Average match score of 2020’s week 1 events

Competition Rules/Strategy
1

Basically the title, what do you guys think the average week 1 score will be?

Based off of this CD thread posted last year: YOU Predict the Average Match Score of 2019’s Week 1 Regionals/Districts

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0 voters

1 Like
3

Qualifiers, Eliminations, or overall? One alliance or combined?

4

My vote was based on what I thought “the average alliance would score during quals.”

5

maybe modify this thread to not include LAN

/s

6

y’all are seriously overestimating week 1 teams so far.

edit: to be more clear: there will be plenty of matches where not all 3 robots move in auto as well as not all 3 even park. Plenty of teams will not be able to score in the high goal. This game is awful for low resource teams, which is why I went with 60, and I almost went down to 40.

11 Likes
7

Yeah, I pressed 60 and then (when it flipped to results) :anguished: Did I miss a lightsaber or something in the KOP tote? C3PO?

7 Likes
8

The way I figure:
Auto: 15 pts (just put in autonomousPeriodic() to move at full speed any direction)
Balls: 25 scored --> 30 pts
Wheel: 20 pts (but is worthless unless Stage 2 at CAPACITY)
Endgame: 25 pts + 15 pts + 10 pts (1 climb, level?, 2 park)

Total: 80 to 100 to 115

1 Like
9

1 team climbing and 2 parks, 15 points in auton, and 10 points per team during teleop would be 80… Maybe people are assuming way higher average ball counts or that single robots will keep the switch level? A reasonable average match score during week 1 should be between 60 and 85, nowhere near 97.

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I was thinking an alliance could pull the equivalent of 9 cycles of 5 balls (assuming low) so 45 + 15 auto + 10 for rotation control + on average I’d say 25 point endgame for 1climb two parks and the occasional balance will average out the triple parks so I got 90 and rounded down… is either my cycle or endgame estimate too generous? Or do people think that’s about right?

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The median team this year will score less than 10 balls per match. That means the average alliance will likely be under 35 balls scored per match. If it drops under 29, which is possible (maybe even likely), you wont see very many rotation control points.

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12

Okay, how do you go about making that estimate?

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@Karthik’s talk this year at Detroit listed the average number of game pieces scored per team in 2019 at 2.5, in a game with short sprints and a 1 game piece holding limit.

If you ignore the long distance cycles of this game, and simply multiply the number of game pieces from last year by the holding limit from this year you get 12.5 as your average number of balls per team.

You should drop that number to account for many weaker teams not being able to hold 5 balls, and for the longer sprint times. Also this game has a more difficult end game that many teams will take a long time to climb (vs a simple level 2 climb), and many teams will spend time on the color wheel.

That leads me to estimate the median number of balls scored to be below 10. 9.9999? Maybe, but below 10.

2 Likes
14

I would guess it would be easy enough for one team climbing to keep the generator level for the extra 15

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Week 1? Probably not that many teams climbing, let alone keeping it level. Week 4? Definitely an easy task for a single climber.

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I would agree with few teams climbing. But I think a team that can climb week 1 can climb in the middle to keep it level.

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You, like many others, overestimate the capabilities of most FRC teams.
How many teams week 1 with a climber will have 2 hooks to climb in the middle? Few.
How many teams week 1 with 2 hooks will have a balanced robot weight? Some.
How many teams week 1 with the previous 2 abilities will actually get around to climbing in more than 50% of their matches? Half.

18

Maybe I’m underestimating how hard it would be to balance with one robot. I figured an average weight robot would have about 7 inches of acceptable error on either side. Even with a one hook climb I think most teams would be able to line up within a 7inch error tolerance

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19

The end of the bag may change the relevance of comparisons to past seasons.

I put 60, because I think 2 low goal cycles per team will be about average for week 1, and I don’t think climbs will be very common.

1 Like
20

I strongly believe that we won’t see 25 balls scored on average in matches week 1. Sure, some matches might have it, but the majority will have a max of 5-10. At that point, the wheel is useless and won’t be able to be scored. Also, while it’s nice to think everyone will have a working “drive” autonomous week 1, it’s unrealistic. Also, look at how many times in 2016, 2018, and 2019 teams ended up off the parking spot at the end of the match. I don’t expect that to change.

7 Likes