2019 Chezy Champs Ranking Projection Contest

Announcing the 2019 Chezy Champs Ranking Projection Contest sponsored by WCP! This will be a similar contest to the one I hosted last year that @Ian_H won.

How it works is that all entrants will submit an average predicted rank for each team at CC (although if you do have a full probability distribution I’d love to see it). What I like about average rank is that it allows a way to quantify uncertainty. If you think two teams will seed about equally well, that’s fine, just give them the same predicted rank. If you don’t like dealing with uncertainty, just submit a list of teams from best to worst with predicted ranks 1 to 41. The winner of this contest will receive a $30 WCP giftcard courtesy of @R.C. I will be entering a submission, but as a non-competitor for the giftcard.

**How to submit: **

  1. Go to this link
  2. Go to the “Predictions” tab
  3. Add your name to the top row
  4. Edit the values in your column as you see fit, make sure your predictions line up correctly with the team list in the first column.

**Rules: **

  • Limit one entry per person
  • Submission deadline is Thursday 9/26 at 11:59PM central time.
  • You can make changes to your predictions as frequently as you want up to the deadline, but at the deadline I will copy all submissions as they are for official scoring.
  • The winner must reply to my PM to them asking for contact info within one week of the completion of Chezy Champs, otherwise the award is forfeited.
  • I reserve the right to remove any submission for any reason (e.g. if I find out you are throwing matches to improve your predictions).
  • I reserve the right to edit or add any rules at any time.

**Scoring: **
After qual matches are completed at Chezy Champs, I’ll take the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of each submission compared to the actual rankings. The lowest RMSE is the winner. For example, here is a sheet showing how I would have calculated the RMSE for my 2018 pre-event IRI projections. If you are missing a team from the submission, I will use a predicted rank of 0 for them. If you have an additional team that doesn’t end up competing, they will be ignored in the score.

**Other: **
Feel free to edit anything in the workbook except other people’s submissions, you can make cool graphs/analysis and add in more tabs to the workbook etc… Also, you can use this time to share whatever you want, so if you want to share match-by-match WLT predictions, bonus RP predictions, team strength estimations, etc… by all means do so in here or in the shared book.

Well, have at it. Keep in mind the team list could still change, so keep an eye on that if you submit early. I’m really interested in how people derive their predictions, so at a minimum please also leave a short description of how you derived your predictions, as well as if you were building off of someone else’s work or starting from scratch.

4 Likes

Prediction solely based on maxOPR of any event they have been to that has scores listed on TBA.

Predictions

|------OPR------|Team|Rank|
|46.99020787|2910-|1|
|45.11717051|1619-|2|
|44.5440169–|1678-|3|
|43.59351616|973—|4|
|42.50296101|971—|5|
|41.55994563|254—|6|
|40.01886315|3310-|7|
|39.04020152|5199-|8|
|37.84157758|3309-|9|
|37.7341629–|649–|10|
|37.7232206–|604–|11|
|37.67855888|846–|12|
|37.6734823–|4414|13|
|37.14550166|2046|14|
|36.36959917|5818|15|
|35.74904633|3647|16|
|34.41160377|1983|17|
|32.91538737|2659|18|
|32.38963164|115–|19|
|32.35583879|114–|20|
|29.89406999|2733|21|
|29.81728575|2930|22|
|29.62152078|6443|23|
|29.58583416|1868|24|
|29.32332547|4183|25|
|29.3015109–|5507|26|
|29.05384246|2928|27|
|28.76434294|3476|28|
|27.09328609|2557|29|
|26.77138785|5026|30|
|25.94587982|1671|31|
|25.28129075|3218|32|
|24.7742985–|5700|33|
|24.39055607|696–|34|
|24.29717114|2102|35|
|24.0235426–|498–|36|
|23.49639673|972–|37|
|23.43478178|1197|38|
|21.02211552|5940|39|
|20.61200741|1072|40|
|19.82948834|1710|41|

3 Likes

Go predict 254 to seed 6th and we’ll see how that turns out

5 Likes

New rule: no trash talk unless you submit your own predictions. :sunglasses:

17 Likes

Do my predictions have to be reasonable? Could I say rank teams in order of team number and then trash talk?

:thinking:

As long as you recognize that the person you are roasting is probably going to beat you in the contest, go for it lol.

Oh boy, another projection contest to lose at!

2 Likes

The hardest choices require the strongest wills.

4 Likes

I don’t think I will find time to make a real metric and compete, but I would like to make my bold prediction that there will be a tie for 1st seed on RS with 4.0

1 Like

Bold indeed. I just checked how often this would happen in my simulator, and it literally only happened twice out of 10000 simulations, so a 0.02% chance. I think I’d take 100 to 1 odds against this.

This wouldn’t take into account the changes to the Rocket RP though, correct?

Correct. OK fine 20 to 1 against.

2 Likes

I completely forgot about the RP changes. That probably affects my ratings. Ugh.

1 Like

Is there a max bet size for this prop?

1 Like

Yeah, I’d be willing to bet at 20 to 1. Not that I really think it’s likely. (After all, two teams would have to go undefeated) I just think multiple teams will get all the bonus RPs.

No teams went undefeated at IRI, and no teams got all the bonus RPs at IRI. For this bet to work you need at least 2 teams in both categories, and they also have to be the same two teams.

Also, IRI had more teams, so more opportunities for no missed bonuses (or a lucky schedule). Chezy will also likely have 10 matches per team instead of the 9 at IRI, so there will be even more chances to miss a bonus RP.

Also at Chezy, each team will have to play against about 30 opponents, so even if you thought there were 2 teams guaranteed to get 4RPs, only one of them can go undefeated about 75% of the time just due to schedule.

The only big thing Chezy might have going for it is the bonus RP changes, but it’s not obvious to me that will improve RP scores all around. IRI had 45% success rate for the rocket and 80% for the HAB. My guess would be that these changes push it to more like 55% for the rocket and 70% for the HAB. Maybe it helps a little, but not a ton.

No longer taking bets, Clint and I already made one. :grin:

Has anyone ever gotten all the bonus RPs at any event this year (in season or off season)? There were none for any of the big events I checked. Also it wasn’t just the rocket RP holding teams back, many teams with almost all RPs missed a HAB at least once.

1323 was the closest this year at Sacramento, being one cargo in a rocket away from the RP in match 40 and getting every other bonus RP. They also would’ve been the only team with a 4 RP average all season had they hit that RP. I don’t know how to use TBA API so I can’t search for most extra RPs earned in one event but I’m pretty sure that 1323 came the closest.

1 Like