A Case for the South East District (and Heatmaps!)

Sorry Florida.

An outline for FIRST South East (FSE)

In light of all of the heatmap threads flying about, I wanted to do some analysis of the states in the US South East, a collection of states that can be a bit sparse with teams but when combined form a reasonable district.

Considerations

There are a few things I want to knock out from the top:

  • When laying out this district, I decided to exclude Kentucky. There are currently no regionals in the state, and most of the teams are in the northern half. In my opinion, I think it makes more sense to pair them with northern states like Indiana, Illinois, or Ohio
  • Florida is a beast of its own. With 70~ teams, they would almost double the size of the proposed SE district. Moreover, they’re not really geographically co-located. To me, it would make more sense to spin them off as their own single-state district or loop them in to PCH. I do recognize that if they stay as in regionals when FSE forms, their nearest regional is in Cincinnati.
  • All data was scraped by hand, so please let me know if I missed anything!
  • If cities spanned multiple counties, I took the first county alphabetically. Go figure.

FSE District Map

FSE Current Team Apportionment

Full data here.

As of 2024, the district has 99 teams:

State Total Teams Rookie Teams Revived Veteran Teams
Alabama 14 2 1
Arkansas 13 3 1
Louisiana 32 9 0
Mississippi 15 6 0
Tennessee 24 2 1

I don’t have the skills to accurately find how many teams we’ve lost since 2023. If someone pulls that data, I’ll add it to the table!

Highlights

  • The most densely populated county for FRC are Knox county, TN (9 teams, home of the Smoky Mountain Regional)
  • The New Orleans greater area (St. Tammany and Orleans parishes) hold another 9 teams and are co-located to the Bayou regional in neighboring Jefferson parish
  • Arkansas is the most sparsely populated state, with only one county having 2 teams (3937 and 9067 in White County, home of the Arkansas Regional)
  • Mississippi is the most spread-out state, with the only multi-team county being within striking distance of NOLA. Interestingly, the Magnolia Regional didn’t have a team in its county until this year.
  • Tennessee holds the largest city in the district (Nashville), but Nashville only has one team (that’s us, 7525!) with one neighboring team in Williamson county. Otherwise, teams are largely concentrated in the northeast and southwest corners (Knoxville and Memphis respectively)

Current Regional Events

2024 Regional State City Week Capacity
Rocket City Alabama Huntsville 6 52
Arkansas Arkansas Searcy 2 29
Bayou Louisiana Kenner 6 58
Magnolia Mississippi Laurel 3 46
Smoky Mountain Tennessee Knoxville 2 34

Highlights

  • We’ve currently got 1 event per state, which is great!
  • The maximum distance between these events is Bayou to Smoky, which is just under 9 hours
  • Most teams should be able to get to 2 events within 6 or so hours (I have no math to back this up, sorry)
  • Northern Arkansas teams currently have the furthest drive for a second event
  • Rocket City is one of the largest events, is centrally located, and already slotted for week 6. This makes it a great candidate for DCMP.

Additional Events

With 99 teams, 6 districts would be the sweet spot for everyone to get two good plays. Outside of a situation where a venue hosts two back-to-back events, the contenders I’ve identified for additional districts are:

  • Memphis, TN - Memphis was actually slotted to host an event in 2020, which didn’t happen because of the pandemmy. Shelby county has 4 teams this year, including a rookie and a revived veteran. This makes it one of the most populated counties in FSE. However, Memphis is pretty close the the Arkansas regional, just under 2 hours away. This means it’s not perfectly located, but not too bad.
  • Nashville, TN - Nashville is the largest city in FSE and has multiple venue options. However, the team density in the area is very low, and Nashville is only 2 hours from the Rocket City Regional.
  • Montgomery, AL - Montgomery is tied for the most populated county in Alabama (with Huntsville). It is about 3 hours from Huntsville, and would be a great option from MS and southern AL teams.
  • Baton Rouge, LA - Baton Rouge is only an hour-ish from NOLA, but would help service the most densely populated area in FSE and give another district event to teams in general. There may be venue issues though, because LSU is often busy with March Madness.

There you have it! It’s been fun to explore the data here (thanks to @pandomains for bouncing ideas with me). I think that this is a reasonable geographic bound for a new district, but adding two new events to be comfortably viable is certainly a big ask. I’d love to hear other peoples’ thoughts :slight_smile:

P.S. I tried to draw “sensical” districts for every state in the union. It really falls apart in some places, but here you go…

All the Districts

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image

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I think mega districts are starting to miss the point…

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I’d love to get to a point where this area wouldn’t need such a large district. As it stands though, these states would need to double, triple, or quadruple their team density to get to where Indiana was when they switched to the district model. I don’t see that happening anytime soon, so was taking steps to see what a reasonable outline would look like when combining them. Also, this mega district (234k sq. mi) is still smaller than Texas (261k sq. mi) not even including New Mexico. This year, I’m already driving 5 hours for my first event and 8 hours for my second.

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IMO, just being in the district model at all is already a vast improvement over the current situation of the regional model. As Bryce said, the district can certainly be split up as more teams/events are added.

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FiT + OK for 2024 would look something like this.
Orange Stars = Districts or Regionals
Green, Yellow Stars = Worlds + FiT states

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Despite being excluded from the district (come on man you can’t call it South East and include Arkansas and not Florida. That would be like if NE meant North East and they excluded Maine but included New York lol) I can take a stab at the history of the region and spelling Louisiana correctly.

We will start with 2019 because it is the last full season before Covid

State Total Teams Rookie Teams
Alabama 14 3
Arkansas 39 17
Louisiana 39 8
Mississippi 12 2
Tennessee 33 2

So the region was at 135 teams during the last full season before the pandemic, for a net loss of 36 teams. Arkansas is the one who seems to have been hit the hardest but we will see if the holds up in our next year

2020

State Total Teams Rookie Teams
Alabama 15 1
Arkansas 27 0
Louisiana 37 3
Mississippi 13 1
Tennessee 33 2

For 2020 there were 125 expected teams. I would be really curious about what happened with Arkansas to have a team explosion in 2019, have almost none of them survive then have 0 new teams for 2020. With everyone else staying within a 2 team +/- Arkansas is the extreme outlier in the region.

2022

State Total Teams Rookie Teams
Alabama 14 6
Arkansas 13 0
Louisiana 27 2
Mississippi 6 0
Tennessee 26 1

We are at 86 teams or 68% of expected 2020 size. To me this tracks pretty closely with the average of most regions when we came back from the pandemic. Alabama was helped a lot by a strong rookie class, however once again I am left staring at Arkansas to try to figure out what happened because they are 1/3 the size they were in 2019.

2023

State Total Teams Rookie Teams Revived
Alabama 12 0 0
Arkansas 11 1 0
Louisiana 27 3 0
Mississippi 10 0 4
Tennessee 22 1 0

So for 2023 it looks like 82 teams so a net loss of 43 teams since the Pandemic. I think I got the revived teams right but I had to check that by hand so I could be wrong.

After looking at these numbers I am curious, what are the numbers in 2024 for how many events teams in these states are registered for? I am worried that for the majority of teams a switch to districts would not be beneficial because of the lack of team density.

For example since I have the Florida numbers 46* of Florida’s 80 teams are attending at least 2 regionals with 8 of them attending 3 and 1 attending 4. This means that the majority of teams in the state already have at least 1 travel event in their budgets, this is compounded by the fact that 20* of the single event event teams are travel event teams with 10 of them actually either opting out of a nontravel event or guaranteed a nontravel district event if transitioned (Tampa area teams)
*8104 is a single event team but are rookies of 59. These rookies travel to the events 59 does so while I did count them as a single event team they are basically already a multievent team in terms of travel budget.

So the majority of Florida would most likely be budget positive or at least neutral thanks to the reduced registration costs for multievent teams, and the reduced hotel costs (2/3 nights down to 1/2 nights).

I am not sure the above is true for this proposed district especially for teams in Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas who would have quite the trip to the proposed District Champs location in Huntsville

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Bryce, great job! Hoping to catch up with you at Magnolia and Bayou!
Just a few nits and notes (way more notes than nits, though the nits come first):

FSE District Map

If I didn’t already know, I couldn’t distinguish between existing regional and future events, and would have missed Smoky Mountains. Could you do it with one of them switched to bend sinister (hatching going up to the right as viewed), and maybe with white hatching on Knox County?

Jefferson Parish is also part of Greater New Orleans. I grew up in Jefferson and live in St. Tammany, and I felt a lot more part of New Orleans then than now.
Also, Pulaski County Arkansas (Little Rock) hosted the Arkansas (then Rock City) regional for many years and currently has one team. An inexpensive venue I’m sure, but at least it has a concrete floor [more next note].

I’m confident that Laurel was chosen for the inexpensive venue. A great event with good country food, but an actual paved floor under the carpet would be nice. Magnolia Center has a dirt floor which is great for rodeos and tractor pulls, not not so much FRC.
Also, Nashville is a perfect place for a new event. Having nearby events (with a bit of personal sales) seems to be the best way of promoting team formation, apart from giving them actual money.

Not making a case for New Orleans as home of DCMP because it’s so off center, but Bayou was a huge event (58-60 most years) until Magnolia started last year. It was spooky having the pits being navigable without turning sideways every five steps last year.
Added: If FSE happens, Greater New Orleans will soon need two or more events, and Pontchartrain Center will be too expensive.

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Going to propose you rename FIRST EMPTY to FIRST FINEST FORESTLAND (to be abbreviated as FI FI FO)…
Screen Shot 2023-12-31 at 10.48.03 AM

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Absolutely agree. This is peak summer CD

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I was going to suggest FIRST Mountains, myself. Pesky Continental Divide.

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What about FIRST Empty, FInest FOrests, Far Up in the Mountains (FE FI FO FUM)?
(And yes, I know at least half of Colorado and Montana, and a good chunk of Wyoming are in the Great Plains.)

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I was curious as well about how many teams already have a travel event. I pulled together the numbers for plays in the “South East District”. I’m seeing the total number of teams in these 5 states as 98. In terms of number of events each team is attending, I think we’ve got:

2 or 3 Regionals - 52/98 or 53%
1 Regional - 46/98 or 47%

It varies significantly from state to state though. In Tennessee and Alabama are both around 70/30. Arkansas and Louisiana are around 50/50. Mississippi is around 30/70.

Mississippi and Louisiana both have a comparatively large number of 1st and 2nd year teams, so that may shift as those teams become more established.

Of the 200 plays at those 5 “South East District” events, 57 are from “out of district” - lots of international teams and plenty of teams from Florida. The AR, AL, TN, MS, and LA teams mostly play within the grouping, with only 5 plays “out of district” this year. That would be a pretty big travel burden to shift to those other teams.

The proximity of Rocket City and Smoky Mountain to one another has surely helped the TN and AL teams financially. And while we are surrounded by districts now, it wasn’t all that long ago that Knoxville teams were playing 2nd events nearby in NC, SC, GA, etc.

I also am thinking the low team density would make this region arrangement a tough sell, but what are the alternatives? I’m happy to look at anything that’ll make advancement start looking more like it does in districts. The first step is probably to build the team density. TN has a lot of work to do in the middle of the state, for example.

For now though? I went ahead and registered my team for 3 regionals for the first time ever. We had a great year last year, but still barely snuck in to Championships on a Wildcard. That’ll be even harder now. Might as well just get an extra guaranteed event in, because so much else can come down to luck in regionals.

Team Registration Info

Alabama (13)
34 - Magnolia & Rocket
538 - Smoky & Rocket
2973 - Magnolia & Rocket
3139 - Smoky & Rocket
3959 - Magnolia & Rocket
6107 - Smoky & Rocket
7111 - Tallahassee & Rocket
7428 - Smoky & Magnolia
8624 - Tallahassee & Rocket
8772 - Rocket
8773 - Rocket
9476 - Rocket
9590 - Rocket

2 Regionals - 9 (69%)
1 Regional - 4 (31%)

Arkansas (12)
16 - Arkansas & Midwest
323 - Arkansas
3937 - Arkansas & St. Louis
5437 - Arkansas
5454 - Arkansas & Kansas City
6055 - Arkansas
6186 - Arkansas
6586 - Arkansas & Bayou
7483 - Arkansas & Bayou
9067 - Arkansas & Rocket
9429 - Arkansas
9608 - Arkansas

2 Regionals - 6 (50%)
1 Regional - 6 (50%)

Louisiana (34)
1818 - Bayou
1912 - Magnolia & Bayou
2080 - Orlando & Bayou
2183 - Magnolia & Bayou
2221 - Magnolia & Bayou
2992 - Arkansas & Magnolia, & Bayou
3039 - Magnolia & Bayou
3468 - Magnolia & Bayou
3606 - Bayou
3616 - Arkansas & Bayou
3753 - Magnolia & Bayou
4087 - Magnolia & Bayou
4336 - Magnolia & Bayou
5785 - Bayou
5863 - Magnolia
5965 - Bayou
5971 - Bayou
5997 - Magnolia
7288 - Bayou
8044 - Arkansas & Magnolia & Bayou
8118 - Magnolia & Bayou
8808 - Magnolia & Bayou
9153 - Magnolia & Bayou
9240 - Bayou
9309 - Magnolia & Bayou
9405 - Bayou
9456 - Bayou
9630 - Magnolia
9660 - Bayou
9699 - Bayou
9700 - Magnolia
9708 - Bayou
9761 - Bayou
9768 - Magnolia

3 Regionals - 2 (6%)
2 Regionals - 14 (41%)
1 Regional - 18 (53%)

Mississippi (15)
364 - Magnolia & Bayou
456 - Magnolia & Bayou
590 - Magnolia
1421 - Magnolia & Bayou
1927 - Magnolia
2190 - Arkansas
4107 - Magnolia
6068 - Bayou
7094 - Magnolia
9435 - Magnolia & Bayou
9503 - Magnolia
9712 - Magnolia
9717 - Magnolia
9718 - Magnolia
9734 - Magnolia

2 Regionals - 4 (27%)
1 Regional - 11 (73%)

Tennessee (24)
547 - Rocket
1466 - Smoky & Magnolia & Rocket
2393 - Smoky & Rocket
3140 - Smoky & Rocket
3824 - Smoky & Rocket
3966 - Smoky & Rocket
3984 - Smoky & Rocket
4020 - Smoky & Rocket
4265 - Smoky & Rocket
4462 - Smoky
4504 - Smoky & Buckeye
4576 - Tallahassee & Miami Valley
4630 - Smoky
4764 - Arkansas
5002 - Arkansas & Rocket
5005 - Smoky & Rocket
5045 - St. Louis & Rocket
5744 - Smoky
6302 - Smoky & Miami Valley
6517 - Smoky & Rocket
7525 - Arkansas & Bayou
9073 - Arkansas & Rocket
9414 - Arkansas
9668 - Smoky

3 Regionals - 1 (4%)
2 Regionals - 16 (67%)
1 Regional - 7 (29%)

1 Like

Great work! I see only three teams are doing 3 events. I don’t know about 1466, but both 2992 and 8044 have strong community support, and awesome people, and are big enough to host off season events. 2992 even bought me dinner one evening at champs last year, even though I sent their inspection up to LRI at Magnolia for under-rated connectors*. And OBTW, the drive coach for 8044 is a 2992 alum.

Apart from two appearances at CMP, 3946 only rented hotels for one event, Rock City in 2019. If it hadn’t been during the Easter break, it wouldn’t have happened.

* I wasn’t being mean; I apologized to 3011 at Rock City 2019 because the inspectors hadn’t failed similar looking connectors rated less than the breaker and that wound up killing their robot in multiple matches. Against a rule AND a robot killer? I’m not going to sign off, but kick it to the LRI.

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I’ve visited both Rocket City and Rock City. Not all that far apart in the scheme of things. But while the first would make an excellent DCMP site, the second would have several logistics challenges.

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Is that really the South East? hmm…

I left off FUM because Minnesota/Iowa/et al were already labelled FUM (for, I assume, FIRST Upper Midwest.

So I am going to focus on Tennessee and Alabama here because of the closeness geographically of their two events also I am playing devil’s advocate here:

Alternative 1:
Tennessee and Alabama make a district just by themselves.

Based on current team count they would most likely get 6 or 7 slots at champs so 3 winners, Impact, EI, RAS (if applicable), and maybe the highest point earner maybe not.

Which does work out kind of nicely since I believe 6 teams from the 2 states qualified for Champs in 2023:
1466 (Wildcard Rocket City)
4020 (Wildcard Miami Valley)
4265 (EI at Arkansas)
6517 (Winner at Smoky Mountain)
7072 (Winner Rocket City)
7428 (Impact Magnolia)

However under 2024 rules 1466 and 4020 would not qualify as their wildcards would instead go to the 2nd selection of the winning alliance.

So while sacrificing 2 regionals (8 champs slots) for 6 slots may not be appealing on the surface it may be a net positive or at least neutral. Hopefully with further growth in the two states they will just naturally gain more slots as they gain teams as opposed to now where they would need to make a whole other regional to gain them

The negatives to this are the geographic outliers of the two states may suffer although moving the Alabama district event more towards the middle of the state and adding a potential 3rd district event in west Tennessee could help alleviate this.

Alternative 2:
Tennessee and Alabama join PCH like South Carolina did last year.

There are more teams across Tennessee and Alabama than there are in South Carolina, giving access back to events in Georgia and South Carolina would only be helpful to most teams. The benefits to Joining the existing structure of another district as opposed to creating your own also can not be undervalued.

The biggest hurdle here is once again teams in the more geographically isolated parts of the two states are going to be really hurt. This could be potentially helped by moving the Tennessee event to the central part of the state since the east Tennessee teams now have access to the South Carolina events. But that could be a tough sell since I imagine the Alabama event will also be somewhere near Huntsville.

Like I said just playing devil’s advocate but both are options other than this super district.

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Rip Oklahoma teams if Arkansas gets placed into a district anytime soon.

I honestly think a better proposal would be Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama. Not sure what to do with Tennessee; maybe it could temporarily be part of this hypothetical district until Kentucky and West Virginia grow, forming FIRST Appalachia.

Leaving Arkansas out leaves possibility for an Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma district just to the northwest, forming FIRST Heartland. This would allow interdistrict travel so Louisiana/Arkansas teams can still play together if the hypothetical FSE district were in place (and Oklahoma/Texas teams could finally play together more often again).