By: Caleb Sykes
New: 01-02-2017 10:47 PM
Updated: 01-03-2017 06:20 PM
Total downloads: 40 times

This is a presentation of 7 distinct statistical prediction models of FRC matches from 2008-2016. The purpose is to determine which metrics have the most predictive value and where future efforts on predictive models should be focused.

This paper provides a comparison of common statistical prediction methods in order to determine which methods have the most predictive power. To see each model's predictions for each match during the period 2008-2016, as well as each team's rating before each match during this period, go to its corresponding workbook. The "Data Summary and Methodology" workbook contains details on each model, a FAQ, a summary of predictive capabilities of each model, and a side-by-side comparison of each model for the year 2016.

Attached Files

• Data Summary and Methodology.xlsx

  Data Summary and Methodology.xlsx

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  uploaded: 01-02-2017 10:47 PM
  filetype: lsx
  filesize: 1.67MB
  downloads: 32

  
  

• Elo winning margin.zip

  Elo winning margin.zip

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  uploaded: 01-03-2017 12:30 PM
  filetype: zip
  filesize: 23.92MB
  downloads: 3

  
  

• adjusted winning record.zip

  adjusted winning record.zip

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  uploaded: 01-03-2017 01:01 PM
  filetype: zip
  filesize: 18.37MB
  downloads: 0

  
  

• average score.zip

  average score.zip

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  uploaded: 01-03-2017 01:02 PM
  filetype: zip
  filesize: 20.66MB
  downloads: 0

  
  

• average winning margin.zip

  average winning margin.zip

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  uploaded: 01-03-2017 01:02 PM
  filetype: zip
  filesize: 20.66MB
  downloads: 0

  
  

• calculated contribution to win.zip

  calculated contribution to win.zip

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  uploaded: 01-03-2017 01:04 PM
  filetype: zip
  filesize: 21.83MB
  downloads: 1

  
  

• calculated contribution to WM.zip

  calculated contribution to WM.zip

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  uploaded: 01-03-2017 01:05 PM
  filetype: zip
  filesize: 21.76MB
  downloads: 2

  
  

• calculated contribution to score.zip

  calculated contribution to score.zip

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  uploaded: 01-03-2017 01:05 PM
  filetype: zip
  filesize: 21.74MB
  downloads: 0

  
  

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