2019 IRI Invite Prediction Contest

Ah understood, my mistake.

Thanks to all 65 people who entered! We will see who’s right soon enough.

We’ll start with some stats about the number of “yes” votes given:

Stat Value
Mean 68.45
Median 71
Min 13
Max 87
#yes < 60 18.46%
60 <= #yes < 70 21.54%
70 <= #yes < 80 40.00%
#yes >= 80 20.00%

I have decided I will publicly release the top 60 teams based on number of yes votes received. If your team is not on the list, you are welcome to DM me and I will gives you your yes percentage and rank:

Team # # Yes % Yes Rank?
330 65 100.00% 1
1114 65 100.00% 1
2767 65 100.00% 1
33 64 98.46% 4
195 64 98.46% 4
2056 64 98.46% 4
2910 64 98.46% 4
118 63 96.92% 8
2468 63 96.92% 8
2791 63 96.92% 8
217 62 95.38% 11
225 62 95.38% 11
1690 62 95.38% 11
3538 62 95.38% 11
5406 62 95.38% 11
1241 61 93.85% 16
3707 61 93.85% 16
3847 61 93.85% 16
5460 61 93.85% 16
1023 60 92.31% 20
1676 60 92.31% 20
2481 60 92.31% 20
111 59 90.77% 23
2168 59 90.77% 23
7457 59 90.77% 23
234 58 89.23% 26
319 58 89.23% 26
910 58 89.23% 26
930 58 89.23% 26
694 56 86.15% 30
868 56 86.15% 30
2826 56 86.15% 30
1684 55 84.62% 33
2337 55 84.62% 33
340 54 83.08% 35
364 54 83.08% 35
1747 54 83.08% 35
548 53 81.54% 38
1796 53 81.54% 38
3641 52 80.00% 40
3478 51 78.46% 41
5190 51 78.46% 41
48 50 76.92% 43
1923 50 76.92% 43
4028 50 76.92% 43
1718 49 75.38% 46
2200 49 75.38% 46
3357 49 75.38% 46
346 48 73.85% 49
1073 48 73.85% 49
4587 48 73.85% 49
1024 45 69.23% 52
3604 45 69.23% 52
1102 44 67.69% 54
1746 44 67.69% 54
7498 43 66.15% 56
1807 42 64.62% 57
3452 42 64.62% 57
4362 42 64.62% 57
2655 41 63.08% 60

In addition, here are the number of yes votes given and how similar each player is to the mean submission (lower means more similar):

Player # Yes Agree Score
lcraig910 73 10.170
VRoom 67 10.355
yapplejack 71 10.478
abbymarie 63 10.540
Brian_Maher 80 10.617
nomythicalbeast 80 10.647
pchild 80 10.740
badinkajink 69 10.909
ray548 72 10.924
Nate_Johansen 80 10.986
Akod 80 11.109
GearLOading 69 11.217
Golfer4646 80 11.509
AlexZ 79 11.740
jtrv 82 11.817
LukasM 75 11.832
whatever 78 12.001
Logan Byers 72 12.186
Lucero 69 12.201
cobbie 66 12.217
Stryker 75 12.417
tmpoles 77 12.632
BrennanB 82 12.678
dregli 80 13.047
Kevin Leonard 76 13.293
ek2014 70 13.478
XaulZan11 80 13.847
AcesJames 65 13.863
Tomker 74 14.186
Levi Evans 59 14.478
MeBeMe 72 14.555
DGB 81 14.632
Falcon274 68 15.570
ForeShadow00 75 15.893
CupOfCocoa 71 16.293
MrMARVINMan 62 16.832
SaltisVonWaltis 63 17.432
jacobwdean 70 17.509
Electronica1 73 17.524
Rsimpson 75 17.740
ReverseEnigma 72 17.847
Csherm 54 18.401
theultracorgi 70 18.555
Attention 84 18.647
CurtisB42 62 19.170
Tomminator5460 57 19.463
Xand10 70 19.478
Cupofjoe1 42 19.693
ChanOH7x7 87 20.693
dmorewood 56 20.893
arashri20 70 21.355
Rethum865 76 21.478
joel340 71 21.924
joblazny 51 23.124
benjierex 53 23.770
Strategos 67 24.017
Andrew_A.S 59 24.293
adityab25 74 26.770
Boohoo 73 27.678
mayamac-seid 61 28.232
Keens4028 68 34.493
rjoshi1 56 34.832
Joeojazz 53 35.309
ER1073 17 37.186
ThePrimedTNT 13 41.524
7 Likes

T-chickens at only 95%!? Oof wow people they’re the reigning world champs, and multiple world championships to their name…

2 Likes

Only 3/65 didn’t put 217 probably because they’re memeing or just overlooked them on accident. 4362 at 65% is pretty ridiculous though.

2 Likes

In my book winning a district championship is right up there with winning the championships events. Especially MSC!

^+1.

Both Detroit CMP and MSC saw the pre-Event favorites fall to alliances of less-well known teams.

Several of us watching the FiMstein finals commented that we knew Gems and Goon Squad were good, but we didn’t know they were THAT good!

I like this game because its requirement to score two different game pieces leads to formation of alliances that are better than the sums of their parts.

1 Like

Hey, I know I’m kinda late on it, but how’d you find the max Calculated Game Pieces for each team in this spreadsheet? Seems like a pretty specific thing you’d have to find and one that isn’t just on any of the general sites

It’s in Caleb’s database.

And it’s calculated the same way OPR is, but instead of running your matrix against alliance score, it’s run against game pieces scored for an alliance in the given match.

1 Like

Invites are in

Just curious, where did 5205 fall in the prediction ranking contest?

Is it too late to sign up.
I think I have the winning bracket.

2 Likes

Congrats to our winner, @Akod! And additional congratulations to @Nate_Johansen and @DannyB on 2nd and 3rd respectively! Thank you to everyone who entered!

The biggest underdog who made the cut was 5205, who received a mere 8 yes votes out of 65 entries (12.3%, rank 104). The next two least-expected invites were 4265 and 107, both with 22 yes votes (33.9%, tied for 84th).

The biggest snub as voted by entrants was Einstein alliance captain 346, who received 48 yes votes (73.9%, rank 49), followed by 1102 with 44 yes votes (67.7%, rank 54) and 3452 with 42 yes votes (64.6%, rank 57).

Here is the ranking of all the entries. As described above, the primary sort is the number of correct predictions. Since 5205 was the most incorrectly predicted team, the first tiebreaker will be whether or not 5205 was predicted correctly. The second and final tiebreaker is submission timestamp. I’ve also included # yes votes and rank by similarity to the mean submission for fun:

Submission Rank Chief Delphi Username Score Correct on 5205? Timestamp # Yes Votes Agree Score Rank
1 Akod 108 0 5/15/2019 18:21:57 80 11
2 Nate_Johansen 106 0 5/15/2019 11:26:06 80 10
3 nomythicalbeast 106 0 5/15/2019 12:34:18 80 6
4 AlexZ 105 0 5/18/2019 20:21:37 79 14
5 LukasM 105 0 5/19/2019 18:45:05 75 16
6 Brian_Maher 104 0 5/17/2019 18:32:00 80 5
7 Golfer4646 104 0 5/20/2019 5:58:26 80 13
8 VRoom 103 0 5/16/2019 2:09:18 67 2
9 lcraig910 103 0 5/21/2019 2:15:26 73 1
10 whatever 102 0 5/15/2019 15:53:08 78 17
11 Logan Byers 102 0 5/15/2019 17:33:03 72 18
12 BrennanB 102 0 5/16/2019 5:41:40 82 23
13 pchild 102 0 5/17/2019 17:15:15 80 7
14 dregli 102 0 5/19/2019 5:01:08 80 24
15 GearLOading 101 1 5/15/2019 10:34:18 69 12
16 Stryker 101 0 5/15/2019 10:19:25 75 21
17 abbymarie 101 0 5/16/2019 19:46:57 63 4
18 Kevin Leonard 100 1 5/15/2019 15:49:39 76 25
19 jtrv 100 0 5/17/2019 14:05:13 82 15
20 yapplejack 99 0 5/19/2019 23:29:39 71 3
21 Lucero 99 0 5/20/2019 21:35:35 69 19
22 ray548 98 0 5/15/2019 12:49:40 72 9
23 ek2014 98 0 5/16/2019 2:01:19 70 26
24 DGB 97 0 5/15/2019 12:40:51 81 32
25 tmpoles 97 0 5/18/2019 2:20:42 77 22
26 cobbie 96 0 5/15/2019 11:55:36 66 20
27 Falcon274 96 0 5/16/2019 0:48:58 68 33
28 MeBeMe 96 0 5/19/2019 20:22:57 72 31
29 XaulZan11 96 0 5/21/2019 1:55:57 80 27
30 badinkajink 95 0 5/15/2019 7:06:12 69 8
31 AcesJames 95 0 5/15/2019 12:46:55 65 28
32 ForeShadow00 93 0 5/15/2019 11:51:50 75 34
33 jacobwdean 92 1 5/18/2019 20:58:05 70 38
34 Tomker 92 0 5/15/2019 16:35:15 74 29
35 Tomminator5460 91 1 5/15/2019 16:58:56 57 46
36 Electronica1 91 0 5/15/2019 6:26:22 73 39
37 CupOfCocoa 91 0 5/15/2019 19:05:54 71 35
38 Levi Evans 91 0 5/16/2019 2:39:10 59 30
39 SaltisVonWaltis 89 0 5/15/2019 12:43:58 63 37
40 Rethum865 88 1 5/16/2019 0:15:59 76 52
41 MrMARVINMan 88 0 5/15/2019 12:01:20 62 36
42 Attention 88 0 5/15/2019 13:40:11 84 44
43 ReverseEnigma 88 0 5/20/2019 22:23:29 72 41
44 CurtisB42 86 0 5/15/2019 11:41:42 62 45
45 Xand10 86 0 5/15/2019 14:18:31 70 47
46 Cupofjoe1 86 0 5/18/2019 18:51:24 42 48
47 Rsimpson 85 0 5/15/2019 8:35:36 75 40
48 theultracorgi 84 0 5/15/2019 14:57:46 70 43
49 Csherm 84 0 5/15/2019 16:50:05 54 42
50 ChanOH7x7 83 0 5/15/2019 12:03:10 87 49
51 Andrew_A.S 83 0 5/15/2019 21:38:59 59 57
52 joblazny 83 0 5/16/2019 0:26:23 51 54
53 arashri20 82 0 5/15/2019 22:31:57 70 51
54 benjierex 81 1 5/15/2019 17:02:37 53 55
55 joel340 81 0 5/15/2019 10:46:53 71 53
56 dmorewood 80 0 5/20/2019 18:05:04 56 50
57 Strategos 79 0 5/18/2019 14:18:36 67 56
58 adityab25 76 0 5/15/2019 13:45:28 74 58
59 mayamac-seid 75 1 5/15/2019 22:35:18 61 60
60 Boohoo 75 0 5/19/2019 0:19:58 73 59
61 Keens4028 68 1 5/15/2019 12:44:21 68 61
62 rjoshi1 64 0 5/15/2019 18:33:46 56 62
63 Joeojazz 63 0 5/16/2019 2:52:57 53 63
64 ER1073 61 0 5/15/2019 17:49:46 17 64
65 ThePrimedTNT 57 0 5/15/2019 11:27:02 13 65
5 Likes

For anyone curious, here is @Akod’s winning submission:

Click to show Akod's predictions
Team # Akod’s Prediction Actual
11 Yes No
33 Yes Yes
48 Yes Yes
51 Yes Yes
88 No Yes
107 Yes Yes
111 Yes Yes
118 Yes Yes
135 No No
195 Yes Yes
217 Yes Yes
225 Yes Yes
226 Yes No
234 Yes Yes
302 Yes No
319 Yes Yes
330 Yes Yes
340 Yes Yes
346 Yes No
364 Yes Yes
461 Yes Yes
548 Yes Yes
694 Yes Yes
868 Yes Yes
910 Yes Yes
930 Yes Yes
1018 No No
1023 Yes Yes
1024 Yes Yes
1073 Yes Yes
1076 No No
1102 Yes No
1114 Yes Yes
1189 No No
1218 No No
1241 Yes Yes
1410 Yes Yes
1495 No No
1610 Yes No
1625 No No
1676 Yes Yes
1684 Yes Yes
1690 Yes Yes
1710 No No
1718 Yes Yes
1720 Yes Yes
1730 Yes No
1732 No No
1741 No No
1746 Yes Yes
1747 Yes Yes
1796 Yes Yes
1806 No No
1807 Yes Yes
1923 Yes Yes
2056 Yes Yes
2075 Yes Yes
2168 Yes Yes
2175 No No
2194 No No
2200 Yes Yes
2202 No No
2337 Yes Yes
2403 Yes Yes
2468 Yes Yes
2481 Yes Yes
2590 No No
2614 No Yes
2638 No No
2655 Yes Yes
2767 Yes Yes
2771 No No
2791 Yes Yes
2826 Yes Yes
2834 No No
2910 Yes Yes
2928 No No
3061 No No
3136 No No
3357 Yes Yes
3414 No No
3452 Yes No
3478 Yes Yes
3538 Yes Yes
3604 Yes Yes
3641 Yes Yes
3707 Yes Yes
3824 No No
3847 Yes Yes
3940 Yes Yes
4028 Yes Yes
4130 No No
4143 No No
4256 Yes No
4265 Yes Yes
4362 Yes Yes
4499 No No
4587 Yes Yes
4607 Yes Yes
4776 Yes Yes
4926 No No
5010 No No
5030 No No
5145 No No
5190 Yes Yes
5205 No Yes
5406 Yes Yes
5460 Yes Yes
5484 No No
5511 Yes Yes
5667 No No
5712 No No
5801 Yes Yes
5930 No No
5951 No No
6443 Yes Yes
6800 No No
6897 No No
7457 Yes Yes
7498 Yes Yes
2 Likes

Oof ok

Thanks for running the contest Brian, got into IRI and won the contest what a good day.

18 Likes

Hey thanks for being one of 22 that thought our team was going to get in

2 Likes

I guess I got my answer. I just want to thank the 8 individuals that believed in us…or just made a wild ■■■ guess.

3 Likes

Hold up. Slight mistake on my end. I forgot about the real second tiebreaker: how close you are to guessing the correct number of yesses. No changes to the top 3, which are still Akod, Nate_Johansen, and nomythicalbeast. Sorry for the confusion.

Actually correct results
Submission Rank Chief Delphi Username Score Correct on 5205? abs(pred # yes - real # yes) Timestamp # Yes Votes Agree Score Rank
1 Akod 108 0 6 5/15/2019 18:21:57 80 11
2 Nate_Johansen 106 0 6 5/15/2019 11:26:06 80 10
3 nomythicalbeast 106 0 6 5/15/2019 12:34:18 80 6
5 LukasM 105 0 1 5/19/2019 18:45:05 75 16
4 AlexZ 105 0 5 5/18/2019 20:21:37 79 14
6 Brian_Maher 104 0 6 5/17/2019 18:32:00 80 5
7 Golfer4646 104 0 6 5/20/2019 5:58:26 80 13
9 lcraig910 103 0 1 5/21/2019 2:15:26 73 1
8 VRoom 103 0 7 5/16/2019 2:09:18 67 2
11 Logan Byers 102 0 2 5/15/2019 17:33:03 72 18
10 whatever 102 0 4 5/15/2019 15:53:08 78 17
13 pchild 102 0 6 5/17/2019 17:15:15 80 7
14 dregli 102 0 6 5/19/2019 5:01:08 80 24
12 BrennanB 102 0 8 5/16/2019 5:41:40 82 23
15 GearLOading 101 1 5 5/15/2019 10:34:18 69 12
16 Stryker 101 0 1 5/15/2019 10:19:25 75 21
17 abbymarie 101 0 11 5/16/2019 19:46:57 63 4
18 Kevin Leonard 100 1 2 5/15/2019 15:49:39 76 25
19 jtrv 100 0 8 5/17/2019 14:05:13 82 15
20 yapplejack 99 0 3 5/19/2019 23:29:39 71 3
21 Lucero 99 0 5 5/20/2019 21:35:35 69 19
22 ray548 98 0 2 5/15/2019 12:49:40 72 9
23 ek2014 98 0 4 5/16/2019 2:01:19 70 26
25 tmpoles 97 0 3 5/18/2019 2:20:42 77 22
24 DGB 97 0 7 5/15/2019 12:40:51 81 32
28 MeBeMe 96 0 2 5/19/2019 20:22:57 72 31
27 Falcon274 96 0 6 5/16/2019 0:48:58 68 33
29 XaulZan11 96 0 6 5/21/2019 1:55:57 80 27
26 cobbie 96 0 8 5/15/2019 11:55:36 66 20
30 badinkajink 95 0 5 5/15/2019 7:06:12 69 8
31 AcesJames 95 0 9 5/15/2019 12:46:55 65 28
32 ForeShadow00 93 0 1 5/15/2019 11:51:50 75 34
33 jacobwdean 92 1 4 5/18/2019 20:58:05 70 38
34 Tomker 92 0 0 5/15/2019 16:35:15 74 29
35 Tomminator5460 91 1 17 5/15/2019 16:58:56 57 46
36 Electronica1 91 0 1 5/15/2019 6:26:22 73 39
37 CupOfCocoa 91 0 3 5/15/2019 19:05:54 71 35
38 Levi Evans 91 0 15 5/16/2019 2:39:10 59 30
39 SaltisVonWaltis 89 0 11 5/15/2019 12:43:58 63 37
40 Rethum865 88 1 2 5/16/2019 0:15:59 76 52
43 ReverseEnigma 88 0 2 5/20/2019 22:23:29 72 41
42 Attention 88 0 10 5/15/2019 13:40:11 84 44
41 MrMARVINMan 88 0 12 5/15/2019 12:01:20 62 36
45 Xand10 86 0 4 5/15/2019 14:18:31 70 47
44 CurtisB42 86 0 12 5/15/2019 11:41:42 62 45
46 Cupofjoe1 86 0 32 5/18/2019 18:51:24 42 48
47 Rsimpson 85 0 1 5/15/2019 8:35:36 75 40
48 theultracorgi 84 0 4 5/15/2019 14:57:46 70 43
49 Csherm 84 0 20 5/15/2019 16:50:05 54 42
50 ChanOH7x7 83 0 13 5/15/2019 12:03:10 87 49
51 Andrew_A.S 83 0 15 5/15/2019 21:38:59 59 57
52 joblazny 83 0 23 5/16/2019 0:26:23 51 54
53 arashri20 82 0 4 5/15/2019 22:31:57 70 51
54 benjierex 81 1 21 5/15/2019 17:02:37 53 55
55 joel340 81 0 3 5/15/2019 10:46:53 71 53
56 dmorewood 80 0 18 5/20/2019 18:05:04 56 50
57 Strategos 79 0 7 5/18/2019 14:18:36 67 56
58 adityab25 76 0 0 5/15/2019 13:45:28 74 58
59 mayamac-seid 75 1 13 5/15/2019 22:35:18 61 60
60 Boohoo 75 0 1 5/19/2019 0:19:58 73 59
61 Keens4028 68 1 6 5/15/2019 12:44:21 68 61
62 rjoshi1 64 0 18 5/15/2019 18:33:46 56 62
63 Joeojazz 63 0 21 5/16/2019 2:52:57 53 63
64 ER1073 61 0 57 5/15/2019 17:49:46 17 64
65 ThePrimedTNT 57 0 61 5/15/2019 11:27:02 13 65

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