I just combed through the latest data on FIRST’s site; the magic number is now 356, a number I expect to shrink further with time.
Update: one more day until 2nd regional registration opens. 1148 teams have registered, bringing the total to about 66% of published capacity. As Mark pointed out earlier the number of teams registered is well ahead of this time last year.
178 rookie teams have registered so far. The most recent is FRC 2507 from Bishop DuBourg High School in St. Louis.
Eleven regionals are now at their published capacity: BAE Granite State, Midwest, Greater Kansas City, NASA VCU, Detroit, Florida, Oklahoma City, Boston, Hawaii, Minnesota, and SBPI Long Island. Three others are nearly full: Boilermaker, Peachtree, and Silicon Valley.
Updated regional-by-regional and week-by-week figures follow:
Regional / Attending / Open BAE Granite State / 42 / 0 Midwest Chicago / 36 / 0 New Jersey / 39 / 14 Oregon / 22 / 32 St. Louis / 20 / 18 Week 1: / 159 / 64 / 71% full Arizona / 32 / 22 Finger Lakes / 23 / 9 Greater Kansas City / 54 / 0 NASA/VCU Richmond / 54 / 0 San Diego / 25 / 13 Week 2: / 188 / 44 / 81% full Boilermaker / 29 / 3 Brazil / 0 / 30 Chesapeake / 23 / 31 Connecticut / 29 / 41 Detroit / 30 / 0 Florida / 54 / 0 Peachtree / 36 / 2 Pittsburgh / 8 / 23 Silicon Valley / 38 / 2 Wisconsin / 30 / 24 Week 3: / 278 / 156 / 64% full Buckeye / 19 / 31 Lone Star / 21 / 33 Los Angeles / 28 / 14 Microsoft Seattle / 18 / 14 Oklahoma City / 36 / 0 Davis/Sacramento / 12 / 22 Waterloo / 4 / 22 West Michigan / 25 / 19 Israel / 4 / 38 Week 4: / 167 / 193 / 46% full Bayou / 25 / 29 Boston / 41 / 0 Colorado / 23 / 15 Great Lakes / 43 / 11 Greater Toronto / 24 / 30 Hawaii / 28 / 0 Las Vegas / 20 / 21 Minnesota / 38 / 0 Palmetto / 17 / 14 Philadelphia / 28 / 6 SBPLI Long Island / 34 / 0 Week 5: / 321 / 126 / 72% full New York City / 35 / 19 / 65% full
It’s fast approaching last year’s total. I’m always interested when we get to final registration (except for those last minute 10 teams or so who finally get it together in January), how many teams have dropped out from the previous year.
We have several local teams on Billfred’s list that cannot register until they pass their School Board approval cycle, so they always register late. Most of the Israeli and Brazil teams also seem to all pop-in at the last minute.
One of the oddities introduced by the published capacity of individual Regionals is that the number of teams registered for already full Regionals continues to go up as Rookie teams add-in. So team registration goes up, but isn’t directly reflected by the remaining capacity %.
P.S. I just noticed that Richmond’s capacity actually seemed to drop by 2.
It’s still quite a guessing game for teams on the wait lists as to what the real capacity of a Regional is and what their chances are of getting in. FIRST requires Regionals to reserve more slots than are likely to be filled by Rookies, making wait lists possible. As it works now you have to talk to individual Regional Directors to know where you might stand.
Ten more teams have registered since my last update (this morning) bringing the total to 1158, including 185 rookie teams.
I wonder which state will have the most new teams this year?
So far Hawaii and Minnesota each show 21 rookies. Two new regionals off to flying starts …
Yea, it looks like the state of Minnesota just registered… (1162)
…and the Minnesota rookies now lead the pack.
Somebody up there is doing a great job!
This is probably a reflection on the great FLL program in Minnesota. The students naturally want to progress on to the next level of competition. Here’s the Minnesota FLL website:
They’ve been top-notch for years.
Second-event registration seems to have been the wake-up call; between the last update of my sheet on Sunday and the one I just did, some 56 returning teams have registered for an initial event. That means the magic number of missing teams is now an even 300 and decreasing. (Even if registration ceased today, that’s a 77% retention rate.)
Y’know, some people (like me) watch the Weather Channel for entertainment. Somebody could make a ton of money putting this FIRST registration live on cable…
If my count is in the neighborhood, 68 vets didn’t re-register in 2007, 101 in 2006, and 144 in 2005. Hovering around a 90% retention rate. Of course some of those teams just took a year off and did reappear the following season.
Each year the number of rookies keeps climbing and the number of veteran teams lost to us keeps dropping.
We’re about 70 registered rookies ahead of this same time last year. That will likely translate into an unusually large increase this year in the total number of rookies (we might hope). For the past three seasons FRC has gained ~40 more new teams over the gain of the year before (2005-208, 2006-243, 2007-286).
Predictions for fun anyone?
I’ll stick with my earlier prediction: 400 rookie FRC teams in 2008. If you estimate using the recent year trends that Mark provided above, my figure is about 25% higher than the extrapolation – but I’m allowed to dream. There are 200 rookies registered as of this evening, and we’re only about halfway through the registration period, so my dream-figure is still possible.
I’d go as high as 380 rookies if the “Price is Right.”
Billfred’s calculated 77% retention rate to-date is pretty close to the 80% retention at this same time last year. I think the retention rate in 2007 was actually ~95%, so I’ll predict we’ll see 95 veterans sit out this year.
Where do this years rookie number start?
The lowest-numbered 2008 rookie is team [strike]2230[/strike] 2330, J Adams Multimedia Productions & Fletcher High School. (The highest-numbered 2007 rookie was 2287, AEP, Texas/Houston Robotics (Bezos Foundation) & Sinton High School.)
It looks like FIRST is reserving fair number of numbers for future splits.
You mean 2330? I believe 2230 is a second year team from Israel.
It’s early and I’m still drying out from walking to class. (At least that’s my excuse.)
2330 is correct.
what do you mean by: Future splits?
- Where multiple schools were combined into a single team, and that team now wants to separate into different teams, or any single team wants to separate into different teams, the new teams do not qualify as Rookies unless the requirements set forth above in 2 are met. These teams will need to register as a new team and contact FIRST at email@example.com for further instructions.
Historically, teams that undertake such things get a number of the same vintage as their original number. FRC 22 spun off 4, which first competed in 2006, 710 spun off 744 in 2006, 386 spun off 425 in 2007, and 340 fielded second team 424 in 2007. (I imagine there are other examples; these are just the ones I recall.)
I’ve been working on a clean-sheet list, just to make sure any earlier errors weren’t compounded, and it gave me a chance to note some numbers that have popped up as new or returning this season from the sub-2330 set:
53 Last seen playing Triple Play, now registered for Chesapeake.
509 Appears to be a spinoff team, given the lack of history. (This post seems to indicate they’re descended from 501.) Headed for BAE.
566 Back after a season off, registered for SBPLI Long Island.
710 Also back after a season off, bound for Florida.
916 Looks like a spinoff, bound for Greater Kansas City.
972 Back from a year off, going to Silicon Valley.
1130 Like 53, last seen playing Triple Play. Bound for Oregon.
1378 Last seen in Vegas in 2005, this group of Hawaiians is bound for Oregon.
1531 Back from a one-year hiatus, going to Finger Lakes.
1988 Looks to be a spinoff, bound for Wisconsin.
question? if an event reads-0 pending-0 open capacity-that event is full until the december payment deadline.at that point, teams that don’t pay get put on wait list. then it is a matter of getting your money in fast to get into said event. is that pretty much how it works? can you be paid and on wait list or just on wait list. is wait list available for viewing?
can you get bumped off second regional at anytime till you pay? i’m just alittle concerned that all the close by regionals are 0-0 or more pending then open capacity. does it seem regionals are filling up faster.thanks for your help.
The quick answer is if you really want to get in somewhere it’s best to pay in advance. FIRST is also likely to be more accommodating if you do have to switch Regionals. I imagine they’ll make room for you somewhere close if they have to.
There’s no way to view the wait lists this year, nor a way to tell how many teams are cooling their heels on them. Only the Regional Director’s are permitted to see the wait list. You could try taking one out to dinner and prying the information out of them. Even if it doesn’t work the Director deserves the dinner.
Just so we’re clear…
It’s easier if you think of registration as involving three lists, in this order:
– Team List = already in and guaranteed (either paid or it’s your first Regional choice).
– Wait List = paid (or *first *Regional choice), but waiting for additional slots to be opened up. In order of first registration or payment date.
– Pending List = payment is pending (not an ordered list)
The use of “Pending” and the wait lists are somewhat complicated by how FIRST accepts teams as fully registered.
Everyone is automatically fully registered for their first Regional choice. Think of us as paid from the get-go for all intents and purposes even though we haven’t written a check yet (and paid teams are not reflected by “Pending”). It’s first-come though based on “Open Capacity” or rookie status. When “Open Capacity” is gone we go on the Regional “paid” wait list in the order we sign-up. FIRST has most Regionals reserve maybe double the number of slots anticipated for potential rookies, so unused slots will open up. The question always is “how many slots?” and “how many are ahead of us on the wait list?”
second+ Regional & Championship
The “Pending” count only records teams that have signed-up for the Regional as a second+ choice (or Championships). Because, after the first Regional it’s a “first-paid = first-registered” system, so payment is “Pending.”
“Pending” doesn’t reflect the number of teams already on the wait list for this Regional as a first choice or those who have already paid.
means everyone who signed up for this Regional as their *first-*choice (payment isn’t part of the equation in this one case) are either on the team list (Open Capacity # of teams plus rookies) or on the wait list for slots to be released. It also includes teams that registered as a *second+ *Regional AND who have paid.
For example, if you registered today for Hawaii as a third Regional, you would be added to the Pending count. As soon as FIRST received your P.O. or check you would be moved to the wait list behind the other teams that registered as a first Regional and teams that paid before you. The Pending count would go down by one. Finally, when the remaining unclaimed rookie slots are opened up, you might get one, the Regional Director might decide to make all the pits a little smaller to squeeze you in, or FIRST will work with you to find you space in another Regional.
By the way, you can pay for your events in any order you choose. So you might want to pay for the iffy one first to get as high on the wait list as possible. For instance, my team’s funding comes from several different sources and due to agreements about who pays for what we actually paid for our Championship slot first (moving us to the Team List), and a portion of our second Regional next. Since our first Regional is already guaranteed, we can wait for the payment deadline and not risk our spot.