Predictions Week 1: We Have Lift-Off

[Looking Forward]

As we enter the final countdown until the beginning of the 2009 Regional season, it's time to start "Looking Forward."
With a brand new [ground] control system, week one could have even more problems from teams and the field than in previous years. Expect a lot of teams to struggle, and for the good teams to feast on them.
Some of FIRST's best are venturing out to play this weekend as well. Expect a large discrepancy between the top and bottom levels of competitors at almost every event.
Most of the qualification matches will be stale, but eliminations should heat up, and, especially in the better events, we'll certainly get some water cooler talk out of a few of them.
Human Players will have a huge role in most matches, and even when they aren't scoring themselves, their ball control will be key. Strategies will evolve over the weekend, but won't be close to what they will be after another cycle of the moon.

PREDICTIONS:

NEW JERSEY:
This regional will likely play out much the same way as it always has. With only one rookie team, hopefully there will be fewer teams that struggle, but undoubtedly there will still be a handful. There will be a lot of parity among the middle of the pack, with a large portion of the competition being at least competitive. However only a few will emerge as true contenders for gold, and if two pair up it will be next to impossible to stop them from taking it all.

The biggest name at the regional is obviously 25. Raider Robotix is looking to pick up their fourth consecutive NJ regional victory and will be on the short list of teams capable of winning. Their hallmark has been their drive system, and they've never been known for their manipulators or finesse, so the regolith and rover wheels could spell trouble for the team. If their shooter is accurate and they avoid jamming balls in their large hopper, they have potential, but those are two big "ifs." I'm hard pressed to find many teams at this regional that I'd rank ahead of them though.

Montclair Robotics has yet to reveal their design for 2009, but they have improved over each of the past few years. 555 has regional victories in each of the past two years (and another one in 2005), but has never won NJ. They should be highly competitive, but I don't expect them to be able to carry an alliance.

2753 is the lone rookie, but they won't perform like one. They have dominated FTC in the past, and look to extend their domination to FRC. They have a solid power dumper, but it'll take some help to earn gold.

The Northern Knights are the biggest threat from out of the area. 296 topped 25 (with 522, who's also in NJ) in the Championship finals in 2006, and look to best them again. Their bot has some similarities to the one they won with in 2006, but I don't see them escaping the semis here without a lot of help.

103 has been even more dominant at this regional than 25. They've won four consecutive NJ regionals (the last three of which with 25), always as a member of the top two alliances. Their bot is similar to many others, with a turreted shooter and helical loader. Rumor has it they haven't even been the best team on their practice field though. They're still on the short list of teams capable of winning the event though.

Word on the street is that 1923 has taken big steps forward, and could be a legitimate contender. They've certainly impressed some of the major teams at the regional, but how far they bring their cinderella story could be governed by their alliance partners.

BUCKEYE:
59 teams will debut in Ohio, but most of them a relative unknowns on the national scene. That's not to say there aren't a number of competitive teams that should be able to field solid machines. This competition should be wide open, with a number of machines with legitimate chances to bring home a banner.

888 has consistently and quietly built quality robots year in and year out. Glenelg hasn't won since their rookie year of 2002 though, and their only other awards are as finalists in 2006 and 2008 (both in Maryland). They struggled some at their scrimmage but should improve, but it's unlikely they'll be able to convert it into much more than a quarter or semi-final appearance.

48 is the biggest name at the event, but Delphi Elite has traditionally been known for their defensive abilities and high-traction drives. Their machine certainly has some scoring potential this year though, and should be able to deliver points as well as anyone at this regional.

The Thunderhawks haven't had the same levels of success in the last couple years as they used to, but they look to regain their form in 2009. 1038 will be a solid bot, but they're going to need strong partners in order to go deep into the eliminations.

The Boiler Invasion is trekking over from Indiana to compete in Ohio. 461 is sporting a helical shooter (like many others), and should have a shot of making noise in a wide open field of competitors. Their success will hing on programming, driving, and strategy, but even under ideal conditions it will take some luck to grab a medal.


KANSAS CITY:
With 61 teams, it is tied for the second largest regional of the opening weekend. But only 14 of those have numbers under 1500. A lot of young and unproven teams will look to make their name here. A small crowd will emerge as legitimate scoring machines among the masses here. Bad partners can mean easy targets for opposing alliances, so it'll be difficult for top ranked teams to win this event.

Team Driven has a mean looking machine, and 1730 is one of the better looking teams headed into this regional. They want to build on their quarter-final appearance here last year, but given the nature of this regional, alliance partners will be critical for their performance.

525 had a great season last year, and looks to do well in a shallow field here in KC. But match-ups and luck will be critical for the SWARTDogs, but their pneumatic launcher should be able to score points in the qualification rounds. The eliminations will be more difficult, and they might face an early exit if they don't have a strong partner.

If 935 doesn't encounter mechanical failures, they have a shot at emerging on top of this regional. Their large hopper and dumping method can garner them a lot of points fairly quickly. They'll certainly be one of the top teams.

In terms of ridiculous and cool designs, 1986 definitely deserves a mention for their catapult. The functionality and success on the field is a little more questionable. They'll be a center of attention, but a push past the quarters is less feasible.

OKLAHOMA CITY:
Even with 50 teams, this regional could potentially be shallower than the Michigan district event this week. Roughly 25% of the teams here will be competing for the first time ever, and only five teams pre-date the "3v3 era." This event will be similar to Kansas City, but with more teams with no autonomous and even more value placed on human players.

2165 won here last year, and their simple dumper bot has a chance to do well here again, especially against some of the easier targets.

Team KAOS won Lonestar last year, and has an excellent chance at gold in this shallow field. While nothing is a guarantee, and alliance selection will be crucial, 1429 looks to be the favorite.

1742 made the semi-finals here last season, and their shooter will certainly be a contender again. Shockwave should be an early pick or alliance captain.

MICHIGAN - TRAVERSE CITY:
The first of Michigan's pilot district program is Traverse City. 39 teams here makes it the smallest of all week 1 events (unsurprisingly), but only one of two district events not filled to 40 teams this season. On top of the issues every event will face the smaller field of competitors and lack of a practice day could mean many teams will struggle. Watch for a group of teams to separate from the pack and dominate most of the competition, as well as a group of teams to fall well below the pack and be dominated.

703 builds consistent, quality machines every year. Their style has always been physical and relied heavily on their high traction drives though, so they have some of the same questions facing teams like 48 and 25. Can team Phoenix's play style be reborn for a low friction surface?

After a couple of down years, Chief Delphi has returned in the past two seasons to highly competitive form. 47 hasn't won a regional since 2004 though, but the new district system could be the incentive they need. In this small field they should have a solid chance at making the finals.

BOB has struggled with mechanical failures and inconsistency the last couple seasons, but when 85 is on their game, they're tough to beat. If they stay healthy they could take home gold, but it's very possible for them to be outed early in the eliminations.

One from a tipster:

Team 1918 could sneak up to the top of the rankings, they have a solid looking dumper.

141 doesn't garner the same amount of attention as some of their Michigan counterparts, but the Wobots always have a chance to wow the crowd and the judges. They knocked off 111, 175, 79 and 2056 en route to the Newton finals last year, and will be a top contender in TC. And it doesn't hurt that their bot has replaced 303 (2004) for the honor of looking most like a fridge. And this one even dispenses ice!

NEW HAMPSHIRE:
The BAE Granite State Regional will play host to 47 teams, but like NJ, only one is a rookie (3074). The large amount of veterans should hopefully mean fewer teams falling behind and a more competitive event. But it might not mean higher scores, given New England's reputation for fierce defense. Even the offense will likely be dependent on physical play and pinning. Elimination alliance structure will likely be a little different than the other events with teams of this caliber, and the ability of the third partner to play defense, pin, and avoid being pinned will be even more critical to each and every alliance.

The Duct Tape Bandits haven't managed to escape the quarter-finals at any event in years, but 467 looks to be a strong competitor in 2009. They have a spiral loaded dumper and should be able to add valuable points to any alliance. While I don't see them as a main force, if they find a strong partner they should be able to break their quarter-final curse.

The Rocketeers won two regionals in 2008, and look to stay hot in New Hampshire. 20's quick scoring method and high volume hopper make them a major threat to any team in FIRST, but the time it takes them to reload will be a handicap and easier to counter (especially at a regional that promises this much contact).

175 has won a regional every year since 2005 (when they were finalist twice and made Einstein for the third consecutive year). Buzz will once again be a force to be reckoned with, although their hallmark drive system will perform differently with a trailer on the back of the robot. Count on at least a semi-final appearance, with the potential for gold.

The Rhode Warriors have won three golds and a silver in the past four years, and look poised to compete again. 121 has a nice looking power dumper that should buy them a ticket to play on Saturday afternoon. How far they advance is going to depend on their match-ups.

After a very strong showing in Suffield, Trinity looks to bring their success to New Hampshire. Prior to last year, 40 had never won a regional event, but they won a pair of them, including this event, in 2008. Checkmate's dual spiral loaders and turreted shooter will be able to put up big points on almost any opponent. It'll be a disappointment if they don't bring home a medal.

WASHINGTON DC:
The largest week one event, 65 teams come to play in the nation's capitol. An interesting blend of highly competitive regional teams (VA, MD, DC, PA, DE, NJ, WV, NC) and visitors (IN, TX, CA, AL) will make this event competitive and the premier Mid-Atlantic regional for 2009. VCU used to be the only week 1 webcast, and people remember the struggles many of those teams had. Many of those are competing in DC, and combined with a large crop of rookies, there will be a number of teams that will be easy targets for the elite. An upper tier of scorers will dominate, but the chances for a clear #1 are slim.

Dumpers are chic in DC, with a bunch of teams sporting various forms. 234, 2068, 2377, 768, 1712, and 357 should be among the better of them, but it'll be hard to guarantee if any will excel. Minor advantages, driving, and human player skill will separate them from one another. Of this group, Cyber Blue has the best track record and the best chance at taking home hardware.

Propeller propulsion will also be popular at this regional with teams like 45, 1279, and 1731 using it. All three should be contenders, but all three would likely do well regardless of what type of propulsion they use. Fresta Valley has never been to an official event where they haven't been on the #1 alliance, but they've never made it to the winner's circle either. And given their struggles at the DC scrimmage, it'll be tough this year. But their prop makes them blisteringly fast in open space, and if they can fix their shooter woes they could potentially end their curse with the right partners.

118 is always a favorite after their build season videos, and this year is much of the same. The Robonauts failed to convert their hype into gold last year though, but they don't have 1477 to beat them in the finals in DC. Their turreted dumper will be able to score with the best and their speed and maneuverability will make them hard to score on in the open field, but they'll be one of the first to put human loading to the test. Good protection from their partners will be their biggest ally, but if they don't get it they could easily end up missing gold again.

MOE pulled off a number of upsets last year, including toppling 103 and 272 in the Philly finals and 71 in the Archimedes semis, but they'll be one of the biggest targets in DC. Another turreted dumper, 365 will be able to work miracles all over field and rack up huge points. Provided they avoid mechanical trouble and can escape defensive pressure as well as they have in the past, they should be playing in the last match of the regional.

MIDWEST:
There's no doubt that Chicago is the most competitive regional of week one, the only question is, is it better than last year? The addition of twelve more teams (54 teams instead of 42) including 217 and 2171 should help make up for the losses of teams to the Michigan district system (33, 503, 1504) and the Buckeye rescheduling (48, 1038). This regional, rich with tradition and story-lines, should set the stage for many other of the key events through the season and involve more G14 penalties than any other event this weekend. When you combine this many elite teams in an event where more than half the field has a number greater than 2000, there are going to be lots of blow-outs. Those young local teams are going to have to step up, especially in the elimination rounds. The third alliance partner is going to play a critical role here, both in terms of defense and being able to avoid becoming an easy target for some of the dominating machines. The championship may well be decided by a team nobody has ever heard of instead of the giants of FIRST.

Hot of one of the most dominating seasons in FIRST history and their first Championship, pretty much the only thing that can slow down the Simbots would be a link to BALCO. 1114's robot looks like the mutant offspring of Wildstang 2006 and a vex field, and is poised to put up HUGE scores. Capable of being both the power forward and the point guard on their alliance, the Simbots flexibility will make them particularly dangerous in this field of dangerous teams. Regardless, in a field this stacked they'll need at least the kind of support they got last year if they want to repeat.
Side note: if everything breaks their way, by season's end 1114 could be tied with 71 and 254 for the most "blue banners" in FIRST history with 21.

A brilliant point from an informant:

1024: 3 regional wins and a division in 2008. Was this a flash in the pan, or the birth of a new powerhouse? Consider Team 245 in 2005, 2 regional wins, 1 finalist, 1 division win. What happened to them after that magical season...

Both 1024 and 245 had similar success before their break-out years (2 regional wins each), but 1024 has been somewhat more consistent. Nobody is suggesting that the Kil-a-Bytes are going to fade in obscurity, but question if they'll still be able to contend directly with juggernauts like 1114, 217, 71, and 111. They'll be a first round pick, but will need to partner with one of the greats if they intend to return to the moon... winners circle.

After a couple seasons of relative obscurity, the Bomb Squad was resurgent in 2008. 16 was on the only alliance to best 1114 in a regional elimination match (along with 1625 and 648), and did so here in Chicago. They then won Bayou and met 1114 again in the Einstein finals. Can Baxter return to form in 2009, or will the ice storm that ravaged their season knock them back down to their 2005-2007 level of play? 16 should be a force to be reckoned with (and could possibly match up very well as partners with juggernauts like 71 and 111), but it's yet to be seen if they can contend with the elite once again.

The Thunderchickens have three Einstein appearances and two Championships in the past four years. But 217 has always struggled in the qualification rounds (217 hasn't been an alliance captain since 2005), which may cost them if they aren't selected by a strong captain who is well suited to their play style. The T-Chicks know well that durability in the elimination rounds is what wins championships (see GTR 2006, STL 2007, and GLR 2008), so if they remain fully functional these chickens should fly. But if a bad alliance pairing or technical demons come knocking, 217 could be grounded early.

A number of quality, but not yet elite, younger teams look to carve their name into FIRST history in Chicago. 1625, 1732, and 2171 will all be competitive, and at least one of them will be on an alliance that knocks off a big dog in the elims, but it looks difficult for any to carry home gold from Chicago.

Wildstang's winning tradition is a deep and strong as anyone's, and they'll be a game changer once again. 111 will look to defend their home turf, and will have a good shot at doing so. This bot has drawn some comparisons to their 2003 machine that won it all, but nothing is guaranteed. Raul will structure his alliance to give them the best situation they can to win, but their qualification seeding might be the governing factor in how far they can take their elimination run.

The Class of 2008 did something that has never been done before in the history of team 71. They went through all four years of high school with Team Hammond and didn't win a FIRST Championship. I don't think the seniors of 2009 want the same fate. The Beatty Beast is a swerve-driving, power dumping, polycarbonate hoppered scoring machine, and will be able to blow away most in the competition. 71 is hungry, and I don't know if even 1114 can stand in their way. They'll at least be invited to join one of the top two alliances, but their fate may too be in the hands of the scheduling gods.

I'll be damned if either 111 or 71 isn't playing in the finals in Chicago.

[R.C.]

Great Post.

[Badflea]

wow...
This is awesome.

[Richard Wallace]

Originally Posted by Looking Forward

... I'll be damned if either 111 or 71 isn't playing in the finals in Chicago.

I don't expect many will bet against LF on that one.

[Fireworks 234]

Good to see you're back! Can't wait for more predictions!

BTW, there are a few teams from Purdue looking to make their mark at Buckeye

[MikeMascaro]

I appreciate 888 getting some recognition, that's for sure.
But I think this year will be a better year for us, we've got a robot much improved from last years.

Besides, it's our 8th year. ;]

[suj]

Regional s for us are so close but so far....

[Qbranch]

A whole day early!

It just isn't robot season without looking forward.

I hope 1024 isn't a flash in the pan too...

-q

[Akash Rastogi]

Nobody replaces 303's Fridge. Nobody

Great stuff here. Can't wait for more to come!

[Jeff Rodriguez]

Great info.

I kept clicking the links, hoping for pictures and videos of mentioned robots and all I got was some weird music videos. What gives?

[RyanCesiel]

A brilliant point from an informant:
Both 1024 and 245 had similar success before their break-out years (2 regional wins each), but 1024 has been somewhat more consistent. Nobody is suggesting that the Kil-a-Bytes are going to fade in obscurity, but question if they'll still be able to contend directly with juggernauts like 1114, 217, 71, and 111. They'll be a first round pick, but will need to partner with one of the greats if they intend to return to the moon... winners circle.

Wow, great point.

However, this year we finished a week and a half early with a very simple robot that works wonderfully. Last time we did that was in 2005.

Also, although we haven't had as much success with our robots, we did win a Chairman's and Woodie Flowers in 2006, and two website awards last year.

I agree with the comment regarding our lack of consistency though, that's been our greatest challenge.

Great post!

[waialua359]

The more I hear from looking forward, the more it reminds of one person (even with help and advise from others).
My guess is that he will certainly be at the DC regional during week 1 and that I saw him at all of our 3 regionals and championship last season.
I'd be more than happy to be one of the rankers for CMP this year again!
Even with my first newborn this past week, nothing will stop me from watching and attending events every week!
Only a Luna-tic would do that.

Last season there were debates on which regional to watch. It's a no-brainer that its the MidWest in '09. With more and more elite team collaborations occuring, the elite teams are looking to continue to stay on top.

[IBdrummer]

Originally Posted by waialua359

Last season there were debates on which regional to watch. It's a no-brainer that its the MidWest in '09. With more and more elite team collaborations occuring, the elite teams are looking to continue to stay on top.

For week one there is no doubt that the MidWest regional is going to be the most watched and most interesting competition. I think the collaborations are also going to make interesting alliance choices.

[XaulZan11]

Have to say I'm surprised to see 1732 mentioned after we have only made it to the finals once in three years. But anytime you get mentioned in between teams as strong as 1625 and 2171 is a good day, I guess. Maybe we aren't flying under the radar as much I thought (and hoped).

[nahstobor]

One of my favorite things to do before a competition is to read Looking Forward's prediction. Hopefully my team can impress enough at NJ to get on LF's big board for VCU in week 4.