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Unread 07-15-2015, 09:05 PM
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2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule

Attached.

Subject to change based on team arrival at IRI.
Attached Files
File Type: xlsx IRIQualSchedule - 2015 V1.xlsx (19.5 KB, 3600 views)
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Unread 07-15-2015, 09:33 PM
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Re: 2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule

Seeing this, 1114 has a great chance of seeding first, they seem to be playing with the best teams at iri very often.
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Unread 07-15-2015, 09:51 PM
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Re: 2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule

Match 63 looks interesting...
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Unread 07-15-2015, 10:08 PM
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Re: 2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule

Wow we got a nice schedule. Excited to play with all these great teams.
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Unread 07-15-2015, 11:26 PM
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Re: 2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule

I may have missed this conversation, but will the matches be archived for people who will not be able to watch IRI in real time? I wanna watch but can't
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Unread 07-16-2015, 12:15 AM
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Re: 2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule

Match 25 looks to be incredibly good. 2056, 1730 and 1756 on one alliance, I guess that's iri.
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Unread 07-16-2015, 04:47 AM
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Re: 2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule

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Originally Posted by The other Gabe View Post
I may have missed this conversation, but will the matches be archived for people who will not be able to watch IRI in real time? I wanna watch but can't
Second the question. Does anyone know? It's a little difficult with a big time change to watch real-time.
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Unread 07-16-2015, 09:57 AM
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Re: 2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule

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Originally Posted by AlexD744 View Post
Second the question. Does anyone know? It's a little difficult with a big time change to watch real-time.
Yes, IRI matches are archived on youtube on the IndianaFIRST channel

EDIT: Q15 looks interesting and I am STOKED for Q3

Last edited by carpedav000 : 07-16-2015 at 10:54 AM.
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Unread 07-16-2015, 12:36 PM
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Re: 2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule

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Originally Posted by carpedav000 View Post
Yes, IRI matches are archived on youtube on the IndianaFIRST channel

EDIT: Q15 looks interesting and I am STOKED for Q3
thanks
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Unread 07-16-2015, 02:07 PM
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Re: 2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule

What time are elimination matches scheduled to start at? I looked for a schedule that included this but didn't find one.
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Unread 07-16-2015, 02:09 PM
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Re: 2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule

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What time are elimination matches scheduled to start at? I looked for a schedule that included this but didn't find one.
www.indianaroboticsinvitational.org/schedule/
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Unread 07-16-2015, 09:49 PM
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Re: 2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule

Using this match schedule and teams' most recent OPR's, I've run Monte Carlo simulations for IRI 2015.

I've adjusted the randomization model from +- 10 points to +- 36 points to adjust for IRI rule changes, but other than that the assumptions made are about the same.

This is just for fun. I don't expect these to even remotely line up with actual rankings given the craziness of IRI and its rule changes and the amount of time teams have had to improve.

Here are the results after 10,000 iterations:
Code:
Event: iri
Teams found: 67
Iterations: 10000
Number	AvgRank	Max	Min
195	3.4832	46.0	1.0
1023	4.3134	55.0	1.0
118	4.6559	48.0	1.0
2337	7.4331	60.0	1.0
4143	13.2243	64.0	1.0
2122	13.9563	62.0	1.0
107	14.3209	62.0	1.0
2468	14.7406	64.0	1.0
1730	14.9395	65.0	1.0
1114	15.7037	62.0	1.0
111	18.9118	65.0	1.0
33	19.0198	65.0	1.0
316	19.1749	65.0	1.0
1720	20.9217	67.0	1.0
548	21.341	66.0	1.0
829	21.4001	66.0	1.0
3641	21.5216	65.0	1.0
2056	21.8729	67.0	1.0
379	22.777	67.0	1.0
624	23.0898	67.0	1.0
3130	25.7827	67.0	1.0
4678	25.9262	67.0	1.0
5254	26.2098	66.0	1.0
2502	26.447	66.0	1.0
2590	27.7846	67.0	1.0
1806	29.9685	67.0	1.0
1756	30.9229	67.0	1.0
245	31.5831	67.0	1.0
469	33.8646	67.0	1.0
234	34.058	67.0	1.0
1619	34.1976	67.0	1.0
744	34.8391	67.0	1.0
330	35.124	67.0	1.0
3824	35.3259	67.0	1.0
503	35.5829	67.0	1.0
1325	35.8103	67.0	1.0
5188	35.9743	67.0	2.0
217	36.5755	67.0	1.0
1640	36.7092	67.0	2.0
67	36.7751	67.0	2.0
4039	37.208	67.0	2.0
384	38.0809	67.0	2.0
1625	39.9881	67.0	1.0
2338	40.6733	67.0	1.0
340	43.5065	67.0	3.0
2826	44.3424	67.0	1.0
27	44.6912	67.0	3.0
20	44.9441	67.0	2.0
68	45.8721	67.0	3.0
1741	46.3385	67.0	4.0
48	46.6938	67.0	3.0
16	47.4771	67.0	3.0
1310	47.8421	67.0	3.0
179	48.0229	67.0	2.0
1711	48.2938	67.0	4.0
5413	48.3966	67.0	4.0
2614	49.1928	67.0	2.0
1218	49.2469	67.0	4.0
1923	49.303	67.0	3.0
2867	50.0946	67.0	3.0
233	50.1697	67.0	4.0
1024	52.5114	67.0	7.0
225	56.6266	67.0	8.0
226	58.1545	67.0	9.0
1657	59.8648	67.0	12.0
3015	60.4362	67.0	8.0
2512	63.7653	67.0	16.0
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Unread 07-16-2015, 10:34 PM
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Re: 2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule

Well then... we have a lot to live up to...
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Unread 07-17-2015, 02:49 AM
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Re: 2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeremy Germita View Post
Using this match schedule and teams' most recent OPR's, I've run Monte Carlo simulations for IRI 2015.

I've adjusted the randomization model from +- 10 points to +- 36 points to adjust for IRI rule changes, but other than that the assumptions made are about the same.

This is just for fun. I don't expect these to even remotely line up with actual rankings given the craziness of IRI and its rule changes and the amount of time teams have had to improve.
Would it be possible to run again with the deviation being +- 10 points? I think setting your random term to +- 36 is making your predictions too random, because that's three stacks of randomness per alliance. Setting it to +- 10 points would be better, because that is like saying one team per alliance could miss a stack from their average, which seems about right for IRI level consistency. It would also allow for some comparison to how competitive it is to get the first seed in comparison to your division numbers, which did a decent job at predicting the top seeds (except the predicted second seeded team in Newton was the last pick of the second round).
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Unread 07-17-2015, 07:53 AM
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Re: 2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule

Quote:
Originally Posted by artK View Post
Would it be possible to run again with the deviation being +- 10 points? I think setting your random term to +- 36 is making your predictions too random, because that's three stacks of randomness per alliance. Setting it to +- 10 points would be better, because that is like saying one team per alliance could miss a stack from their average, which seems about right for IRI level consistency. It would also allow for some comparison to how competitive it is to get the first seed in comparison to your division numbers, which did a decent job at predicting the top seeds (except the predicted second seeded team in Newton was the last pick of the second round).
Rerun with my CMP configuration. +/- 10pts randomness per team.

Code:
Division: iri
Teams found: 67
Iterations: 100000
Number	AvgRank	Max	Min
118	1.4292	8.0	1.0
1023	2.26691	12.0	1.0
1730	3.77114	17.0	1.0
1114	3.82938	15.0	1.0
195	4.24932	18.0	1.0
107	8.09859	27.0	1.0
2337	9.35797	30.0	2.0
4143	10.1961	32.0	2.0
3130	10.85173	35.0	2.0
2122	10.89984	38.0	2.0
2826	11.06818	34.0	2.0
469	11.55042	36.0	2.0
5254	13.01782	41.0	3.0
1806	13.22972	38.0	3.0
2056	14.61626	41.0	3.0
548	15.49613	43.0	3.0
5413	18.4363	47.0	5.0
33	20.37055	48.0	5.0
1310	21.01449	51.0	4.0
2468	21.04116	52.0	5.0
316	23.20093	54.0	5.0
2590	23.68339	56.0	6.0
624	25.34947	54.0	6.0
234	25.99851	57.0	7.0
1720	26.49102	57.0	7.0
4039	27.1181	59.0	6.0
1640	27.46469	57.0	7.0
111	28.08338	57.0	6.0
233	28.5944	58.0	9.0
379	29.01309	58.0	8.0
4678	29.80839	60.0	8.0
2502	31.68775	60.0	9.0
3641	32.19362	62.0	9.0
1756	32.57385	61.0	10.0
1325	33.78067	61.0	9.0
829	36.3367	63.0	11.0
2338	38.08475	63.0	13.0
3824	39.16215	65.0	14.0
1741	40.16131	64.0	13.0
340	42.26218	65.0	15.0
27	43.12203	66.0	15.0
16	43.2314	65.0	15.0
1657	43.61683	65.0	15.0
67	44.19328	65.0	17.0
1218	44.37871	65.0	19.0
226	45.81232	66.0	19.0
330	46.15928	66.0	19.0
1024	46.72132	66.0	20.0
5188	47.55189	66.0	21.0
1619	48.18829	66.0	20.0
225	48.42906	66.0	21.0
245	48.6379	66.0	21.0
744	49.43817	66.0	22.0
68	51.28834	66.0	20.0
20	55.19088	67.0	28.0
2614	55.73767	67.0	29.0
384	56.30734	67.0	27.0
2867	57.08954	67.0	29.0
1711	58.30159	67.0	33.0
1625	58.9471	67.0	32.0
503	59.55302	67.0	35.0
48	60.00522	67.0	33.0
179	62.19169	67.0	41.0
1923	62.60326	67.0	43.0
217	63.09955	67.0	42.0
2512	65.46207	67.0	52.0
3015	66.90269	67.0	60.0
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