2018 IRI Invite Prediction Contest

#1

With the increasing interest in prediction contests on these forums, I would like to introduce another for everyone’s favorite offseason.

OBJECTIVE:
Players compete to correctly predict which teams will be invited to the 2018 Indiana Robotics Invitational.

PRIZES:
The winner will receive a $15 Amazon gift card (as long as there are at least five submissions).

SUBMISSION:
Indicate which teams you expect to be accepted to IRI using this Google form prior to May 21st: https://goo.gl/forms/gGdGFCqBSdVpn2Eh2

Submissions on or after May 21st will not be scored.

Submissions that do not include Chief Delphi usernames will not be scored.

Only one submission (the most recent) will be scored for each participant.

SCORING:
All players will be ranked by their submissions. The first sort is number of correctly predicted acceptances and rejections, from greatest to fewest. Ties will be broken using the following criteria:

  1. Number of correct predictions on the team (or teams, if there are multiple with the same) with the lowest correct prediction rate.
  2. Absolute value of the difference between predicted number of teams invited and actual number of teams invited (smaller is favored)
  3. Timestamp (earliest submission wins)

The player ranked #1 is the Winner.

Disclaimer: my decision regarding the interpretation of any of these rules is final. I reserve the right to modify the rules and scoring criteria at any time.

2019 IRI Invite Prediction Contest
#2

I submitted my predictions based on the 70 highest teams using my adjusted district points algorithm.

Here are my ranking for anyone interested:


Team #       Adjusted DP
3357      113.7830583
195      110.2986945
2056      107.2672614
2590      107.1837447
225      103.9294662
3707      103.3946056
1533      102.6443259
1619      102.2350824
217      101.6313752
118      101.6287958
67      100.0755448
319      99.27494049
3538      98.83412189
494      95.80465488
868      95.56039557
5406      94.98237864
2481      93.06499718
3452      92.86037545
359      92.3071389
1648      91.12303781
2614      89.3514916
133      88.68457631
3641      88.49757412
1640      88.0016532
1796      87.07791675
125      86.98929131
340      86.01874334
302      85.57715093
1747      85.53177255
624      84.12226944
2451      84.12226944
2337      84.00835535
694      83.28862533
33      82.72803663
16      82.03296105
3476      81.38411277
330      81.29142016
1806      80.36449404
2168      79.8951289
1706      79.53026054
1102      77.86236002
3478      77.76910093
384      77.17649828
1360      76.93019433
865      75.2212239
2771      73.89545818
2655      73.80794273
4587      73.41254819
829      72.27694447
1024      71.65928997
1731      71.30688587
2791      71.18792552
4028      70.81715507
4405      69.33493052
5254      69.14868807
422      68.07462029
88      67.55544958
2826      66.73868018
2834      66.51822935
245      66.19409804
6090      65.2894911
772      64.99771566
1746      63.84203607
1218      63.81166745
3015      63.12366833
5460      62.06101482
1741      61.86397166
4976      61.42062457
3620      61.25010645
3847      60.06481216
------70 Team Cutoff------
1684      60.01100816
1923      59.98374196
4635      59.79501855
503      59.23294304
2013      59.05348507
2502      58.67442299
4265      58.21095993
1710      58.11826732
708      57.79048339
4039      57.65647908
2877      57.33576842
2175      57.28403382
1189      57.18798605
4944      56.83937124
3539      56.79011046
3683      56.76737471
234      56.35995381
469      56.30887045
4967      56.30161017
4499      54.96671853
20      53.76171459
1625      52.46401803
2016      52.09762696
2363      51.53245728
3940      50.97289128
2194      50.51747319
4618      50.36726151
2468      48.35135847
1018      46.09294079
1720      45.74053669
1902      45.6974574
4143      44.93677109
51      44.26271303
6800      44.121683
269      43.70562667
930      42.47448226
1836      42.47448226
4607      42.17513817
4130      40.93571517
5030      40.9243473
447      39.83303137
2338      39.57974505
2171      38.71770376
1592      36.31876019
167      36.05742582
6647      35.68665537
3875      33.85647137
5145      33.73335693
4206      32.62532695
1      30.16303813
3947      24.35498363
4592      24.00731606
48      18.4671662

(The only fudging of data I did was inviting 234 since they’re hosting the event)

#3

This is a fun contest. I’d love to see the results (with the names stripped away) at some point down the road to get a chance to play with the data.

#4

1710 is an automatic invite since they were a part of the winning alliance last year. Also IRI tends to go a little over the cutoff number because they expect some teams to decline for some reason or another.

#5

So, how are submissions going? Got five yet? :slight_smile:

#6

If Eugene and Caleb and Avi compete then I’m in.

#7

I’ll be in. Was going to wait until next year to build an IRI invite model but I guess I’m making it this weekend instead. Good thing there’s no big MN event or anything this weekend to distract me. :stuck_out_tongue:

#8

Done!

#9

Here are my predictions. Any questions, suggestions, or comments telling me I’m stupid are welcome.

16
33
67
118
125
133
195
217
225
234
302
319
330
340
359
494
624
694
865
868
1018
1024
1102
1360
1533
1619
1640
1648
1706
1710
1720
1731
1741
1747
1796
1806
1836
1902
1923
2013
2056
2168
2337
2363
2468
2481
2502
2590
2614
2655
2791
2826
2834
3357
3452
3476
3478
3538
3641
3683
3707
3847
3940
4028
4265
4499
4587
4607
4944
5254
5406
6800
#10

I’m in, guess all we need is Eugene before we get to see more fancy ML from you :smiley:

Good luck everybody!

#11

My method involved picking teams I knew and then randomly mashing the screen until I got 80 teams, if anyone was interested.

#12

I predicted 72 invitees. Of those, I am very confident about 62, more than 50% confident about 5, less than 50% confident about 3, and I am probably wrong about 2.

So, I expect to score 67, and will be pleasantly surprised if I score higher.

#13

Would love to know why 384 misses and 1731 makes it.

#14

My method was picking gimme teams, then going on TBA to compare teams that were on the bubble.

#15

Will a team that pulls their application be removed from consideration or will they be considered a rejection? I’m assuming the latter since you won’t know which teams pulled their applications unless you get a list from the IRI selection committee.

For example, last year 4188 was on the original application list, and not on the accepted list, but they had pulled their application before the accepted list was published.

#16

Submitted my list.

16
33
67
118
125
133
195
217
225
234
302
319
330
340
359
469
494
624
694
829
865
868
1018
1024
1102
1360
1533
1619
1640
1648
1706
1710
1720
1731
1741
1747
1796
1806
1923
2013
2056
2168
2337
2451
2481
2502
2590
2614
2655
2791
2826
2834
3357
3452
3476
3478
3538
3641
3707
3940
4028
4265
4499
4587
4944
5254
5406
6090
6647
6800

Bubble Teams

88
2363
3683
3847
4607
5460

#17

I had 1731 over 384 due to overall better results throughout the season. 384 may have won DCMP from the 8th seed, but 1731 seeded first overall and also did better at Detroit.

Of course, I’ve only seen the 1836 submission. 384 was one of my bubble teams, as was 422. I don’t envy the selection committee!

#18

Why pick 2363? When is the last time a team qualified to this event without ever getting to finals at any event?

#19

Neat! That’s where I have us too.

#20

Here’s data from 2012 to 2017 on teams that attended IRI without making finals at an event that year:

Team	Year
1024	2017
234	2016
4967	2016
111	2015
16	2015
1657	2015
1720	2015
1741	2015
179	2015
2867	2015
1086	2014
1619	2014
1730	2014
233	2014
2867	2014
45	2014
461	2014
71	2014
1024	2013
1592	2013
3947	2013
4039	2013
45	2013
461	2013
624	2013
68	2013
1024	2012
1538	2012
1730	2012
1732	2012
1741	2012
1902	2012
2168	2012
292	2012
2949	2012
3138	2012
447	2012
461	2012
503	2012
51	2012
829	2012
868	2012
907	2012

Or just the counts:


Year	Teams
2017	1
2016	2
2015	7
2014	8
2013	8
2012	17

It has been getting harder.