Correct. OK fine 20 to 1 against.
I completely forgot about the RP changes. That probably affects my ratings. Ugh.
Is there a max bet size for this prop?
Yeah, I’d be willing to bet at 20 to 1. Not that I really think it’s likely. (After all, two teams would have to go undefeated) I just think multiple teams will get all the bonus RPs.
No teams went undefeated at IRI, and no teams got all the bonus RPs at IRI. For this bet to work you need at least 2 teams in both categories, and they also have to be the same two teams.
Also, IRI had more teams, so more opportunities for no missed bonuses (or a lucky schedule). Chezy will also likely have 10 matches per team instead of the 9 at IRI, so there will be even more chances to miss a bonus RP.
Also at Chezy, each team will have to play against about 30 opponents, so even if you thought there were 2 teams guaranteed to get 4RPs, only one of them can go undefeated about 75% of the time just due to schedule.
The only big thing Chezy might have going for it is the bonus RP changes, but it’s not obvious to me that will improve RP scores all around. IRI had 45% success rate for the rocket and 80% for the HAB. My guess would be that these changes push it to more like 55% for the rocket and 70% for the HAB. Maybe it helps a little, but not a ton.
No longer taking bets, Clint and I already made one.
Has anyone ever gotten all the bonus RPs at any event this year (in season or off season)? There were none for any of the big events I checked. Also it wasn’t just the rocket RP holding teams back, many teams with almost all RPs missed a HAB at least once.
1323 was the closest this year at Sacramento, being one cargo in a rocket away from the RP in match 40 and getting every other bonus RP. They also would’ve been the only team with a 4 RP average all season had they hit that RP. I don’t know how to use TBA API so I can’t search for most extra RPs earned in one event but I’m pretty sure that 1323 came the closest.
Chezy Champs is coming up fast! Remember to get your submissions in. 3310 has dropped so I’ve removed them, make sure to update if you submitted early.
The preliminary match schedule is out! Update your projections accordingly if you so choose. If you make match by match predictions, an easy way to get projections from those would be to download my event simulator and override my default match predictions with whatever you think the odds for each match actually are.
Alright, predictions have locked. We have 11 contestants this year! Which is almost double what we had last year.
Here are the teams with the biggest discrepancies between predictions:
1197 tops the list, with an enormous spread of rank 5 at a minimum to rank 38 at maximum. Looks to me like Jace is an 1197 fangirl or something.
The next two teams on the list, 2928 and 846, are the teams that I estimate have the best and worst schedules respectively. Since I think only GaryH, IanH, Jago and I are the only ones who factored in the unofficial schedules, that is probably the cause of the discrepancy.
Finally, here’s a summary of how confident everyone is. A higher standard deviation means bolder predictions, and a lower standard deviation means conservative predictions:
@Ian_H, the defending champ has the lowest prediction confidence. My suspicion is that he’ll win again and that the rest of you are overconfident, but we’ll have to see.
To all the entrants, if you could share how you arrived at your predictions, I’d like that, so please do. Best of luck!
I’m not sure that’s realistic. Remember, the hab climb points necessary for the RP are increased at CC
I did a match by match manual win percentage prediction off of the preliminary schedule, and then looked for any matches where either ranking point would be more or less likely and filled that in. Then did a small <20 event simulations and averaged the results. I also saw that everyone predicted 2557 would be ranked worse than I did, so I artificially tweaked their rank by a few points.
Not feeling very confident, I would predict that @Caleb_Sykes will win.
To be honest, I dont think I had realized that at the time…
I win, 254 and 114 are the only 4rp teams remaining, and they play against each other in q55. Thanks for the 5$ @Clint_Ott
Well, day 1 is over, using the current ranks, here’s how everyone stands:
Everyone’s beating the baseline predictions of Ignoramus, which is great! The average of everyone’s predictions has an RMSE of 9.0, which is solid. The four of us that used the preliminary schedules have a noticeable lead over those that didn’t, which shows how important schedules really are in determining teams’ outcomes.
Currently GaryH is leading the pack at 8.3, but with plenty of matches to go that’s far from a lock. If we plug in the predicted results from my simulator, here is what I would expect the final scores to look like (ignore my predictions of myself because of feedback):
Estimated Final Standings
I also want to look at the teams that are the biggest overperformers relative to the consensus expectations:
114 is the biggest overperformer by far. They had an average predicted rank of 22.6, and their best ranking prediction came from Evan, who had them at rank 15.4. Well 114 is doing far better than anyone guessed with their current rank of third. I’m happy for that since they were one of my pick-em teams.
Next we have 5507, who had an average predicted rank of 25.7, and a minimum of 12. They also managed to exceed everyone’s expectations to get to their current seed of 9. Something something quit underestimating eagle teams.
Finally we have 2930, who had an average predicted rank of 21.1, and a minimum of 15. Currently sitting at 8th is also well above all expectations.
Honorable mentions to 3218, 1983, 6443, 2102, 1671, and 498, who all managed to exceed every single predictor’s expectations.
We’ll see how it all shakes up tomorrow!
Since I’m a non-competitor, the winner of the contest is GaryH! He eked it out over IanH by a mere 0.01! Gary, I don’t know your CD username, so I can’t message you. Please PM me by October 6 to receive your WCP gift-card otherwise it will be forfeited.
Thanks for competing everyone! We were all better than a blind prediction, and the average of all the predictions was a solid contender for first place. Since I forgot to mention it before, my predictions were just the ranking projections from my simulator reverted 20% toward the mean rank (20.5). The big differences compared to my submissions from last year is that I tweaked Elo a bit at the start of this season to use max Elos instead of end of season Elos to create start of season Elos, and that I used ILSs instead of predicted contributions for the bonus RPs. Gary, if you would also care to share your methodology I’d love to hear it.
I’ll probably do this again next year provided there is interest.
In case anyone is looking for an easy way to improve your predictions next year, I highly recommend mean-reversion. Essentially, after making your raw predictions, take those and combine them with the average (20.5 this year) rank in a weighted average. How strongly to weight your predictions depends on how confident you are. If you are very overconfident, you should use a lot of mean-reversion to compensate. If you are underconfident, then you can actually use a negative weight. The formula to do this is just (new rank) = (old rank) X (1 - (mean reversion weight)) + (average rank) X (mean reversion weight)
Here are the weights that would have given every team the highest scores:
|Team||RMSE w/out mean reversion||RMSE w/ Mean Reversion||Improvement||Mean Reversion|
Almost everyone could stand to improve by adding in some mean reversion. I actually shouldn’t have done the 20% mean reversion that I did, as I overcompensated and made my score slightly worse, although it wasn’t a large effect.
I would recommend to almost everyone that you should mean-revert your predictions by 20% next year.
GaryH is ThunderChief on CD, also known as Gary Hedge, the “Predictions Mentor” for team 3476, Code Orange. (ThunderChief comes from being a main Mentor for team 980, ThunderBots when my son, Andrew Hedge, was in High School.)
I am so happy to win this contest and validate my prediction methodology. I correctly predicted Code Orange would win 3 and lose 7. Sorry team, but our schedule was really hard. I also correctly predicted the Win/Loss of 46 out of the first 53 matches. Predicting the Bonus RPs was harder.
I am curious who “IanH” is. Will you reveal yourself? PS/ This is the second time we have the honor to help warm up the Cheesy Poofs for the Semi-Finals by being a member of the #8 Alliance. #8 Alliance was the only underdog that did not perform an upset in the QFs. Congratulations to 5507, 2733, 498 and 2557 for being in the Finals, outperforming all predictions.
Ian H is @Ian_H, a 5026 mentor who does a little bit of everything, including strategy.