Chairman's Predictions 2020: Week 1

It’s that time again - or rather, “that time” was last weekend and I definitely have been slow to post these. 2020 Chairman’s Power Rating (“CPR”) predictions are here! , which is a statistic generated from a team’s recent culture award wins. It’s not perfect, but I’ve found it to be insightful and fun to look at at the very least :wink:

ISR #1 (2020isde1)
1. 2096 (RoboActive) 1.41 CPR
2. 3211 (The Y Team) 0.83 CPR
3. 2212 (The Spikes) 0.25 CPR
4. 4590 (GreenBlitz) 0.25 CPR
5. 1574 (MisCar) 0.14 CPR
6. 4586 (PRIMO) 0.08 CPR
ISR #2 (2020isde2)
1. 3339 (BumbleB) 0.5 CPR
2. 5987 (Galaxia in memory of David Zohar) 0.36 CPR
3. 3316 (D-Bug) 0.3 CPR
4. 5951 (Makers Assemble) 0.28 CPR
5. 3075 (Ha-Dream Team) 0.17 CPR
6. 6168 (alzahrawi) 0.14 CPR
7. 5614 (Team Sycamore) 0.08 CPR
Kettering University #1 (2020miket)
1. 245 (Adambots) 0.42 CPR
2. 1506 (Metal Muscle) 0.42 CPR
3. 2337 (EngiNERDs) 0.42 CPR
4. 1322 (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team (GRAYT)) 0.36 CPR
Macomb Community College (2020mimcc)
1. 1718 (The Fighting Pi) 1.08 CPR
2. 3641 (The Flying Toasters) 0.67 CPR
3. 302 (The Dragons) 0.5 CPR
4. 3875 (Red Storm Robotics) 0.33 CPR
5. 910 (The Foley Freeze) 0.3 CPR
6. 3175 (Knight Vision) 0.14 CPR
7. 217 (ThunderChickens) 0.08 CPR
8. 5114 (Titanium Tigers) 0.08 CPR
9. 6077 (Wiking Kujon) 0.08 CPR
10. 4680 (AzTech Eagles ) 0.06 CPR
11. 5424 (Rogue Robots) 0.03 CPR
12. 5436 (Cyber Cats) 0.03 CPR
Southfield (2020misou)
1. 548 (Robostangs) 0.53 CPR
2. 33 (Killer Bees) 0.42 CPR
3. 1481 (The Riveters) 0.08 CPR
4. 5531 (Orange Crush) 0.08 CPR
Traverse City (2020mitvc)
1. 3618 (Petoskey Paladins) 0.58 CPR
2. 4377 (Boyne City Blaze) 0.53 CPR
3. 5086 (Cadillac Connectors) 0.36 CPR
4. 3357 (COMETS) 0.25 CPR
5. 3572 (Wavelength) 0.08 CPR
6. 3767 (Titan Robotics) 0.08 CPR
7. 5525 (Alcona Tool Cats) 0.08 CPR
8. 1711 (RAPTORS) 0.06 CPR
Regional Monterrey (2020mxmo)
1. 3478 (PrepaTec - LamBot) 1.0 CPR
2. 4635 (PrepaTec - Botbusters) 0.92 CPR
3. 3794 (Tecmilenio WinT ) 0.83 CPR
4. 3354 (PrepaTec-TecDroid) 0.75 CPR
5. 6106 ( PrepaTec - TecGear ) 0.75 CPR
6. 6348 (PrepaTec - HORUS) 0.67 CPR
7. 4010 (PrepaTec - Nautilus) 0.58 CPR
8. 6652 (Tigres) 0.5 CPR
9. 4775 (Aztech Robotics) 0.41 CPR
Great Northern (2020ndgf)
1. 4607 (C.I.S.) 1.67 CPR
2. 2500 (Herobotics) 1.17 CPR
3. 2883 (F.R.E.D (Fighting Rednecks Engineering and Design)) 0.75 CPR
4. 3313 (Mechatronics) 0.75 CPR
5. 1619 (Up-A-Creek Robotics) 0.58 CPR
6. 1792 (Round Table Robotics) 0.41 CPR
7. 876 (Thunder Robotics) 0.25 CPR
8. 2549 (Millerbots) 0.17 CPR
Granite State (2020nhgrs)
1. 467 (The Colonials) 0.56 CPR
2. 4905 (Andromeda One) 0.47 CPR
3. 1058 (PVC Pirates) 0.25 CPR
4. 1729 (Team Inconceivable!) 0.25 CPR
5. 133 (B.E.R.T.) 0.17 CPR
6. 1519 (Mechanical Mayhem) 0.08 CPR
7. 4909 (Bionics) 0.08 CPR
8. 319 (Big Bad Bob) 0.06 CPR
9. 4761 (The Robockets) 0.03 CPR
Miami Valley (2020ohmv)
1. 3324 (The Metrobots) 1.08 CPR
2. 329 (Mohawks) 0.92 CPR
3. 4930 (Electric Mayhem) 0.75 CPR
4. 5667 (The Digital Eagles) 0.75 CPR
5. 5811 (BONDS) 0.75 CPR
6. 3504 (Girls of Steel) 0.58 CPR
7. 2783 (Engineers of Tomorrow ) 0.5 CPR
8. 1511 (Rolling Thunder) 0.33 CPR
9. 379 (The RoboCats) 0.25 CPR
10. 3193 (Falco Tech) 0.25 CPR
11. 5413 (Stellar Robotics) 0.25 CPR
Clackamas Academy (2020orore)
1. 3024 (My Favorite Team) 1.0 CPR
2. 1540 (Flaming Chickens) 0.39 CPR
3. 2471 (Team Mean Machine) 0.33 CPR
4. 2521 (SERT) 0.25 CPR
5. 4488 (Shockwave) 0.08 CPR
6. 6831 ( A-05 Annex) 0.08 CPR
Palmetto (2020scmb)
1. 694 (StuyPulse) 0.75 CPR
2. 4451 (ROBOTZ Garage) 0.75 CPR
3. 744 (Shark Attack) 0.41 CPR
4. 5472 (Stallion Robotics: The Wyld Stallyns) 0.33 CPR
5. 3824 (HVA RoHAWKtics) 0.25 CPR
6. 5943 (The Bad News Gears) 0.25 CPR
Los Angeles North (2020caln)
1. 3309 (Friarbots) 1.5 CPR
2. 1678 (Citrus Circuits) 1.25 CPR
3. 4481 (Team Rembrandts) 0.91 CPR
4. 589 (Falkon Robotics) 0.83 CPR
5. 2429 (La Canada Engineering Club) 0.41 CPR
6. 2102 (Team Paradox) 0.25 CPR
7. 6814 (Ellipse ) 0.25 CPR
Northern CT (2020ctnct)
1. 78 (AIR STRIKE) 0.92 CPR
2. 2067 (Apple Pi) 0.41 CPR
3. 1735 (Green Reapers) 0.36 CPR
4. 6328 (Mechanical Advantage) 0.25 CPR
5. 166 (Chop Shop) 0.08 CPR
6. 181 (Birds Of Prey) 0.08 CPR
7. 2877 (LigerBots) 0.06 CPR
Gainesville (2020gagai)
1. 4188 (Columbus Space Program) 1.05 CPR
2. 4468 (Fernbank LINKS) 0.92 CPR
3. 1648 (G3 Robotics) 0.5 CPR
4. 1683 (Techno Titans) 0.41 CPR
5. 1746 (OTTO) 0.08 CPR
6. 6919 (The Commodores) 0.08 CPR
7. 4189 (Chargers) 0.03 CPR
Greater Kansas City (2020mokc)
1. 3284 (Camdenton LASER ) 1.83 CPR
2. 2723 (Team Rocket) 0.83 CPR
3. 525 (Swartdogs) 0.75 CPR
4. 4499 (The Highlanders) 0.75 CPR
5. 3928 (Team Neutrino) 0.66 CPR
6. 1710 (The Ravonics Revolution) 0.58 CPR
7. 1939 (THE KUHNIGITS) 0.25 CPR
8. 1775 (Tigerbytes) 0.17 CPR
9. 1986 (Team Titanium) 0.17 CPR
10. 1987 (Broncobots) 0.08 CPR
Wake County (2020ncwak)
1. 2642 (Pitt Pirates) 0.31 CPR
2. 4561 (TerrorBytes) 0.25 CPR
3. 5190 (Green Hope Falcons) 0.25 CPR
4. 3459 (Team PyroTech) 0.08 CPR
5. 6500 (GearCats 6500) 0.08 CPR
Durham College (2020onosh)
1. 4039 (MakeShift Robotics) 1.03 CPR
2. 4476 (W.A.F.F.L.E.S.) 0.33 CPR
3. 188 (Blizzard) 0.25 CPR
4. 3739 (Oakbotics) 0.25 CPR
5. 5885 (Villanova WiredCats) 0.08 CPR
Hatboro-Horsham (2020pahat)
1. 1640 (Sab-BOT-age) 0.94 CPR
2. 1403 (Cougar Robotics) 0.75 CPR
3. 708 (Hatters Robotics) 0.64 CPR
4. 1647 (Iron Devils) 0.25 CPR
5. 2729 (Storm Robotics Team) 0.17 CPR
6. 4575 (The Tin Mints) 0.14 CPR
7. 303 (The T.E.S.T. Team) 0.08 CPR
8. 1218 (SCH Vulcan Robotics) 0.08 CPR
9. 1712 (Dawgma) 0.03 CPR
Dripping Springs (2020txdri)
1. 1477 (Texas Torque) 1.41 CPR
2. 2881 (Lady Cans) 1.0 CPR
3. 3847 (Spectrum -△◅) 0.58 CPR
4. 624 (CRyptonite) 0.25 CPR
5. 6357 (The Spring Konstant) 0.25 CPR
6. 4641 (United) 0.08 CPR
Greenville (2020txgre)
1. 2468 (Team Appreciate) 1.5 CPR
2. 5417 (Eagle Robotics) 0.75 CPR
3. 1296 (Full Metal Jackets) 0.58 CPR
4. 3310 (Black Hawk Robotics) 0.25 CPR
5. 4206 (Robo Vikes) 0.25 CPR
Haymarket VA (2020vahay)
1. 5243 (Aegis Robotics) 0.44 CPR
2. 1111 (Power Hawks Robotics) 0.42 CPR
3. 2363 (Triple Helix) 0.33 CPR
4. 339 (Kilroy Robotics) 0.17 CPR
5. 612 (Chantilly Robotics) 0.08 CPR
6. 5546 (:hammer_and_pick: A.R.T. :hammer_and_pick:) 0.08 CPR
7. 836 (The RoboBees) 0.03 CPR
8. 2199 (Robo-Lions) 0.03 CPR
Glacier Peak (2020wasno)
1. 4911 (CyberKnights) 0.53 CPR
2. 1318 (Issaquah Robotics Society) 0.31 CPR
3. 4915 (Spartronics) 0.11 CPR
4. 5588 (Reign Robotics) 0.08 CPR
5. 4131 (Iron Patriots) 0.06 CPR
6. 2976 (Spartabots) 0.03 CPR

I hope some of this data is helpful or fun for you or your teams teams! A surprising amount of people reached out wondering when this year’s predictions would be out, so I’m glad to see that people are finding use (or fun) out of this.

(If you’re curious how CPR works, you can click below and it’ll expand and explain the whole process.)

How CPR is calculated

The Chairman’s Power Rating is a strength value based off of a team’s recent (current year + past 3 years) culture award wins (Engineering Inspiration and Chairman’s.)

  1. A point value is assigned to each level and type of culture award: 1 point for Regional Chairman’s, .33 points for Regional Engineering Inspiration, .33 for District Chairman’s (1/3 a Regional Chairman’s) and .11 for District Engineering Inspiration (1/3 a Regional EI). Winning a District Championship Chairman’s or EI fills in the remaing 2/3rds of the points, meaning that a team who’s won District Champs Chairman’s will have the same end points as a team that’s won Regional Chairman’s. Bonuses are added for Championship Engineering Inspiration and Championship Chairman’s Award Finalists.
  2. The team’s points for 2020, 2019, 2018, and 2017 are calculated. 2019 points are at full value , 2018 points are reduced to 75% , 2017 points are reduced to 50% , and 2016 points are reduced to 25% .
  3. The adjusted points are added together, resulting in a team’s CPR.

Any team with a CPR larger than 0 is shown on their event’s rankings.

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You may want to consider Rookie All Star if you are going back to 2017 and 2016.

For example, 6357 has a 0.25 CPR at Dripping Springs. Their first year was in 2017, in which they won a rookie all star award at the Dallas regional.

In 2019, they won a district Engineering Inspiration award. 2 culture awards in 3 years indicates a higher chance of chairmans in my mind.

Problem with that is you don’t want last year’s rookie all stars getting high CPRs because their chance of winning chairmans as a 1st or 2nd year team is incredibly slim.

Don’t know how you would do it, but something to think about!

Interesting concept. I think it came up last year though, but Ryan probably has more insight. Would certainly make my team’s prospects a look a little better (RI+RAS 2018, EI + CMP GP 2019)!

thank you for making this!

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What led you to choose to value EI a third of RCA? I think I’d weight it slightly heavier.

This is honestly just extremely TOXIC, IMO…

What?

If you don’t like predictions don’t pay attention.

Actually nevermind, your post history indicates a lot of trolling.

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I just don’t feel that the Chairman’s Award is something that should really be even debated and rankings just feel out of place… So much more goes into it, and these rankings seem to solely pertain to prior awards won even though the Chairman’s Award is an extremely complex, multi-faceted, and highly prestigious honor. It almost seems like pointless speculation; just let the chips fall where they may and hope that the most deserving team wins.

Compared to predictions for who will win events?

This.

Thanks for doing the rankings @Ryan_S! I always find them to be very interesting.

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The way I tell my kiddos to look at them is like this:

It’s not a good way of measuring who will win, but rather a way to tell you who your biggest competition is based off their past years successes. It’s in no way there to predict the winner, because equations don’t account for human mistakes or even for problems that could’ve occurred throughout their season. You could be predicted to lose a match based off data from past matches, but the numbers don’t take into account broken intakes. So obviously take it with a grain of salt, but it lets you know who to observe throughout the season.

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Only out of curiosity, not that it matters at all, can someone walk me through this calculation?
Would 2019 district chairmans (.33) + 2019 DCMP chairmans (.66) not make this 1.0?

Sure, you can say that, but all of you BiG dAtA bOtS aren’t realizing that the Chairman’s Award isn’t a traditional ‘Competition’ that rankings are used for. You shouldn’t be trying to win the Chairman’s Award, you should be doing what is right and what you believe would support others in your community, and then receiving recognition for doing so.

For example, it makes sense to rank professional sports teams, but it doesn’t make sense to rank people’s chances of winning an award at the ESPYs. I just think that this is too far and doesn’t truly capture what FIRST wants to capture by giving a team the Chairman’s Award. Teams shouldn’t view it as a ‘trip to Worlds’ but should view it as an award that they received for truly making a difference.

Looks like we have to prove this wrong then!

I’ll say this over and over again, the CPR rankings are not very effective from Week 1-4. Some teams, such as mine, have been working endlessly to qualify for the award. But the rankings are very insightful, and I understand the calculations that go into it. Thank you for your work Ryan!

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AMEN completely understand and agree. You’re making the same point I put in my comment too. But speaking in the mindset of a student that just put in SO MUCH TIME into completing the award, broooo the amount of work you put into it makes you really want to know your chances.

Not because you’re doing outreach for chairmans, but because they’ve spent so much time on the award submission. And once they take the next step to apply for chairmans, it does become a competition because there’s a winner. That’s just how it is. Regardless of whether a team chooses to apply that year, the same outreach efforts occur year after year and new students with new passions add and let that grow naturally. At least that’s how it is on my team. It’s their choice to apply or to not apply. It’s that motivation to take the next step and go through the strenuous award submission. Judge’s know what’s genuine and what’s not. There’s so much outlining, planning, practicing, and time that goes in to make it perfect. Simply applying for the award doesn’t make all your outreach automatically worthless and fake, and neither does simply looking at your chances. If that’s your stance, then the whole award shouldn’t exist.

And if one of my neighboring teams do win, then YAY!! It’s all love and gracious professionalism all the time. We root for them like we root for ourselves. Their success is our communities success.

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This response is like what I think the kids would call fake woke. You’re sort of right in that yes, teams should be doing great Chairman’s-worthy things for the sake of doing them, for the betterment of their communities, not for the sake of winning an award. That being said, teams can both do good things for their own sake and also attempt to win the award. If you don’t submit an essay, you’re not even eligible. And I wouldn’t want to be a judge who reads dozens of submissions for teams who “don’t want the award.”

We can have debates about the efficacy of the Chairman’s Award all day. As someone with a genuine passion for community service, education, and inspiration, the direction the award has been heading does pain me at times. It is difficult because, on the one hand, the award incentives positive behavior but, on the other hand, teams now do things for the sake of getting awards which is not ideal. That being said, we can have the debate about the state of the award as it is in another thread, time, and place.

In the mean time, calling the award something that teams shouldn’t try to win is counter to the very definition of an awards submission. It is competitive and it is political, whether you like it or not (and feel free to not!). Anything which is competitive can be ranked. Of course, you can’t predict winners with 100% accuracy. You certainly can discuss who the “heavyweights” are, though. It’s the exact same with the robot–you never know who will win for certain but you know who the household names, biggest and loudest competitors are.

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No need for the “fake woke” comment… CRINGE!

k glad we agree on the rest of it

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I’m still trying to imagine saying this in reference to someone who is from a Hall of Fame team.

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image


Nothing wrong with having a little fun with predictions. Predictions are always wrong to some degree, and it’s fun when you can do something nobody expects.

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I guess you don’t need to imagine it anymore!

This response made me think a lot, and I feel that it’s important to explore this topic a bit more. As with all my posts, my views here are my own and don’t represent any organization I have past or present affiliations with.

I agree COMPLETELY that the purpose of having a Chairman’s Award isn’t so that teams can run home smugly with a banner. I don’t think anyone in this thread disagrees on that. It’s not about clout, or having the “best” outreach or essay, or comparing your team’s community impact to mine.

Ryan and I were on 1902 together for four years, and did a lot of program development, outreach work, and awards submission editing. We’re also humongous nerds and enjoy competition, which is what brought us to FIRST initially. When we ran the CPR scripts year after year, we’d enjoy looking at the “predictions” and comparing them to actual results, because algorithms are fun like that. I found that, for me and others on 1902, the CPR ratings encouraged us to look at teams’ outreach for inspiration, reach out to them for help with our own work, and when a team won at an event that we’d never heard of, we’d often enter a frenzy of research to learn more about them.

I don’t mean to speak for Ryan here, and he’s welcome to correct me if he disagrees, but for me it was never about the rankings relative to others, but rather a tool that could highlight teams that judges thought were deserving in past years. Ryan has acknowledged in the past that CPR is meant to be “helpful” and “fun”, and has urged others not to read too deeply into the numbers his algorithm spits out. On 1902, it was deeply ingrained in our team culture to call each other out, students and mentors alike, if someone’s competitive instincts caused them to lose sight of the real purpose behind our work; we made a distinct effort to be intentional with our outreach and mindful of our perspectives, as I would expect from any team that submits for the Chairman’s Award and any team in FIRST.

I think the Chairman’s Award is inherently a double-edged sword in some ways- it’s an award that is given where one team gets a banner and others do not. It’s an award you have to actively submit for in order to be considered, but it’s also an award that’s not at all about competition. I’m personally of the opinion that we can have both worlds, where people and teams fiercely compete for an award but also work together to better each others’ outreach and award submissions, where we make wacky algorithms to “analyze the competition” and still do the work because it makes the world a better place, not because we get banners and bids. I believe that in a way, that duality is quintessential to FRC and is “coopertition” at its finest.

I’m not trying to soapbox, but I’d rather promote an earnest discussion on these perspectives, which are valid and worthy of discussion, than throw around generalizations and anger. Coming after my teammate and friend instead of challenging his beliefs in a kind way is far from the GP I expect to see in the FIRST community. If you want to engage in a mindful way, I’d be overjoyed to continue the conversation, but slinging anger on the internet is an action I think should be reserved for elsewhere.

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