2019 IRI Invite Prediction Contest

FIRST General Forum
22

Now that we’ve hit 50 entries and we’re halfway to the 11:59:59 pm May 20th deadline, here are some fun stats.

These are the teams with the most “yes” votes, who I am going to call the IRI Pop 25:

Team # % Yes Rank?
330 100.00% 1
1114 100.00% 1
2767 100.00% 1
33 98.00% 4
195 98.00% 4
2056 98.00% 4
2910 98.00% 4
118 96.00% 8
217 96.00% 8
2468 96.00% 8
2791 96.00% 8
225 94.00% 12
1241 94.00% 12
1676 94.00% 12
1690 94.00% 12
3538 94.00% 12
3707 94.00% 12
5406 94.00% 12
3847 92.00% 19
5460 92.00% 19
111 90.00% 21
1023 90.00% 21
2481 90.00% 21
7457 90.00% 21
234 88.00% 25
319 88.00% 25
930 88.00% 25
2168 88.00% 25
2337 88.00% 25

Here is a ranking of entries based on how similar they are to the mean submission (treating each yes as a 1 and a no as a 0 and taking the sum of the squared difference between each prediction and the mean prediction for each team). A lower number means it is more similar to the average prediction:

Player Agreement Score
pchild 9.962
VRoom 10.402
badinkajink 10.722
abbymarie 10.922
Brian_Maher 10.962
GearLOading 11.162
nomythicalbeast 11.162
ray548 11.282
Nate_Johansen 11.602
Akod 11.922
cobbie 11.962
jtrv 12.322
Logan Byers 12.642
whatever 12.842
Stryker 12.962
Kevin Leonard 13.362
BrennanB 13.562
AcesJames 13.602
ek2014 13.762
Levi Evans 13.962
Tomker 14.202
DGB 14.402
Falcon274 15.602
CupOfCocoa 16.042
MrMARVINMan 16.322
ForeShadow00 16.602
Electronica1 16.882
Rsimpson 17.362
Csherm 17.882
SaltisVonWaltis 17.922
theultracorgi 18.282
Attention 18.642
CurtisB42 18.882
Tomminator5460 19.042
Xand10 19.802
ChanOH7x7 20.242
joel340 21.162
Rethum865 21.162
arashri20 21.642
joblazny 22.042
benjierex 23.082
Andrew_A.S 24.122
adityab25 26.282
mayamac-seid 27.762
rjoshi1 33.882
Keens4028 34.202
Joeojazz 34.402
ER1073 36.042
ThePrimedTNT 40.522

Feel free to share predictions, any surprises or snubs you see in the IRI Pop 25, or any fun hot takes you have.

1 Like
23

hot take: I win the contest

8 Likes
24

More than 1 in 10 submissions having 930 being denied is a real head scratcher. 3707 at 94% too. What sort of criteria are these people using?

4 Likes
25

45 will just help out. They’ll leave the robot at home.

1 Like
26

I had the same reaction until I considered the sample size. With only 50 submissions, that means only 6 people rejected 930 and only 3 rejected 3707. That can easily be chalked up to a combination of joke submissions, people who don’t pay attention at all, and some really esoteric criteria.

4 Likes
27

Can we have a current list of all teams percentages? Just wondering for all the teams including mine

28

I saw 930 in person at Wisconsin. That robot is legit! It would be a travesty if they didn’t get in!

29

100% agree. They were the best scorer at midwest and I was honestly surprised they didnt get a banner until champs.

30

Wingus ad Dingus and their alliance caught them off guard in Wisconsin. I REALLY hope 7498 gets in! I was hoping they would apply when it was time to apply for the event and now I want to see them play again!

1 Like
31

When you get an automatic invite and you aren’t in the Pop 25

12 Likes
32

Merry Christmas!
I actually wonder when was the last time a pre qualified team declined the IRI invitation.

33

Considering none of the teams who get automatic invites from winning last year are at 100%, there are definitely a few submissions that meet that criteria

2 Likes
34

I can think of a few who declined the auto invite, mostly due to poor performance that year. It’s definitely not unheard of.

35

I suppose the rules aren’t quite clear, my interpretation was we had to guess who would be invited. Seeing that all 4 teams from the 2018 winning alliance applied it was obvious to me that they would be invited. However I see how you could read it as who gets invited and accepts. @Brian_Maher seems to be using invited and accepted interchangeably in his post which makes it a bit confusing

1 Like
36

If they were declining the invite, I don’t think they would apply, which is essentially an RSVP from auto-invite teams.

My apologies for not being clearer. My wording was because “being invited to IRI” == “application to IRI being accepted”. If a team is on the IRI invite list posted on Wednesday, they are counted as being invited. If they are not, they are not.

37

Hey, Richard! Thanks for this top 47 ELO graphic.

Do you mind posting the other applicant teams in the same manner? At least, the next 50 would be useful to see.

Andy B.

38

Sure, Andy. However, I’m not convinced that Elo is as useful in the next range, 1600-1700.

image
image.png1329×279 27.7 KB

1 Like
39

Nice! Not last…

40

I haven’t formally investigated, but my guess is that 2019 End of Season Elo will be a better predictor of success than 2020 Start of Season Elo. 2020 SOS is 30% based on 2018 performance, and 70% based on 2019 performance.

It probably depends on the specific offseason as well, it’s possible that for early offseasons 2019 EOS is better and later offseasons 2020 SOS is better.

1 Like
41

Results often differ from what a spreadsheet “dictates”. For our combined sake, happy they did in Chicago. :slightly_smiling_face: 2830 applied effective disruptive force. Glad our scouters valued them highly and put them to good use!

No-one has to worry about 930. They upgraded their already-potent robot with the HAB 3 climber, and their results in Detroit cannot be questioned.

Results matter. Look at 1073. Would the math have projected them to be an IRI team had they not been chosen for the elims and taken advantage of that opportunity in grand fashion as part of an effective alliance and strategy? Results - real-world intangibles - can and sometimes should carry more weight than math.

Some things aren’t completely accounted for in a spreadsheet. Like fighting through various and sundry qualifying blar and using scouting, drafting, strategy, and teamwork to enjoy positive results in the playoffs when you’re not at the top of the heap seed-wise. :wink:

1 Like