Broken TBA OPRs

Carver and Galileo seem broken

Not the only ones… But these are REALLY broken.

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We are currently with -43.65. Something is broken or math does not like us.

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How many matches are they basing it on? OPR is questionably accurate to begin with but also very rough with low match counts. It’s maybe less broken and more just nonsensical

Four matches

I haven’t personally verified if TBA OPRs are incorrect or simply due to noise with only a couple matches per team. In the meantime, Statbotics.io has Elo and OPR calculations that update every hour.

Technical Detail

I use a modified equation that partially incorporates a team’s previous event to smoothen results. The results are more “predictive” but may be either good or bad depending on your use case.

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I’d give it time to approach correct.

I doubt TBA changed their code for this right before champs.

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