From what I have seen at most regionals, there are 2 or 3 top teams usually with team #1 picking team #2 and winning. Has anyone seen where team #2 has declined to form their own alliance and, if so, how did it work for them?
This happened in 2013 at champs. 1678 seeded first on Curie and was declined by many of the other alliance captains. This disrupted many of the other alliances in the division.
I think they were trying to break some powerhouse potential alliances rather than be with the teams they picked… a lot of scorched earth
On Galileo last year, 2836 seeded first, and 2056 second.
2836 picks 2056. 2056 declines. 2836 picks 525 (seed #3). 525 declines. 2836 picks 2067 (seed #4). 2067 accepts.
2056 picks 330 (seed 11) and dominates the field, winning the division. (In finals against alliance 6)
525 picks seed #37.
2836/2067 lose in the semis.
525 loses in the quarters.
In the few I have watched the #1 alliance did not win. This is just a observation I have no hard data at this point
In the CWU PNW District event, the 1st seed picked the 3rd seed, knowing they would decline, just to separate the 2nd and 3rd seed getting together, who could probably have won the event. The 1st and 2nd seed won’t always be the best pick for an alliance, and just choosing your alliance based on ranking may not always be the best idea.
We would have been thrilled if 1717 or 2056 had accepted our invite. However, they hadn’t worked through the game theoretic outcomes about what was going to happen as other teams declined us as well, which we were pretty sure was going to happen. Fortunately, the Curie field was very deep and 148 was a perfect match for us.
If you don’t seed 1st, don’t expect the higher seeds to roll over for you so that you can build your own desired alliance. They will control the draft however they can. Qualifications matter.
At the Finger Lakes Regional, team 5240 (#4 alliance captain) was declined by 20 (#5 alliance captain). Team 20 selected 639 and 1405 and won the regional.
A Similar situation happened at Reading Event this year when 133 (Rank 3) declined an invitation from 4905 (Rank 2) to form their own alliance. 133 (with 4761 and 4474) lost against 4905 (with 3930 and 1699) in the Semis.
Data for 2015:
https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jhtervay/2015AllianceAnalysis/master/img/Figure01.PNG
The one event that the 7th seed won was Finger Lakes, won by 4039, 3015, and 378, who are all excellent teams. IIRC 4039 was broken for a while during qualifiers, so they were a much lower seed (7th) than what they could have been.
This is great data. Thanks.
Actually the number one seed 319 invited the number 3 ranked 133. 133 declined which made them unavailable for the number 2 ranked 4905.
319 selected the 5 seed, 1058, and with a 3rd pick of rookie team 6161 went on to defeat the number 2 alliance in the finals.
I’ve been wondering about this decline for a while. Not sure why 133 wouldn’t want 319.
We also had to decline 2228 (5 captain) who was great, but we thought pairing with 3015 and 378 was the perfect alliance to have a shot at finals. The decline was a stressful decision because we needed both teams to have the best chance at gold, and either could have been picked before we got the chance. I think this move was only successful because of the depth and parity of skill of the teams at FLR. There weren’t really any huge outliers so any alliance had a shot. But 2015 was a pretty distinct year for alliance selection strategy and its effect on finishing position. This and years other than 2015 will have different success rates for low ranked alliances.
Happened at MAR Champs last year. #1 seed(316) picked #2 seed(1640) and 1640 declined. 316’s alliance actually went on to win.
The end of qualifications at Reading were quite crazy. After our last match really expected BERT to be the number one seed. In their last match they needed three ranking points and we thought they would surely achieve it. However in a round about way they ended up in a situation where they were going for a capture without a breach. Unfortunately for them, one of their alliance partners rolled off the batter and they only got two ranking points, leaving them in third place rather than first.
From what I heard they thought that SMART would make a better complement to their robot, and denied our pick (maybe assuming we’d pick 4905 and Smart would be available for them… Purely speculation). We opted to go with 1058 and then Smart was picked up by 4905.
This resulted in a very evenly balanced set of elimination rounds as 1, 2, and 3 each went on to form their own alliance. We would have loved to team up with BERT but it made for a great afternoon nonetheless.
4 teams declined, our team captain had a hard time keeping a straight face at the end.
I was 4761’s rep on the field during alliance selection, and that’s what I was told by 133 if I remember correctly. I personally disagree with their decision to decline, but it wasn’t clear either way. Having 1058 and 3930 both in the lower top 10 would have made for a really fun afternoon whether or not 133 declined your request.
Also, congrats on winning the event (and UNH)!
2014 MAR Champs as well. 1 seed (2180) was declined by 225, 1640, and 2590. 2180’s alliance reached the semifinals. The 2590’s 7 alliance (which included your team 
) won the event.
I don’t know the all the details either, but yes, the drive team and scouting captain had a plan that fell through at Reading, it was our loss. This is one of those “learning experiences” that FIRST is known for.
Team 319 (and your alliance partners) did awesome in Reading and congratulations on your wins this season.