The is the official thread for the $25 Detroit Match Prediction Contest. Here is his Caleb Sykes’s contest for the Houston half-champs, which this is mostly a copy of. Just like the previous contest, anyone can submit their predictions for whichever division(s) they choose to, using the preliminary schedule which was released by FIRST a few days ago. The best overall model will receive a $25 Amazon gift code. I am not able to offer $90 from AndyMark, unfortunately, but I received this card a few days ago and I’m fine parting with it. Rules etc are below:
- Go to the link for the appropriate division below. Thank you to wjordan for the CSV schedules:
Archimedes edit-seems like the CSV for Archimedes has 3 missing matches. I will manually add those in, please wait until I finish. edit2-fixed. Please let me know if anything else looks wrong.
Wes, if you’re reading this, it looks like your script missed the last match on the first three pages. - Carson
- Click on File>Make a Copy…
- Rename the copied spreadsheet to be “<Name/Username>'s <Division> Predictions”. For example, “Parthiv’s Curie Predictions”
- Edit the values in the last column as you see fit.
- In the top right corner, click SHARE>Get Shareable Link
- Paste the link into a response to this thread. If you are submitting for multiple divisions, please post the link to a Google Drive folder with all of your spreadsheets inside.
- In the response, please include a short description of how you arrived at your answers. If you used the same model as you did in Caleb’s contest, a link to your response there should suffice.
- I will maintain a spreadsheet with all submissions here.
- I will also use Brier scores to determine the best model. Your prediction will be subtracted from the actual result (red win = 0, blue win = 1, tie = 0.5), and then squared. So if you predict a 85% blue win probability, and blue does win, then your Brier score for that match would be 0.15^2 = 0.0225.
- The model with the lowest average Brier score, throughout all matches from all eligible divisions (see the 5th bullet point in “Other rules”), will win the contest.
- You are welcome to not enter all divisions, but your predictions for all divisions that you do not enter will be considered to be 0.5 (tie) for every match, for the sake of finding the best overall model.
- Winners must send me a PM on Chief Delphi within 1 week of the end of Detroit half-champs to claim the Amazon gift code. Let’s go with 11:59PM on Saturday, May 5.
Other Rules (mostly plagiarized from Caleb, changes bolded):
- Limit one submission per division per person
- You are free to make submissions for multiple divisions.
- I will make copies of your predictions when you publish them, so don’t share the link until your predictions are finalized. I’m not going to go back and re-copy anything if you make changes.
- Don’t directly copy anyone else’s predictions. I’m sure everyone is fine with you using their predictions as a starting point, but you should really strive to get at least 100 percentage points different than everyone else. I may or may not enforce this.
- If the final schedule for a division does not end up being equivalent to the preliminary schedule, that division will be ignored in the calculation of the best overall model.
So if the schedule for Daly changes, the rankings will only be determined by the Brier scores for the other 5 divisions. - Submission deadline is **Wednesday 4/25 12:00PM (noon) Central Time. I realize that this is not a lot of time, so I will accept late submissions, but please let me know before 4/25 @noon Central Time so that I know to stay on the lookout for your submission. **
- I reserve the right to remove any submission for any reason (e.g. if I find out you are throwing matches to improve your predictions).
- I reserve the right to change or add any rules at any time.
Good luck, have fun, and I look forward to seeing what everyone comes up with.