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Miscellaneous Statistics Projects

Caleb Sykes

By: Caleb Sykes
New: 07-15-2017 11:00 PM
Updated: 07-24-2017 07:57 PM
Total downloads: 64 times


A collection of small projects that will be explained in the associated thread.

I frequently work on small projects that I don't believe merit entire threads on their own, so I have decided to upload them here and make a post about them in an existing thread. I also generally want my whitepapers to have instructions sheets so that anyone can pick them up and understand them. However, I don't want to bother with this for my smaller projects.

Attached Files

  • lsx IRI seeding projections investigator

    IRI seeding projections.xlsx

    downloaddownload file

    uploaded: 07-15-2017 11:00 PM
    filetype: lsx
    filesize: 5.13MB
    downloads: 54


  • lsx Elo and OPR comparison.xlsx

    Elo and OPR comparison.xlsx

    downloaddownload file

    uploaded: 07-24-2017 07:57 PM
    filetype: lsx
    filesize: 2.84MB
    downloads: 8



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07-15-2017 11:10 PM

Caleb Sykes


Unread Re: paper: Miscellaneous Statistics Projects

I frequently work on small projects that I don't believe merit entire threads on their own, so I have decided to upload them here and make a post about them in an existing thread. I also generally want my whitepapers to have instructions sheets so that anyone can pick them up and understand them. However, I don't want to bother with this for my smaller projects.



07-24-2017 08:12 PM

Caleb Sykes


Unread Re: paper: Miscellaneous Statistics Projects

In this post, Citrus Dad asked for a comparison of my Elo and OPR match predictions for the 2017 season. I have attached a file named "Elo and OPR comparison" that does this. Every qual match from 2017 is listed. Elo projections, OPR projections, and the average of the two, are also shown for each match. The square errors for all projections are shown, and these square errors are averaged together to get Brier scores for the three models.

Here are the Brier score summaries of the results.

Code:
Total Brier scores		
OPR	Elo	Average
0.212	0.217	0.209
		
Champs only Brier scores		
OPR	Elo	Average
0.208	0.210	0.204
The OPR and Elo models have similar Brier scores, with OPR taking a slight edge. This is directly in line with results from other years. However, predictions this year were much less predictive than any year since at least 2009. This is likely due to a combination of the non-linear and step-function-esque aspects of scoring for the 2017 game. My primary prediction method last season actually used a raw average of the Elo predictions and the OPR predictions, which provided more predictive power than either method alone.



07-25-2017 05:02 PM

Citrus Dad


Unread Re: paper: Miscellaneous Statistics Projects

Quote:
Originally Posted by Caleb Sykes View Post
In this post, Citrus Dad asked for a comparison of my Elo and OPR match predictions for the 2017 season. I have attached a file named "Elo and OPR comparison" that does this. Every qual match from 2017 is listed. Elo projections, OPR projections, and the average of the two, are also shown for each match. The square errors for all projections are shown, and these square errors are averaged together to get Brier scores for the three models.

Here are the Brier score summaries of the results.
Code:
Total Brier scores		
OPR	Elo	Average
0.212	0.217	0.209
		
Champs only Brier scores		
OPR	Elo	Average
0.208	0.210	0.204
The OPR and Elo models have similar Brier scores, with OPR taking a slight edge. This is directly in line with results from other years. However, predictions this year were much less predictive than any year since at least 2009. This is likely due to a combination of the non-linear and step-function-esque aspects of scoring for the 2017 game. My primary prediction method last season actually used a raw average of the Elo predictions and the OPR predictions, which provided more predictive power than either method alone.
Thanks



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