With the competition season underway, I wanted to start this thread to help MN teams keep with how the bubble area looks for state. I am not affiliated with the organizers and any commentary I produce is not official. I am merely someone speculating on how the qualification will turn out.
I believe the only change from last year’s methodology is 1816’s Chairman’s win at Champs in 2019 will give them an invite to this year’s state championship. Otherwise it’s still 36 teams and points remain the same. That would imply the usual bubble area of 31 points is still in play. For the past few years teams with 32 or more points have all made it, teams with 30 or less have not. Teams with 31 are mixed bag of whether they make it or not.
The official standings after week 1 can be found at:
Great Northern created a gap in the 31 point area - with 3206 at 33 jumping to 7028 at 27. So no one is really on the bubble at this time. Unless this year plays out differently than previous years - 3293, 5172, 2883, 3082, 3130, 2450, 4198, 3750, 4607, 5913, 4539, and 3206 will be joining 1816 at state.
Note to self: Update the calculation program to automatically stick 1816 at the top for this year only. Seems I forgot all about that (And somehow Mark didn’t notice it when he reviewed the results before posting yesterday!).
Since I got asked about 10 times up in Duluth, just eyeballing it…
Lake Superior didn’t have any upsets in the QFs.
So the first 4 alliance captains and 1st picks should be in unless they are from Iowa.
The 2nd picks of the finalist alliances should be in as well (also covers Chairmans).
You have a rookie all star that was 18th in quals … that is going to be close.
4009 and 2169 as QFs teams with awards are in the bubble area.
Northern Lights did have a QF upset.
The 4 captains and 1st picks from the SF should be in unless they are from Wisconsin.
The 2nd picks in the finals should also be comfortably in.
4778 as the 3 alliance captain and 4 overall seed should be in.
4624 as a QF team with an award will be in the bubble area.
With no RAS there isn’t a rookie in play.
I didn’t run the math so let’s wait and see for the official standings.
It’s interesting how quick we got to 32 teams with 32 or more points. (unofficially)
The 31 line might not hold although it is typical that the majority of teams qualify at Duluth and GNR. Last year only 6 teams qualified after those 3 events (3 from Iowa, 1 from North Star, and 2 from 10K - although note that 1 of those 2 was 2500 winning Chairman’s at their second event ). Last year there were 81 teams yet to play and this year there are 75 teams yet to play. Although we have yet to see what no bag does for teams that have their first play later in the season.
The break down looking ahead:
Heartland is the first play for 2 teams
Iowa is the first play for 6 teams
North Star is the first play for 28 teams
10K Lakes (PbtMF) is the first play for 35 teams
7 Rivers is the first play for 4 teams
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