2019 Chezy Champs Ranking Projection Contest

Final results:

Caleb 7.51
GaryH 8.31
IanH 8.32
Average 8.74
Jago 8.90
Daniel 9.55
Evan 9.55
Kaitlyn 10.12
Xand10 10.26
BordomBeThyName 10.55
Teddy 10.74
lcraig910 10.92
Jace 11.28
Ignoramus 11.54

Since I’m a non-competitor, the winner of the contest is GaryH! He eked it out over IanH by a mere 0.01! Gary, I don’t know your CD username, so I can’t message you. Please PM me by October 6 to receive your WCP gift-card otherwise it will be forfeited.

Thanks for competing everyone! We were all better than a blind prediction, and the average of all the predictions was a solid contender for first place. Since I forgot to mention it before, my predictions were just the ranking projections from my simulator reverted 20% toward the mean rank (20.5). The big differences compared to my submissions from last year is that I tweaked Elo a bit at the start of this season to use max Elos instead of end of season Elos to create start of season Elos, and that I used ILSs instead of predicted contributions for the bonus RPs. Gary, if you would also care to share your methodology I’d love to hear it.

I’ll probably do this again next year provided there is interest.