This is the official thread for the $50 Houston Match Prediction Contest sponsored by VEXPRO/WCP. Here is the contest from last year for reference. Anyone can submit their predictions for whichever division(s) they choose to, using the preliminary schedule which was released by FIRST a few days ago. The entry with the lowest Brier score as well as the entry with the most matches correctly predicted will each receive a $25 VEXPRO/WCP giftcard
- The master spreadsheet is here (it’s currently a copy of last year’s, please make edits to get it set for this year).
- I will use Brier scores to determine the best model. Your prediction will be subtracted from the actual result (red win = 0, blue win = 1, tie = 0.5), and then squared. So if you predict a 85% blue win probability, and blue does win, then your Brier score for that match would be 0.15^2 = 0.0225.
- The model with the lowest average Brier score, throughout all matches from all eligible divisions (see the 5th bullet point in “Other rules”), will win the contest.
- You are welcome to not enter all divisions, but your predictions for all divisions that you do not enter will be considered to be 0.5 (tie) for every match, for the sake of finding the best overall model.
- Winners must send me a PM on Chief Delphi within 1 week of the end of Houston half-champs to claim the giftcard.
- Limit one submission per division per person
- You are free to make submissions for multiple divisions.
- All submissions due by 11:59 PM Central time on 4/17. I’ll make my own private copy of the public sheet at that time for official scoring,
- Don’t directly copy anyone else’s predictions. I’m sure everyone is fine with you using their predictions as a starting point, but you should really strive to get at least 100 percentage points different than everyone else. I may or may not enforce this.
- If the final schedule for a division does not end up being equivalent to the preliminary schedule, that division will be ignored in the calculation of the best overall model.
So if the schedule for changes, the rankings will only be determined by the Brier scores for the other 5 divisions.
- I reserve the right to remove any submission for any reason (e.g. if I find out you are throwing matches to improve your predictions).
- I reserve the right to change or add any rules at any time, also I’m not going to be a great organizer since I’m on a busy Australia trip, so I’m counting on all of you to self-moderate.
Good luck, have fun, and I look forward to seeing what everyone comes up with.