The spread sheet is wonderful. It is the kind of thing that FIRST should do for us. Be that as it may, you did an excellent job. We are in your debt.
Now for the sticking my neck out business.
Unless I am much mistaken, the numbers seem to indicate to me that there will be under 250 teams at the Nationals… …er ah… …Championship Event.
Here is how I reason:
212 registered right now.
With shrinkage this will probably fall to 205 or so based on historical evidence of folks that indend on getting funding but get it pulled at the last minute.
Now, there are 17 Regionals.
Winning a regional:
Assuming 2 on 2 robot format with 1 extra per alliance in the elimination rounds, means theoretically 51 teams from this criterion.
Winning a technical award:
Another 51 potential teams.
Winning the Chairman’s Award:
17 Teams.
Simplistically, that means a possible 119 added teams. But… we are double counting and counting our chickens before they are hatched.
For the Chairman’s Award, I suppose that only 25% of the teams that win Regional Chairman’s Awards will new teams for the Championships because either they are even teams or because they are in some other way qualified. Net 4 more teams.
Winning Technical Awards:
I suppose only 33% of these teams will be new teams that will want to go Florida – more may WANT to but won’t be able to pull it off in the short timeframe given. Net 17 teams.
Winning a Regional:
I suppose that somewhat less than 33% will be new teams that will go the the Championship. Selecting of teams is not random. Many teams going to a second regional after winning a first regional will be choosen because they won the last one. Also, a good team is more likely to win just because they are good. All in all, I expect that more teams than qualify this way will be able to find the money to go, but there will be fewer new teams for a number of reasons (not the least of which being that a team that wins a regional this year is more likely than average to have don well last year which means that they will already be going to FL). Bottom line: 17 Net new teams.
205+4+17+17= 243
Unless FIRST modifies the rules somehow, I suppose that it is a pretty safe bet that fewer than 250 teams attend the Championship Event in 2002.
By the way, I think this is probably a good thing for FIRST in the long run (as long time readers of these forums will undoubtably know).
Anyone else have a prediction?
Give your number and state your logic.
I may want to wager a case of Mt. Dew or two should there be any takers 
Joe J.