What do you think the average ranking score of #1 seeds during 2019 Week 1 district and regional events? Bonus question: why?
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Maybe my vote was a little high, but I feel like there will be a team at a lot of events that consistently gets the HAB RP and in doing so wins a match.
It may be high as we are going to strong regionals, but a High ranking team should be able to get a climb, win 80% of matches, and get the rocket sometimes.
Especially in districts, I think there’s a lot of teams that will go for level 2+ climbs, so that climb RP is going to become common. Higher rank = more district points.
I would be surprised to see more than one or two rockets filled during the entire week one.
Please correct me if i am wrong, but a high tier team should be able to make 15s cycles and fill the top 2 levels of the rocket in 120 seconds. Then if another team can fill the bottom in 30s cycles, that rocket will be filled with time to spare. I think there will be at least 2 or 3 rockets in every event.
Let’s remember this is week 1. For a quick comparison, last year’s climbing ranking point was about 20-30% less common Week 1 than Week 5.
Should be somewhere in that low/mid 2 range imo
I think about half of week 1 events will have a team with a reliable (80%) non-victory RP and half will not. Add another ~1.75 for victory rank points, gets to about 2.25. This will likely climb rather rapidly in the second through fourth weeks as teams see what actually works on the field and what doesn’t.
Some (potentially) interesting data points:
| Year | Mean RP | Median RP |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2.76 | 2.75 |
| 2017 | 1.76 | 1.80 |
| 2018 | 2.64 | 2.58 |
Edit: This data is only for week one events in the respective years. Also, thx @Pauline_Tasci for an extra pair of eyes.
OK, the RP structure has been the same since 2016: 2/1/0 for W/T/L, and two non-zero sum RP for specific goals. Adding a couple of columns to assist memory:
| Year | Mean RP | Median RP | Easier* RP | Harder RP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2.76 | 2.75 | Disable four defenses | “Destroy” the tower |
| 2017 | 1.76 | 1.80 | 4 rotors from gears | 20kPa from fuel |
| 2018 | 2.64 | 2.58 | mobility + switch | Face the boss: 3 “climbs” |
| 2019 | L3+L1 or L2+L2+L1 climbs | rocket ship |
I’m going to raise my estimate a bit, but still less than 2.4. I think L3 will be harder in week 1 than four defenses in 2016 or mobility+switch in 2018, but not nearly as hard as 4 rotors or 20kPa in 2017.
What about those of us who think the average is going to be 2.395???
Anyway, I went with 2.40-2.59, with a bias towards the lower side of that range. Once the top teams fix the designs for their climbing mechanisms and get them working consistently, they should be able to reliably get the HAB bonus point each match by themselves. The rocket point requires more coordination between partners, and I simply do not think that teams will be good enough to be able to achieve that at any significant rate.
Correct answer: 2.61