Attached.
Subject to change based on team arrival at IRI.
IRIQualSchedule - 2015 V1.xlsx (19.5 KB)
IRIQualSchedule - 2015 V1.xlsx (19.5 KB)
2015 IRI Preliminary Match Schedule
Seeing this, 1114 has a great chance of seeding first, they seem to be playing with the best teams at iri very often.
Match 63 looks interesting…
Wow we got a nice schedule. Excited to play with all these great teams.
I may have missed this conversation, but will the matches be archived for people who will not be able to watch IRI in real time? I wanna watch but can’t 
Match 25 looks to be incredibly good. 2056, 1730 and 1756 on one alliance, I guess that’s iri.
Second the question. Does anyone know? It’s a little difficult with a big time change to watch real-time.
Yes, IRI matches are archived on youtube on the IndianaFIRST channel
EDIT: Q15 looks interesting and I am STOKED for Q3
thanks 
What time are elimination matches scheduled to start at? I looked for a schedule that included this but didn’t find one.
Using this match schedule and teams’ most recent OPR’s, I’ve run Monte Carlo simulations for IRI 2015.
I’ve adjusted the randomization model from ± 10 points to ± 36 points to adjust for IRI rule changes, but other than that the assumptions made are about the same.
This is just for fun. I don’t expect these to even remotely line up with actual rankings given the craziness of IRI and its rule changes and the amount of time teams have had to improve.
Here are the results after 10,000 iterations:
Event: iri
Teams found: 67
Iterations: 10000
Number AvgRank Max Min
195 3.4832 46.0 1.0
1023 4.3134 55.0 1.0
118 4.6559 48.0 1.0
2337 7.4331 60.0 1.0
4143 13.2243 64.0 1.0
2122 13.9563 62.0 1.0
107 14.3209 62.0 1.0
2468 14.7406 64.0 1.0
1730 14.9395 65.0 1.0
1114 15.7037 62.0 1.0
111 18.9118 65.0 1.0
33 19.0198 65.0 1.0
316 19.1749 65.0 1.0
1720 20.9217 67.0 1.0
548 21.341 66.0 1.0
829 21.4001 66.0 1.0
3641 21.5216 65.0 1.0
2056 21.8729 67.0 1.0
379 22.777 67.0 1.0
624 23.0898 67.0 1.0
3130 25.7827 67.0 1.0
4678 25.9262 67.0 1.0
5254 26.2098 66.0 1.0
2502 26.447 66.0 1.0
2590 27.7846 67.0 1.0
1806 29.9685 67.0 1.0
1756 30.9229 67.0 1.0
245 31.5831 67.0 1.0
469 33.8646 67.0 1.0
234 34.058 67.0 1.0
1619 34.1976 67.0 1.0
744 34.8391 67.0 1.0
330 35.124 67.0 1.0
3824 35.3259 67.0 1.0
503 35.5829 67.0 1.0
1325 35.8103 67.0 1.0
5188 35.9743 67.0 2.0
217 36.5755 67.0 1.0
1640 36.7092 67.0 2.0
67 36.7751 67.0 2.0
4039 37.208 67.0 2.0
384 38.0809 67.0 2.0
1625 39.9881 67.0 1.0
2338 40.6733 67.0 1.0
340 43.5065 67.0 3.0
2826 44.3424 67.0 1.0
27 44.6912 67.0 3.0
20 44.9441 67.0 2.0
68 45.8721 67.0 3.0
1741 46.3385 67.0 4.0
48 46.6938 67.0 3.0
16 47.4771 67.0 3.0
1310 47.8421 67.0 3.0
179 48.0229 67.0 2.0
1711 48.2938 67.0 4.0
5413 48.3966 67.0 4.0
2614 49.1928 67.0 2.0
1218 49.2469 67.0 4.0
1923 49.303 67.0 3.0
2867 50.0946 67.0 3.0
233 50.1697 67.0 4.0
1024 52.5114 67.0 7.0
225 56.6266 67.0 8.0
226 58.1545 67.0 9.0
1657 59.8648 67.0 12.0
3015 60.4362 67.0 8.0
2512 63.7653 67.0 16.0
Well then… we have a lot to live up to…
Would it be possible to run again with the deviation being ± 10 points? I think setting your random term to ± 36 is making your predictions too random, because that’s three stacks of randomness per alliance. Setting it to ± 10 points would be better, because that is like saying one team per alliance could miss a stack from their average, which seems about right for IRI level consistency. It would also allow for some comparison to how competitive it is to get the first seed in comparison to your division numbers, which did a decent job at predicting the top seeds (except the predicted second seeded team in Newton was the last pick of the second round).
Rerun with my CMP configuration. +/- 10pts randomness per team.
Division: iri
Teams found: 67
Iterations: 100000
Number AvgRank Max Min
118 1.4292 8.0 1.0
1023 2.26691 12.0 1.0
1730 3.77114 17.0 1.0
1114 3.82938 15.0 1.0
195 4.24932 18.0 1.0
107 8.09859 27.0 1.0
2337 9.35797 30.0 2.0
4143 10.1961 32.0 2.0
3130 10.85173 35.0 2.0
2122 10.89984 38.0 2.0
2826 11.06818 34.0 2.0
469 11.55042 36.0 2.0
5254 13.01782 41.0 3.0
1806 13.22972 38.0 3.0
2056 14.61626 41.0 3.0
548 15.49613 43.0 3.0
5413 18.4363 47.0 5.0
33 20.37055 48.0 5.0
1310 21.01449 51.0 4.0
2468 21.04116 52.0 5.0
316 23.20093 54.0 5.0
2590 23.68339 56.0 6.0
624 25.34947 54.0 6.0
234 25.99851 57.0 7.0
1720 26.49102 57.0 7.0
4039 27.1181 59.0 6.0
1640 27.46469 57.0 7.0
111 28.08338 57.0 6.0
233 28.5944 58.0 9.0
379 29.01309 58.0 8.0
4678 29.80839 60.0 8.0
2502 31.68775 60.0 9.0
3641 32.19362 62.0 9.0
1756 32.57385 61.0 10.0
1325 33.78067 61.0 9.0
829 36.3367 63.0 11.0
2338 38.08475 63.0 13.0
3824 39.16215 65.0 14.0
1741 40.16131 64.0 13.0
340 42.26218 65.0 15.0
27 43.12203 66.0 15.0
16 43.2314 65.0 15.0
1657 43.61683 65.0 15.0
67 44.19328 65.0 17.0
1218 44.37871 65.0 19.0
226 45.81232 66.0 19.0
330 46.15928 66.0 19.0
1024 46.72132 66.0 20.0
5188 47.55189 66.0 21.0
1619 48.18829 66.0 20.0
225 48.42906 66.0 21.0
245 48.6379 66.0 21.0
744 49.43817 66.0 22.0
68 51.28834 66.0 20.0
20 55.19088 67.0 28.0
2614 55.73767 67.0 29.0
384 56.30734 67.0 27.0
2867 57.08954 67.0 29.0
1711 58.30159 67.0 33.0
1625 58.9471 67.0 32.0
503 59.55302 67.0 35.0
48 60.00522 67.0 33.0
179 62.19169 67.0 41.0
1923 62.60326 67.0 43.0
217 63.09955 67.0 42.0
2512 65.46207 67.0 52.0
3015 66.90269 67.0 60.0
It looks like FIRST also has it on their official website:
http://frc-events.usfirst.org/2015/IRI/qualifications
Match 78 is an Archimedes reunion - all 3 teams on the red alliance played in the Archimedes finals.
Also, Q81 will probably be one of the highest scoring matches of the day, as I personally believe all 6 teams are extremely competitive and high-scoring. (That being said, there are many other good teams in many other matches that I’m sure will prove me wrong.)