Car Nack Predicts 2010-1
Contrary to most previous years, the qualifying matches will have, on average, much higher scores than the elimination matches.
Unless there is a revision to the definition of a “suspended robot”, an alliance scoring eight points (three robots hanging) will be extremely rare. So rare in fact that it will never happen at least 40 regional competitions and a chance it will never happen in the FRC 2010.
Car Nack has spoken.
Woohoo! Been waiting for this. 
I can see how #1 might come about.
I think prediction #2 is iffy. It depends on lots of variables that are hard to get a grasp on (though I suppose it’s predictions like this Car Nack is especially skilled at making). You’ll need a good suspend-o-bot who can also score (not an impossible combination, I think) a solid scorer/hanger and enough depth of field to get an acceptable scorer/hanger combination.
On the same note, I think 8 points will be exceptionally rare (or unheard of?) in qualifying matches. I think it might be the Bee’s Knees in eliminations though. If you can use two robots to tie up the balls (kick them to your zone, or preferably score them) while suspendo-bot gets in position in the final 40 seconds, I think the 8 points will be hard to beat, especially if you can keep the scores in check during tele-op.
I hope at least one robot is dedicated to proving point number 2 wrong. I am unsure who has the guts (or foolishness) to take such a path, but I would love to see it.
#1 seems spot on if you slightly amend that to say higher combined scores. And it’s pretty much spot on without that.
Thank you, Car Nack. You are wise.
I have a lot of money riding on #2 with several members of the GDC. To clarify, I agree with Car Nack.
Neither are really surprising.
Defense will become much more important in the elims and unless there is a pairing like the 67, 111, 45 alliance in a qualification match you are probably not going to get teams together that are skilled enough to pull off an 8 point maneuver.
Car Nack is indeed a wise one! His truths shall lead us all.:rolleyes:
How about this?
I was wondering what part of the game The Great Car Nack was going to address first. Then two predictions at once. The Great becomes greater with each passing year.
No matter how good 67, 111 and 45’s really are (and they’ll probably be better), they won’t be able to score 8 points if the robots aren’t designed to do so, and I think that’s the point here; the lack of 8 point-finales may become a self-fulfilling prophecy - if no one believes it will happen, no one will spend time building the robot to do it, and then it will obviously not happen.
I predict we will see more 8 point hangs than many of you seem to think.
For 8 points, I’d have to agree that no alliance will do it in any regional.
In Atlanta, however, on every field at least once during eliminations and Einstein.
If this is truly a low-scoring game, 8 points is like the 60 points, an alliance got in 2007.
I think everyone needs to estimate the length of time it will take to hang three robots. The risk of a loss becomes too great while the other team is scoring while you are doing neither scoring or defending. I would love to see it but I don’t think I will.
I agree with this if all three bots try to hang early; yet a graduated approach to hanging may provide more options that mitigate the risk. In any case, it will be a game-time decision.
I really hope to see an 8pt hang in week1.
Note I said “hope”:, and not “expect”…
Jesse,
As Car Nack has predicted (and I concur) the first robot up may take between 10 and 15 seconds to hang. Even if the other robots were able to hang in the same length of time you can figure at least another 20-30 seconds for that and perhaps longer. So that takes the first robot out of the game after 75-90 seconds of play. I would think that three robots ought to be able to score 8 points in that same length of time, while defending against the opposing alliance at least part of that time.
I do not want to second guess the great one but I suspect the “revision” would be a multiplier for each rather than singular points.
I’m worried you may be right. And with the non-ball end, no doubt. I hope everyone’s human players have practice to feed balls up so they can do it slowly and calmly, without whipping that thing around.
On the topic of hanging, those that were around in 2004 remember how fast robots were able to climb the stairs and platforms and hang with just seconds left in a match. I remember robots that were able to hang and lift with seconds left in the matches on a consistent basis using very simple mechanisms. 8 points in the end game, I can see it happening, and I think the regional(s) that I will be able to attend I will see it with my own eyes.
Best of Luck
Our team has done some of the calculations on the forces on the first hanging robot to support a second (didn’t even consider the third hanger). Based on that, I think that is as much of a challenge as the time restraint.
I think we wont see it largely because the top team is unlikely to be comfortable supporting 450(ish)lbs from their tower grabber widget. If its beefy enough to hold up 450 lbs of robot, its going to be heavy, and i doubt anyone is going to make that design tradeoff.
EDIT: Unless, of course, the GDC decides to make it more worth our while… like say… a 2nd SUSPENDED ROBOT is worth a 2x or 3x multiplier to either the hanging stack, or the goals scored.
Technically, it does not have to be “beefy” to support that kind of weight. There are tradeoffs involved.
I don’t think it’ll be seen because I don’t know how much most teams can be trusted to try and attach themselves to someone else’s robot without breaking something. 
The point values don’t make it worth it, IMO.