Announcing the Houston Match Prediction Contest! Anyone who wants to can submit their predictions for the matches in any Houston Championships division using the preliminary schedule. For each division, whoever makes the predictions that turn out to be the best will receive a $15 AndyMark gift certificate from me. This means I could be giving out up to $90! I have a job now though so I should be fine. If you are not part of a team, I can alternatively send this gift card to a team of your choice. Rules and regulations below.
How to Submit:
- Go to the link below for the division for which you want to make predictions:
- Click on File->Make a Copy…
- Change the name of the file to be “[Your Name or Username]’s [Event] Predictions” (e.g. “Bob’s Turing Predictions”)
- Edit the values in the last column as you see fit
- In the top-right corner click SHARE -> Get shareable link
- Paste the link into a post on this thread.
- Limit one submission per division per person, but I get 3 entries (My Elo, max OPR, and Elo/OPR average). Sorry if you think that’s not fair, make your own contest if you want multiple entries.
- When comparing submissions to my predictions, your submission must have a minimum of 100 percentage points of difference cumulative over all matches. This applies to all 3 of my submissions. That is, you can’t submit a copy of one of my prediction sets and change one match’s predictions by a single percentage point. You should have no problem with this requirement if you start from scratch on your predictions. This is more for anyone who just wants to modify my existing predictions. Since each division has over 100 matches, a simple way to achieve this difference would be to change all of my match predictions up or down by one percentage point. Another way would be to find at least 10 matches and change the predictions by at least 10 percentage points.
- You are free to make submissions for multiple divisions.
- I will make copies of your predictions when you publish them, so don’t share the link until your predictions are finalized. I’m not going to go back and re-copy anything if you make changes.
- Don’t directly copy anyone else’s predictions. I’m sure everyone is fine with you using their predictions as a starting point, but you should really strive to get at least 100 percentage points different than everyone else. I may or may not enforce this.
- If the final schedule for a division does not end up being equivalent to the preliminary schedule, assume the contest to be cancelled for that division unless I say otherwise.
- Submission deadline is Tuesday 4/17 11:59PM central time.
- I reserve the right to remove any submission for any reason (e.g. if I find out you are throwing matches to improve your predictions).
- I reserve the right to change or add any rules at any time.
Determining the Best Predictions:
As people submit, I will maintain a master book of all submissions here. When Houston matches are finished, I will compare these predictions to the results of the Houston matches. The prediction accuracy metric I will use are Brier scores, or mean-squared errors. Essentially, your prediction will be subtracted from the actual match result (red win = 0, blue win = 1, tie = 0.5), and this difference will be squared. Your total Brier score is the average of these values for all matches. I like Brier scores because they punish both over-confident and under-confident predictions.
There is no second place, if no one beats my predictions for a division, I save $15.
Gift Certificate Information:
I will post the winner for each division on this thread at some point within 1 week of Houston Championships concluding. After my post, the winners have 1 week to pm me their contact information and we will coordinate delivery of the AndyMark giftcard at that point. If you do not communicate with me within this timeframe, you will forfeit your prize.
Why are You Doing This?
Mostly for fun. However, if you wouldn’t mind posting your reasoning along with your predictions I would be very interested. If the reasoning is “insider information” that’s cool, but I’m particularly interested in which (if any) universal metrics you are basing your predictions on. To the best of my knowledge, my Elo and OPR average is the best general predictive model out there, but I would genuinely love to be proven wrong. I guess I’m also trying to be a discount Nate Silver and/or Dr. Joe, so there’s that.
If you have any questions, please ask before submitting. Also, make sure to check the entire thread in case I have posted updates or clarifications. Let’s see who can make the best predictions!