Wow, I didn’t expect that semi-final match from the 2016 10,000 lakes regional to be on there. I’m surprised the win likelihood was only 2.6% for blue alliance.
That is surprising to me as well. I thought our alliances were quite even with your alliance having a slight advantage. It would have been fun to see if we could have won if we didn’t have technical problems.
SF 1-1 had the blue alliance with a 11.3% chance to win, but replacing 2502 with 2470 dropped the chances quite a bit for SF 1-2.
I’m actually not that surprised by the 10,000 lakes match.
I mean, on the red alliance, you had 2052 and 525, with a combined total of 1 loss (by 525 to 2052). Each of them was scoring like 5+ high goals average.
And on the blue side…
2502, who were capable of scoring 5+ high goals easy, but were broken
2823, who could score 5 high goals, but only if we were really lucky. A good match would be like 2, and 0 was pretty common at 10k
3038, who were an awesome breacher and 3rd bot, (with no high goal scoring)
and 2470, who also couldn’t score a high goal (but turns out that they were great at defense!)
So, I’d estimate a 10 high goal difference on average between the alliances going into the match. That’s an insane deficit.
I think the other odd thing to note about that match was 2470 went into the elimination rounds as the 4th replacement available. The reason they were out there was because there had already been two robots swapped in. I haven’t actually heard what happened to the 3rd team. I thought it really spoke highly of 2470 that they were ready for the match.
The upset on Newton this year. That was cool to watch and unexpected.
Going with the majority here… although I’d say just all of Newton elims. That 7th seed was fun to watch!
Not really a match but 4130 was upsetting not bevahse of there team but how it played out. I was at Kettering #2 and they were just killing those defenses. It’s a shame that they didn’t make it to states and even worlds. They really had a solid defense destroyer robot.
This thread is dedicated to the notion of an upset as an unexpected win in a game/sport. While there could be a conversation on losses we’re all disappointed about this season, this is meant to be a discussion of against-the-odds victories.
I second this
If you’re working with prediction models for FRC, I’d suggest you checkout what my team, The Wired Wizards, did with ORB.
The link to the forum post is here: https://www.chiefdelphi.com/forums/showthread.php?t=147817
We worked with match prediction specific to Stronghold, doing analysis based on teams affinity with different defenses… there’s more information in the post…
Did you ever see how accurate your predictions were? After training with data from 2011-2014, my current Elo model gets a Brier score of 0.1792 for predicting the winners of the 2016 Championship qual and playoff matches. I’m planning to try to predict matches with OPR, CCWM, and win contribution in the future and compare results.
Alternatively, it predicted 72.3% of the winning alliances correctly.
The project was exploratory, we were learning, but off the top of my head I think it was between 60 and 70 percent accurate.
If you’re going to compare to all of the various methods, would be cool to also compare to average qual score; anything less predictive than that is worthless basically.
Waterloo 2016 Finals takes the cake for me. 1241 and 610 played incredibly well.
Do you mean each team’s average qual score for the matches they have already played? Average qual score for the event would just predict a tie every match.
Wanna be lazier, try just predicting w/l based off existing win ratio for alliance at the event. I have a hunch it’s as good as anything else.
Yes, the average qual score of the team’s previous matches; just like OPR uses the data from the team’s previous qual matches, etc. OPR was always meant to be an improvement over average score. You can also do average winning margin as an alternate metric. OPR is supposed to be better than average score and CCWM is supposed to be better than average winning margin.
I should have read the rules of the thread first. Sorry for posting one about my own team.