awesome) improved spitter. 247 was the second pick at MSC but the 10th pick on Curie. We saw some teams go up (469, 85) but mostly the trend was downward.

But maybe this year I am completely wrong. Michigan teams are that much better this year, with 33, 27, 2337, and many others rising up from off years to create powerful machines.

[BJC]

Originally Posted by JABot67

I guess my post was mostly based on last year. For example, team 503 was 12th pick at MSC last year but 16th pick on Newton. The Bees moved down a couple of spots too, even with their (awesome) improved spitter. 247 was the second pick at MSC but the 10th pick on Curie. We saw some teams go up (469, 85) but mostly the trend was downward.

But maybe this year I am completely wrong. Michigan teams are that much better this year, with 33, 27, 2337, and many others rising up from off years to create powerful machines.

Ya, last year we were "Inspired by Hot" to say the least, lol . But quite honestly the more I look and think about it, even the michigan districts were stacked. For example, even though 33 is good this year we haven't won a compitition because of the crazy level of compitition we have faced all season. At Kettering we faced 67 and 910, in Troy we faced 217 and 469, and in States we faced 67 and 217. I think this just goes to further show just how competitive/crazy Michigan really is.

[Akash Rastogi]

Originally Posted by BJC

Ya, last year we were "Inspired by Hot" to say the least, lol . But quite honestly the more I look and think about it, even the michigan districts were stacked. For example, even though 33 is good this year we haven't won a compitition because of the crazy level of compitition we have faced all season. At Kettering we faced 67 and 910, in Troy we faced 217 and 469, and in States we faced 67 and 217. I think this just goes to further show just how competitive/crazy Michigan really is.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: There are MANY, many teams that can step out of Michigan and totally destroy at other regionals. Teams considered average in Michigan can topple the giants of other regionals, and I would love to see more of them come out of Michigan to compete in coming years.

33 is by far one of my favorite teams in FRC btw, and I think if they stepped out of Michigan, they would see a few gold medals of their own, very easily.

Michigan is a scary thing to think about, they breed the world's best FRC teams out there. Other places that are in 2nd place (by a large margin) are IMO, Indiana, those crazy Canucks, and NJ

[Chris is me]

Originally Posted by JABot67

I guess my post was mostly based on last year. For example, team 503 was 12th pick at MSC last year but 16th pick on Newton. The Bees moved down a couple of spots too, even with their (awesome) improved spitter. 247 was the second pick at MSC but the 10th pick on Curie. We saw some teams go up (469, 85) but mostly the trend was downward.

503 was the last pick on Archimedes, but they should have been gone much earlier. The scouts there weren't really picking like I thought they would have.

Your other examples are good, but Galileo was pretty stacked last year at the top level.

[Mike Soukup]

Originally Posted by JABot67

Then again, look at Galileo last year. 971, the undefeated champions of Silicon Valley and an extremely effective scorer, were the LAST pick of alliance selection. Team 20 WASN'T PICKED.

Galileo 2009 was an anomaly in many ways. It was deepest division for top-tier robots and was quite deep in the 2nd tier as well. The reason 971 slipped to the last pick of the draft is because they had big problems on Thursday (showed up to 1 practice match at most) & Friday (died repeatedly, was under-performing all day) and didn't show a consistent ability to score until Saturday morning. That said, by the time the dust settled on Galileo it was obvious, to me at least, that they were the 5th or 6th best robot in the division.

I'm with the camp that believes the MI State Championship is more competitive than the divisions in Atlanta. The top tier is probably comparable, but the middle & bottom are much better in MI.

[waialua359]

Originally Posted by Mike Soukup

I'm with the camp that believes the MI State Championship is more competitive than the divisions in Atlanta. The top tier is probably comparable, but the middle & bottom are much better in MI.

This is true, however, all that matters is the top tier, as only the top 24 make it, and that's very small compared to how many per division.

I guess the question is what defines a more competitive regional?

[waialua359]

Originally Posted by JABot67

Then again, look at Galileo last year. 971, the undefeated champions of Silicon Valley and an extremely effective scorer, were the LAST pick of alliance selection. Team 20 WASN'T PICKED. I agree that Michigan has a ton of powerhouse teams. I would venture to say it has more powerhouses than any other state; this is why Michigan usually sends a lot of teams to Einstein. (4 2009, 5 in 2005, etc.) But the top 24 teams at MSC are not as good as the top 24 in a moderately strong division in Atlanta, especially considering that the latter has 20 more teams.

I agree with this post.
The MSC championships caliber is above the level of other regionals, and at the level of CMP but NOT above.
The difference as noted is that there are a lot more teams at CMP then MSC.
Many good teams wont make eliminations as it is close to a 3:4 chance of NOT making it. Its unfortunate, but that's how good (and a lot of) the top teams from everywhere, will make this true.
Teams like 25, 71, 111, 254, 330, 968, 987, 1114, 1717, 2056, etc. could have easily been selected for eliminations at MSC and very possible that more than half the list could have been in the top 8 during the seeding matches.