Car Knack Jr. Prediction Report Card

Predictions by Car Knack & Jr. (post #1)

The almighty Car Knack has allowed me to post our predictions on this year’s game:

  1. This year’s championship alliance will be at least two king of the hill machines. Bins will not decide the outcome and stacking machines will be toast. Again, FIRST has biased the game scoring too heavily in one direction.

I would call 111 and 469 ( 25 and 494) KOH Score 1 point

  1. Of the division winners, at least one team, probably two teams on each alliance will have a spare machine to tweak their autonomous software during the competition season. Gone are the days of building one machine and hoping to be competitive.

111, 302, 65, anyone else? Score 1 point

  1. The autonomous period will be the most fun part of the competition, best ever of FIRST. The last 30 seconds will be battlebots.

How about the last 90 seconds?Score 1 point

  1. The person selling concessions near the block long line at the practice/debug field will be one sure winner at the competition.

The one end by the concession tables was a circus Score 1 point

  1. The national final’s attendance will be the best ever and the media coverage will be outstanding. It will be very loud, and many student drivers will not be prepared. Indoor stadium, what a concept. Moving from Disney was a GOOD move.

Did you see all those people?Score 1 point

  1. At least one driver will trip and fall in the race for the controls after the autonomous period. Also, at least one human player, ref, or yes even fan will come in contact with a robot/part during competition. The FIRST guy on the shutdown switch will have the toughest job. Please be safe everyone.

We almost drilled the cameraman with the arm; heard of a few human player injuries, but no driver injuries Score 1/2 point

  1. Like last year’s prediction, at least 25% of the machines in the finals will experience damage and will not be at full strength or not even answer the bell.

In the final round, 111 was having trouble, 469 limped home, 25 was DOA Score 1 point

  1. No rookies in the finals. This thing is just too competitive.

only 3 rookies out of 96 teams, none in the final 12Score 1 point

Car Knack Jr.'s Total Score 7-1/2 out of 8

Sincerely

Car Knack Jr.

We came close to proving 8 wrong. Why does your robot flip at the worst possible time?

Impressive predictions, I must say! I’m surprised how right you were! I agreed with most of what you said, way back when, and you were definitely right.

Other than the tripped breaker, our machine ran perfectly from the beginning of rutgers to the last match…

Last year’s predictions from Car Knack and Jr. were just as accurate. I wouldn’t expect any less. Great job!

  1. The national final’s attendance will be the best ever and the media coverage will be outstanding. It will be very loud, and many student drivers will not be prepared. Indoor stadium, what a concept. Moving from Disney was a GOOD move.

I don’t think you hit it with this one. There were about the same number of people there this year as last year (from my estimation; the stadium seats approximately 70,000 and we used approximately a 1/4 of it therefore 17,000 people which is inline with past nationals). I’d also say there was far less media coverage this year than there was in the past. I saw Discovery Channel and TechTV as well as a few local stations. I saw exactly zero national coverage which we’ve had in the past (unless I wasn’t paying close enough attention). That and everyone I talked to thought the Houston venue was terrible.

Matt

*Originally posted by Brian Beatty *
**Predictions by Car Knack & Jr. (post #1)

  1. No rookies in the finals. This thing is just too competitive.

only 3 rookies out of 96 teams, none in the final 12Score 1 point

Car Knack Jr.'s Total Score 7-1/2 out of 8

Sincerely

Car Knack Jr. **

Well, we can’t help it if we aren’t picked :rolleyes:

Still trying to figure it out, must be the whole rookie thing. We ran every single match without a malfunction, our autonomous was 100% (we hit the wall and knocked 75% or more of it down to our side in ALL 7 of our matches) and when we were trying, we always got up on the ramp. Oh well, it was a great year and I am very proud of my students. Watch out for us next year, they have a hunger for FIRST now :yikes:

*Originally posted by Matt Leese *
**There were about the same number of people there this year as last year (from my estimation; the stadium seats approximately 70,000 and we used approximately a 1/4 of it therefore 17,000 people which is inline with past nationals). **

Although it may seem as though the event was about the same size as last year, don’t forget that many teams had to bail out at the request of their school systems for the war. Also, due to financial problems, some teams could not bring all of their students, etc…

I talked with someone else about this, and we agreed that while Disney may have been the more popular venue, Houston was a good move publicity-wise. If FIRST keeps moving the event around the country, you’ll end up with more interest among spectators, hence new teams already forming for next year. We shall see.

*Originally posted by amandabean *
**Although it may seem as though the event was about the same size as last year, don’t forget that many teams had to bail out at the request of their school systems for the war. Also, due to financial problems, some teams could not bring all of their students, etc… **

Don’t forget that FIRST re-opened the registration after teams cancelled. There were also more teams than last year (even with the war). 293 versus 289. Yeah, that’s right, MORE. If anything, teams should be able to bring just as many, if not, more students because the packages, according to FIRST, are lower in price than the disney packages.

Overall, I think Disney is a much better choice for the competition, because you get spectators from ALL OVER THE WORLD that drop by because they are visiting the theme park. Last year FIRST estimated that 20,000 people were there.

*Originally posted by Jnadke *
**Don’t forget that FIRST re-opened the registration after teams cancelled. There were also more teams than last year (even with the war). 293 versus 289. Yeah, that’s right, MORE. If anything, teams should be able to bring just as many, if not, more students because the packages, according to FIRST, are lower in price than the disney packages.

Overall, I think Disney is a much better choice for the competition, because you get spectators from ALL OVER THE WORLD that drop by because they are visiting the theme park. Last year FIRST estimated that 20,000 people were there. **

I suppose that’s true. Being that I was not in Houston, I guess I can’t gauge how much of a closed-off venue it is.

While Disney might have been expensive, I think the best thing for the economy and FIRST would be to keep moving the Championship event around. The fact that there are still US states without teams is a travesty - maybe we can fix that.

*Originally posted by amandabean *
**While Disney might have been expensive, I think the best thing for the economy and FIRST would be to keep moving the Championship event around. The fact that there are still US states without teams is a travesty - maybe we can fix that. **

I think the better answer would be to more heavily recruit teams in certain areas, and then place a regional there. I only say that because if the Championship is in one place for several years, then that venue will have many of the quirks worked out, and be able to provide a better expirience over all. For all the people who say Houston was a terrible place, rembmer that Disney has been doing this for a while–I say give Houston a chance to catch up.

(Although, I wouldn’t be totally against going back to Disney :))

Stephen

Lest we forget…
This is not a regional, it is not an easy task to set up a venue, 300 pits and power, five playing fields, spare parts, IFI, judges, referees, field setters, travel to/from hotels and hotel registrations, after event activities, closing ceremonies, wrap party and food, and five times the awards plus trophies, banners, and media coverage. I am glad I only have to worry about electrical on one robot compared to what the FIRST staff has to go through. I am sure they are all getting some much deserved sleep and time off this week. If no one else has said it, to all FIRST staffers and volunteers, Thank You Very Much.

Mike this is probably the wrong place to put this post, please move it to wherever it belongs.

*Originally posted by Brian Beatty *
**
2) Of the division winners, at least one team, probably two teams on each alliance will have a spare machine to tweak their autonomous software during the competition season. Gone are the days of building one machine and hoping to be competitive.

111, 302, 65, anyone else? Score 1 point

**

We also had a spare bot to tune our autonomous and practice driving.

Even though I understand the difficulties and implications that moving the championship event around have, I really would like to see a “traveling” championship event. I know that if it wasn’t for the move to TX our team would not have been able to make it to Nationals. I think it would be a good idea if there were 3-4 places that the National Event was rotated in each year. That way each team would have a National “close to home” every 4 years.

*Originally posted by foursixnine *
**We also had a spare bot to tune our autonomous and practice driving. **

as did we…I think that we probably owe a lot of our success to that, because I dont really think I would have been nearly as good at driving the robot without the practice with our backup bot. Next year our team is thinking of using the two bots from this year and the one from 2001 to actually have practice matches so the potential drivers can get a good feel for how the competition will actually run.

*Originally posted by Jnadke *
**Don’t forget that FIRST re-opened the registration after teams cancelled. There were also more teams than last year (even with the war). 293 versus 289. Yeah, that’s right, MORE. If anything, teams should be able to bring just as many, if not, more students because the packages, according to FIRST, are lower in price than the disney packages.

Overall, I think Disney is a much better choice for the competition, because you get spectators from ALL OVER THE WORLD that drop by because they are visiting the theme park. Last year FIRST estimated that 20,000 people were there. **

The 2001 competition (right before the points system) was the largest with over 300 teams. I think there were like 330 teams attending. That is why they instituted the qualification points standards and wait list. Disney handled it well with a huge pit tent, two playing field tents (with 2 fields each), and 20,000 seat Einstein Arena.