40+% Growth Rate - How Long?

FIRST General Forum
1

Posted by Raul at 12/23/2000 7:02 PM EST

Engineer on team #111, Wildstang, from Rolling Meadows & Wheeling HS and Motorola.

Since 1993, the number of teams participating has more than doubled every 2 years. When will we reach critical mass? How long could this go on?

I hope it does until every high school in the US is participating (and at least one from each of the United Nations).

Just think about it; at this rate we will have over 10,000 teams by 2010!

Can the existing FIRST organization continue to handle this with that many teams?

Can we really have a National competition with more than 5000 teams? Surely, there would have to be some form of regional playoffs or rankings to limit the number of teams.

How would they handle the kickoff? 20,000 people at one kickoff (not to mention Dean’s house)? They would also have to have regional kickoffs or something like that.

How about the regionals? How many would there have to be? Will there ever be a regional in another country - there has to be if enough foreign teams join right?

How about media coverage? Do you think there could be 10,000 teams involved without FIRST become a household name? How long before we have professional FIRST competitions. At what point will FIRST be considered the elite high school event that everyone wants to be in (isn’t that Dean’s dream?)?

If you think 10,000 is no big deal, then how about 64,000 teams by 2015?

I would love to see FIRST’s roadmap for the next ten or more years.

Raul

2

Posted by nick237 at 12/23/2000 10:44 PM EST

Engineer on team #237, sie h2o bots, from Watertown high school ct and sieman co.

In Reply to: 40+% Growth Rate - How Long?
Posted by Raul on 12/23/2000 7:02 PM EST:

There is no such thing as too big.
What FIRST could do is each state would have a regional and the top three teams would represent their state in the nationals. Each three teams would be the alliance against another state alliance. every alliance would have to be represented by 30 members or more of every team that entered a robot in their regional.
Foreign contries would do the same.
The USA alone would represent 50 states x 3 teams = 150 robots. 150 teams plus any foreign teams would make for a great but manageble event.
Or their could be an event like the 14 days of the Olympics or the 21 days of the World Cup Soccer.
The last one sounds good to me, 2 to 3 weeks in Florida wow.
What would your choice be?
Nick 237

: Since 1993, the number of teams participating has more than doubled every 2 years. When will we reach critical mass? How long could this go on?

: I hope it does until every high school in the US is participating (and at least one from each of the United Nations).

: Just think about it; at this rate we will have over 10,000 teams by 2010!

: Can the existing FIRST organization continue to handle this with that many teams?

: Can we really have a National competition with more than 5000 teams? Surely, there would have to be some form of regional playoffs or rankings to limit the number of teams.

: How would they handle the kickoff? 20,000 people at one kickoff (not to mention Dean’s house)? They would also have to have regional kickoffs or something like that.

: How about the regionals? How many would there have to be? Will there ever be a regional in another country - there has to be if enough foreign teams join right?

: How about media coverage? Do you think there could be 10,000 teams involved without FIRST become a household name? How long before we have professional FIRST competitions. At what point will FIRST be considered the elite high school event that everyone wants to be in (isn’t that Dean’s dream?)?

: If you think 10,000 is no big deal, then how about 64,000 teams by 2015?

: I would love to see FIRST’s roadmap for the next ten or more years.

: Raul

3

Posted by Joe Johnson at 12/24/2000 2:36 PM EST

Engineer on team #47, Chief Delphi, from Pontiac Central High School and Delphi Automotive Systems.

In Reply to: Re: 40+% Growth Rate - How Long?
Posted by nick237 on 12/23/2000 10:44 PM EST:

Both Raul and Nick make two important points.

#1 we can’t keep the current format forever

#2 with the right kind of changes, almost any number
can be handles.

My view is that we are in a very dangerous race.

I don’t think many folks realize just how much FIRST is
balanced on a knife edge. They have been running down
that sharp blade for at least the 5 years I have been
involved and in my view they can only keep it up one or
2 more years.

The basic problem is this: How can they manage %40
annual compound growth without imploding?

FIRST has done a great job managing the problem so far
but I really believe that the jig will be up in 2003.

That is the year that either FIRST will have landed the
big time advertiser bucks or the days of %40 growth are
over (maybe the days of ANY growth will be over by then
without some major changes or new funding sources).

Another major wild card in this whole dangerous game
they are playing is the economy, stupid. A tanked
economy may even mean that 2002 will have fewer teams
than 2001, depending on the general perception of the
depth of the crisis.

So… I have believed for a long time that FIRST is in
a very serious race, the race to get big enough to get
enough eyeballs to get access to the pot of goals that
is advertising in America. They have to get big
enough, fast enough, before they implode from insane
growth or to explode from the effects of a downturn in
the economy.

It is a serious game. One that Dean and Co. are well
aware of. The stakes are very high.

You know which side I am cheering for.

Joe J.

4

Posted by Jessica Boucher at 12/24/2000 4:36 PM EST

Student on team #237, Sie-H2O-Bots, from Watertown High School and Eastern Awning Systems & The Siemon Company.

In Reply to: Running full speed down a knife edge
Posted by Joe Johnson on 12/24/2000 2:36 PM EST:

Wow. Some very solemn thinking on what is supposed to be a very joyful holiday.

Personally, I have always compared my experience with FIRST to my exprience in theatre. Sure, I have only done high school shows, but thats besides the point.

FIRST’s Kick-Off has always been in my mind similar to auditions, the ‘6 weeks’ is rehearsal time, and the competitions are the performances. Other aspects fit in as well: the conversation & electricity of being in the pits after a match is equally comparable to the ensemble pouring backstage after a huge number; the event is verbally picked apart, people are rushing around to make alterations, fix makeup/parts, change costumes/replace the pickup mechanism, practicing dance steps/making sure the electronic connections are working, etc.

On a larger scale, FIRST is also comperable to a Broadway show…it can go on for years and years, thousands of performances, numerous casting changes, and then, when the show can’t pull together at least a half house each night, it closes.

Now, dont get me wrong, I don’t see FIRST ‘closing’ for a long time, but I do have to agree with Joe that the economy is slowing and people/companies are getting scared. I see it on my team, I see it on other teams. But that doesn’t really mean a bad thing. Is quantity the issue here, or is quality? I would much rather have a smaller growth rate married with hearty, solid teams that really exemplify FIRST and will slowly build us up again as an organization instead a lot of teams that will die out in the next season due to the economy.

Maybe a smaller growth rate will bring back the nostalgia of the early days, with the smaller regionals, the smaller nationals, the closeness & electricity that my seasoned FIRST colleagues rave so much about.

I don’t see FIRST as an organization dying out or imploding, but rather coasting on the ebb & flow of the tide.

Because, just as in Broadway shows, there is always a revival on the horizon.

-Jessica B, #237

Have a lovely holiday, my colleagues.

5

Posted by Raul at 1/3/2001 7:46 PM EST

Engineer on team #111, Wildstang, from Rolling Meadows & Wheeling HS and Motorola.

In Reply to: Running full speed down a knife edge
Posted by Joe Johnson on 12/24/2000 2:36 PM EST:

I agree with Joe’s assessment. We need some kind of a breakthrough soon.

I think FIRST needs a powerful celebrity to endorse it - maybe Oprah attends a regional and starts talking about it. OR Bill Gates decides to sponsor a bunch of teams and becomes an evangelist to help Dean with his dream.

Raul

6

Posted by Matt Leese at 1/2/2001 8:20 PM EST

Other on team #73 from Edison Technical HS and Alstom & Rochester Institute of Technology.

In Reply to: 40+% Growth Rate - How Long?
Posted by Raul on 12/23/2000 7:02 PM EST:

Eventhough I’m replying to this message way after it was originally posted, there’s one thing in my mind that will always limit the critical mass size of FIRST. It has nothing to do with number of high schools or size of nationals or whatnot. It all comes down to the fact that after awhile we’re going to exhaust all the possible corporate sponsors out there. We already see some big one’s dropping out (DiamlerChyrsler comes to mind) but eventually we’ll not have anymore to go for. That’s why I don’t think that the glorious goals of some people here will ever be accomplished. Maybe I’m just a bit too pessimistic…

Matt who finally realizes how hard it is to get a sponsor and still managed to do it

7

Posted by Joe Johnson at 1/2/2001 9:26 PM EST

Engineer on team #47, Chief Delphi, from Pontiac Central High School and Delphi Automotive Systems.

In Reply to: We’ll run out of corporate sponsors first…
Posted by Matt Leese on 1/2/2001 8:20 PM EST:

I do not think that this is going to be a problem.

While it is true that there are only 500 ‘Fortune 500’
companies, how many Beatty Machine & Mfg’s are there?

Within 20 miles of my home, I suppose there are 500
tool and die shops as big or bigger than Beatty.

Given the right motivation, small companies can do
great things in FIRST.

There are serious problems ahead that FIRST must
address, but running out of companies capable of
supporting a FIRST team if they choose does not seem to
me to be amoung them.

Joe J.

8