2020 MN State Championship

With the competition season underway, I wanted to start this thread to help MN teams keep with how the bubble area looks for state. I am not affiliated with the organizers and any commentary I produce is not official. I am merely someone speculating on how the qualification will turn out.

I believe the only change from last year’s methodology is 1816’s Chairman’s win at Champs in 2019 will give them an invite to this year’s state championship. Otherwise it’s still 36 teams and points remain the same. That would imply the usual bubble area of 31 points is still in play. For the past few years teams with 32 or more points have all made it, teams with 30 or less have not. Teams with 31 are mixed bag of whether they make it or not.

The official standings after week 1 can be found at:

Great Northern created a gap in the 31 point area - with 3206 at 33 jumping to 7028 at 27. So no one is really on the bubble at this time. Unless this year plays out differently than previous years - 3293, 5172, 2883, 3082, 3130, 2450, 4198, 3750, 4607, 5913, 4539, and 3206 will be joining 1816 at state.

Note to self: Update the calculation program to automatically stick 1816 at the top for this year only. Seems I forgot all about that (And somehow Mark didn’t notice it when he reviewed the results before posting yesterday!).

Since I got asked about 10 times up in Duluth, just eyeballing it…

Lake Superior didn’t have any upsets in the QFs.
So the first 4 alliance captains and 1st picks should be in unless they are from Iowa.
The 2nd picks of the finalist alliances should be in as well (also covers Chairmans).
You have a rookie all star that was 18th in quals … that is going to be close.
4009 and 2169 as QFs teams with awards are in the bubble area.

Northern Lights did have a QF upset.
The 4 captains and 1st picks from the SF should be in unless they are from Wisconsin.
The 2nd picks in the finals should also be comfortably in.
4778 as the 3 alliance captain and 4 overall seed should be in.
4624 as a QF team with an award will be in the bubble area.
With no RAS there isn’t a rookie in play.

I didn’t run the math so let’s wait and see for the official standings.

Unofficial Week 2 Rankings
Rank Team # Points
1 1816 73** Hall of Fame
2 2526 33* Chairmans
3 2491 73
4 2052 67
5 2987 63
6 3293 58
7 5172 58
8 5348 55
9 4728 51
10 7797 51
11 4182 47
12 6022 47
13 2883 46
14 3082 43
15 5991 43
16 5464 42
17 2502 42
18 3130 42
19 5690 40
20 2450 40
21 2509 39
22 3630 39
23 4198 38
24 2846 37
25 3750 37
26 4607 36
27 5913 35
28 4778 34
29 4539 34
30 8416 34
31 3206 33
32 4741 32
33 7530 31
34 6217 31
35 4226 31
36 4624 31
37 4009 31
38 4511 30
39 3267 30
40 7038 29
41 2861 28
42 7041 27
43 7028 27
44 3007 27
45 6045 27
46 5653 26
47 3740 26
48 7858 26
49 2169 25
50 3102 25
51 8298 24
52 8372 24
53 2264 23
54 2847 21
55 5434 21
56 7068 21
57 2531 20
58 8422 20
59 5638 19
60 4230 19
61 4623 19
62 5658 18
63 7677 18
64 7864 18
65 3297 17
66 5275 17
67 3691 16
68 4663 16
69 2175 16
70 4656 16
71 2239 16
72 4845 16
73 4506 15
74 2823 15
75 6147 15
76 3313 15
77 3298 15
78 2499 15
79 3058 15
80 2129 15
81 2549 14
82 2227 14
83 3926 14
84 6160 14
85 3122 14
86 6453 14
87 2177 14
88 3275 13
89 5232 13
90 3300 13
91 2181 13
92 4207 13
93 6146 13
94 7311 13
95 4238 13
96 3277 12
97 3299 12
98 4229 12
99 4859 12
100 4648 12
101 3134 12
102 4239 11
103 7257 11
104 6132 11
105 2501 11
106 2511 11
107 2503 11
108 3291 11
109 7893 11
110 2500 11
111 2654 10
112 7019 10
113 4360 10
114 3755 10
115 6047 10
116 3042 9
117 6707 9
118 5720 9
119 3054 9
120 4703 9
121 5998 9
122 4181 9
123 2512 9
124 2472 8
125 3294 8
126 5929 8
127 6758 8
128 5253 8
129 5999 8
130 3871 7
131 3212 7
132 6628 7
133 6175 7
134 5542 7
135 2508 7
136 3100 7
137 4536 6
138 4480 6
139 2989 6
140 4166 5
141 5290 5
142 6044 5
143 5143 4
144 3754 4
145 2977 4
146 4217 3
147 3026 3

It’s interesting how quick we got to 32 teams with 32 or more points. (unofficially)
The 31 line might not hold although it is typical that the majority of teams qualify at Duluth and GNR. Last year only 6 teams qualified after those 3 events (3 from Iowa, 1 from North Star, and 2 from 10K - although note that 1 of those 2 was 2500 winning Chairman’s at their second event ). Last year there were 81 teams yet to play and this year there are 75 teams yet to play. Although we have yet to see what no bag does for teams that have their first play later in the season.

The break down looking ahead:
Heartland is the first play for 2 teams
Iowa is the first play for 6 teams
North Star is the first play for 28 teams
10K Lakes (PbtMF) is the first play for 35 teams
7 Rivers is the first play for 4 teams