How it works is that all entrants will submit an average predicted rank for each team at CC (although if you do have a full probability distribution I’d love to see it). What I like about average rank is that it allows a way to quantify uncertainty. If you think two teams will seed about equally well, that’s fine, just give them the same predicted rank. If you don’t like dealing with uncertainty, just submit a list of teams from best to worst with predicted ranks 1 to 41. The winner of this contest will receive a $30 WCP giftcard courtesy of @R.C. I will be entering a submission, but as a non-competitor for the giftcard.
**How to submit: **
- Go to this link
- Go to the “Predictions” tab
- Add your name to the top row
- Edit the values in your column as you see fit, make sure your predictions line up correctly with the team list in the first column.
- Limit one entry per person
- Submission deadline is Thursday 9/26 at 11:59PM central time.
- You can make changes to your predictions as frequently as you want up to the deadline, but at the deadline I will copy all submissions as they are for official scoring.
- The winner must reply to my PM to them asking for contact info within one week of the completion of Chezy Champs, otherwise the award is forfeited.
- I reserve the right to remove any submission for any reason (e.g. if I find out you are throwing matches to improve your predictions).
- I reserve the right to edit or add any rules at any time.
After qual matches are completed at Chezy Champs, I’ll take the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of each submission compared to the actual rankings. The lowest RMSE is the winner. For example, here is a sheet showing how I would have calculated the RMSE for my 2018 pre-event IRI projections. If you are missing a team from the submission, I will use a predicted rank of 0 for them. If you have an additional team that doesn’t end up competing, they will be ignored in the score.
Feel free to edit anything in the workbook except other people’s submissions, you can make cool graphs/analysis and add in more tabs to the workbook etc… Also, you can use this time to share whatever you want, so if you want to share match-by-match WLT predictions, bonus RP predictions, team strength estimations, etc… by all means do so in here or in the shared book.
Well, have at it. Keep in mind the team list could still change, so keep an eye on that if you submit early. I’m really interested in how people derive their predictions, so at a minimum please also leave a short description of how you derived your predictions, as well as if you were building off of someone else’s work or starting from scratch.