Chairman's Predictions: Week 2

With week 1 behind us and week 2 events quickly approaching, now’s the time for me to post my algorithm’s predictions for the Chairman’s (and to an extent, Engineering Inspiration) winners of this week’s events!


ISR #2 (2018isde2):
  1. 3339 (BumbleB) - 0.75 CPR
  2. 2096 (RoboActive) - 0.5 CPR
  3. 5987 (Galaxia in memory of David Zohar) - 0.08 CPR

Arkansas Rock City (2018arli):
  1. 1912 (Team Combustion) - 0.75 CPR
  2. 3310 (Black Hawk Robotics) - 0.75 CPR
  3. 4400 (CERBOTICS) - 0.75 CPR
  4. 1764 (Liberty Robotics) - 0.5 CPR
  5. 2080 (Torbotics) - 0.5 CPR
  6. 5006 (Apophis) - 0.5 CPR
  7. 5437 (Rocky Balboabots) - 0.5 CPR
  8. 3337 (Panthrobotics) - 0.25 CPR
  9. 1700 (Gatorbotics) - 0.25 CPR
  10. 5454 (Wild Fire) - 0.17 CPR
  11. 701 (RoboVikes) - 0.08 CPR

Arizona North (2018azfl):
  1. 3309 (Friarbots) - 1.25 CPR
  2. 1011 (CRUSH) - 1.08 CPR
  3. 2486 (CocoNuts) - 1.0 CPR
  4. 1165 (Team Paradise) - 0.75 CPR
  5. 3925 (Circuit of Life) - 0.75 CPR
  6. 2403 (Plasma Robotics) - 0.5 CPR
  7. 585 (Cyber Penguins) - 0.33 CPR
  8. 2375 (Dragon Robotics) - 0.25 CPR
  9. 3019 (Firebirds) - 0.17 CPR
  10. 60 (Bionic Bulldogs) - 0.08 CPR

San Diego (2018casd):
  1. 1622 (Team Spyder) - 1.33 CPR
  2. 2485 (W.A.R. Lords) - 1.08 CPR
  3. 3256 (WarriorBorgs) - 1.0 CPR
  4. 624 (CRyptonite) - 0.75 CPR
  5. 812 (The Midnight Mechanics) - 0.75 CPR
  6. 4201 (Vitruvian Bots) - 0.25 CPR
  7. 3128 (Aluminum Narwhals) - 0.17 CPR

Orlando (2018flor):
  1. 1902 (Exploding Bacon) - 1.88 CPR
  2. 180 (S.P.A.M.) - 0.75 CPR
  3. 233 (The Pink Team) - 0.5 CPR
  4. 3556 (GET SMART) - 0.25 CPR

Dalton (2018gadal):
  1. 2974 (Walton Robotics) - 0.67 CPR
  2. 4910 (East Cobb Robotics) - 0.25 CPR
  3. 1746 (OTTO) - 0.08 CPR
  4. 3091 (100 Scholars) - 0.06 CPR

Shenzhen (2018gush):

Center Line (2018micen):
  1. 1025 (IMPI Robotics) - 0.42 CPR
  2. 3175 (Knight Vision) - 0.36 CPR
  3. 1189 (The Gearheads) - 0.25 CPR
  4. 5915 (Mercy Midnight Storm ) - 0.08 CPR
  5. 123 (Team - Cosmos) - 0.03 CPR

Kettering University #2 (2018mike2):
  1. 2604 (Metal and Soul) - 0.5 CPR
  2. 2619 (The Charge) - 0.44 CPR
  3. 217 (ThunderChickens) - 0.28 CPR
  4. 1684 (The Chimeras ) - 0.08 CPR
  5. 5084 (Team FridgeBot) - 0.03 CPR

St. Joseph (2018misjo):
  1. 2959 (Robotarians) - 0.25 CPR
  2. 85 (B.O.B. (Built on Brains)) - 0.22 CPR
  3. 2337 (EngiNERDs) - 0.14 CPR
  4. 2767 (Stryke Force) - 0.08 CPR
  5. 3452 (GreengineerZ) - 0.08 CPR
  6. 5980 (East Grand Rapids Robotics) - 0.08 CPR
  7. 2611 (Jacktown Vectors) - 0.03 CPR
  8. 3620 (Average Joes) - 0.03 CPR

Waterford (2018miwat):
  1. 68 (Truck Town Thunder) - 0.91 CPR
  2. 2137 (TORC) - 0.44 CPR
  3. 107 (Team R.O.B.O.T.I.C.S.) - 0.08 CPR
  4. 1 (The Juggernauts) - 0.06 CPR
  5. 4130 (The Blue Devils) - 0.06 CPR
  6. 3770 (BlitzCreek) - 0.03 CPR

Lake Superior (2018mndu):
  1. 1816 (“The Green Machine”) - 1.33 CPR
  2. 4607 (C.I.S.) - 1.25 CPR
  3. 2052 (KnightKrawler) - 0.5 CPR
  4. 2526 (Crimson Robotics) - 0.5 CPR
  5. 93 (NEW Apple Corps) - 0.5 CPR
  6. 4009 (Denfeld DNA Robotics) - 0.17 CPR

Northern Lights (2018mndu2):
  1. 876 (Thunder Robotics) - 0.83 CPR
  2. 2502 (Talon Robotics) - 0.58 CPR
  3. 2512 (Duluth East Daredevils) - 0.25 CPR
  4. 2177 (The Robettes) - 0.25 CPR
  5. 3630 (The Stampede) - 0.17 CPR

St. Louis (2018mosl):
  1. 3284 (Camdenton LASER ) - 1.75 CPR
  2. 2783 (Engineers of Tomorrow ) - 0.42 CPR
  3. 2081 (Icarus) - 0.17 CPR
  4. 4329 (Lutheran Roboteers) - 0.17 CPR

Wilsonville (2018orwil):
  1. 1540 (Flaming Chickens) - 1.89 CPR
  2. 2471 (Team Mean Machine) - 0.42 CPR
  3. 3024 (My Favorite Team) - 0.28 CPR
  4. 2521 (SERT) - 0.25 CPR
  5. 4488 (Shockwave) - 0.08 CPR
  6. 2635 (Lake Monsters) - 0.06 CPR
  7. 3673 (C.Y.B.O.R.G. Seagulls) - 0.03 CPR

Hub City (2018txlu):
  1. 418 (Purple Haze) - 0.83 CPR
  2. 1619 (Up-A-Creek Robotics) - 0.75 CPR
  3. 2283 (Panteras) - 0.25 CPR
  4. 5526 (tCATs) - 0.25 CPR

Waterbury (2018ctwat):
  1. 558 (Elm City Robo Squad) - 1.17 CPR
  2. 230 (Gaelhawks) - 0.58 CPR
  3. 2067 (Apple Pi) - 0.14 CPR
  4. 4557 (FullMetal Falcons) - 0.14 CPR
  5. 237 (Black Magic Robotics) - 0.08 CPR
  6. 3461 (Operation PEACCE Robotics ) - 0.08 CPR
  7. 176 (Aces High) - 0.03 CPR
  8. 228 (GUS Robotics) - 0.03 CPR

St. Joseph (2018inmis):
  1. 135 (Penn Robotics) - 1.17 CPR
  2. 503 (Frog Force) - 0.81 CPR
  3. 1747 (Harrison Boiler Robotics) - 0.5 CPR
  4. 226 (Hammerheads) - 0.33 CPR
  5. 3572 (Wavelength) - 0.25 CPR
  6. 3494 (The Quadrangles) - 0.25 CPR
  7. 2197 (Las Pumas) - 0.14 CPR
  8. 234 (Cyber Blue) - 0.08 CPR
  9. 461 (Westside Boiler Invasion) - 0.08 CPR
  10. 1501 (Team THRUST) - 0.08 CPR
  11. 2405 (Techno Trojans) - 0.08 CPR
  12. 4272 (Maverick Boiler Robotics) - 0.08 CPR

SE Mass (2018mabri):
  1. 2648 (Infinite Loop) - 0.89 CPR
  2. 4761 (The Robockets) - 0.58 CPR
  3. 4176 (Iron Tigers) - 0.42 CPR
  4. 1735 (Green Reapers) - 0.36 CPR
  5. 78 (AIR STRIKE) - 0.33 CPR
  6. 5422 (Stormgears FRC) - 0.3 CPR
  7. 166 (Chop Shop) - 0.25 CPR
  8. 178 (The 2nd Law Enforcers) - 0.08 CPR
  9. 5112 (The Gongoliers) - 0.03 CPR

Heartland (2018mokc2):
  1. 1710 (The Ravonics Revolution) - 1.0 CPR
  2. 4499 (The Highlanders) - 0.92 CPR
  3. 1939 (THE KUHNIGITS) - 0.91 CPR
  4. 1730 (Team Driven) - 0.83 CPR

Pitt County (2018ncgre):
  1. 2642 (Pitt Pirates) - 0.97 CPR
  2. 2655 (The Flying Platypi) - 0.5 CPR
  3. 3459 (Team PyroTech) - 0.25 CPR
  4. 3737 (Roto-Raptors) - 0.17 CPR
  5. 4828 (RoboEagles) - 0.17 CPR
  6. 2059 (The Hitchhikers) - 0.08 CPR
  7. 5190 (Green Hope Falcons) - 0.06 CPR

Mount Olive (2018njfla):
  1. 1923 (The MidKnight Inventors) - 0.67 CPR
  2. 11 (MORT) - 0.58 CPR
  3. 303 (The T.E.S.T. Team) - 0.39 CPR
  4. 4575 (The Tin Mints) - 0.31 CPR
  5. 3142 (Aperture) - 0.25 CPR
  6. 1403 (Cougar Robotics) - 0.17 CPR
  7. 2016 (Mighty Monkey Wrenches) - 0.08 CPR

Westtown (2018pawch):
  1. 708 (Hatters Robotics) - 1.17 CPR
  2. 272 (Cyber-Crusaders) - 0.81 CPR
  3. 321 (RoboLancers) - 0.75 CPR
  4. 203 (SOUPer BOTS) - 0.25 CPR
  5. 433 (Firebirds) - 0.25 CPR
  6. 1640 (Sab-BOT-age) - 0.08 CPR
  7. 1712 (Dawgma) - 0.08 CPR
  8. 2729 (Storm Robotics Team) - 0.03 CPR

Greater DC co-sponsored by Micron (2018vagdc):
  1. 1885 (ILITE Robotics) - 1.88 CPR
  2. 1629 (Garrett Coalition (GaCo)) - 1.33 CPR
  3. 1111 (The Power Hawks Robotics Team) - 0.64 CPR
  4. 2537 (Space RAIDers) - 0.25 CPR
  5. 116 (Epsilon Delta) - 0.17 CPR
  6. 2199 (Robo-Lions) - 0.14 CPR
  7. 5243 (Aegis Robotics) - 0.08 CPR

Central Virginia (2018vagle):
  1. 384 (Sparky 384) - 0.75 CPR
  2. 1086 (Blue Cheese) - 0.75 CPR
  3. 836 (The RoboBees) - 0.39 CPR
  4. 401 (Copperhead Robotics) - 0.25 CPR
  5. 540 (TALON 540 ) - 0.25 CPR
  6. 339 (Kilroy Robotics) - 0.08 CPR
  7. 346 (RoboHawks) - 0.06 CPR
  8. 3361 (Governators) - 0.06 CPR

Istanbul (2018tuis):
  1. 3646 (INTEGRA) - 1.63 CPR
  2. 2905 (Sultans of Turkiye) - 0.83 CPR
  3. 4191 (IMC) - 0.75 CPR

Southern Cross (2018ausc):
  1. 4613 (Barker Redbacks) - 1.5 CPR
  2. 5985 (Project Bucephalus) - 0.75 CPR
  3. 3008 (Team Magma) - 0.5 CPR
  4. 4253 (Raid Zero) - 0.25 CPR
  5. 4537 (RoboRoos) - 0.25 CPR

ISR #3 (2018isde3):
  1. 3316 (D-Bug) - 0.58 CPR
  2. 2212 (The Spikes) - 0.5 CPR
  3. 1574 (MisCar) - 0.44 CPR
  4. 4590 (GreenBlitz) - 0.42 CPR

ISR #4 (2018isde4):
  1. 3211 (The Y Team) - 0.92 CPR
  2. 3339 (BumbleB) - 0.75 CPR
  3. 2096 (RoboActive) - 0.5 CPR
  4. 2630 (Thunderbolts) - 0.33 CPR
  5. 5951 (Makers Assemble) - 0.08 CPR
  6. 5987 (Galaxia in memory of David Zohar) - 0.08 CPR

Canadian Pacific (2018bcvi):
  1. 1868 (Space Cookies) - 1.5 CPR

I also want to touch on some information about the algorithm and why I post these predictions. First off, Chairman’s Power Rating (CPR), the metric my algorithm uses, is calculated by the following:

  1. A point value is assigned to each level and type of culture award: 1 point for Regional Chairman’s, .33 points for Regional Engineering Inspiration, .33 for District Chairman’s (1/3 a Regional Chairman’s) and .11 for District Engineering Inspiration (1/3 a Regional EI). Winning a District Championship Chairman’s or EI fills in the remaing 2/3s of the points, meaning that a team who’s won District Champs Chairman’s will have the same end points as a team that’s won Regional Chairman’s. Bonuses are added for Championship Engineering Inspiration and Championship Chairman’s Award Finalists.
  2. The team’s points for 2018, 2017, 2016, and 2015 are calculated. 2018 points are at full value, 2017 points are reduced to 75%, 2016 points are reduced to 50%, and 2015 points are reduced to 25%.
  3. The adjusted points are added together, resulting in a team’s CPR.

Any team with a CPR larger than 0 is shown on their event’s rankings.

I also wanted to touch on why I make these predictions and what they are. I feel like there was some confusion in my week 1 thread about what my intentions with this is. This algorithm isn’t, and I don’t claim it is, some catch-all magical 100% accurate predictor. I don’t claim for it to be incredibly accurate every week. Sometimes the top ranked teams don’t win anything, and sometimes the winning teams weren’t even on the list to begin with! It’s a fun project I’ve maintained mostky privately and with my team since 2016 and this year I’ve wanted to share the stats with the FRC community. This is me, a FIRST-obsessed student, just posting some numbers I cooked up that have shown success in the past and that I hope will be helpful to others.

Good luck to everyone competing this week!

Based on what I know about the teams competing at Duluth I would say the 12 teams on your list are all certainly competitors for the culture change awards. So in that sense I believe your metric to be accurate. I would be shocked if a team outside of the 6 you listed for each event took home the Chairman’s Award, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see the top team at each event walk away with the award.

Thanks for the clarification of the stats. I really appreciate you sharing these predictions publicly as it personally makes me think about what is going on during competition season overall, instead of just how my robot is doing.

I just tried to calculate the CPR of my own team, but The Blue Alliance doesn’t have all of our awards from last year listed… : /

Really? What awards aren’t listed?

At Waterbury, 1676 and 3314 can’t win Chairman’s iirc. They’re not part of the New England District.

I should clarify, it does say that we won the award in the event page, just not in our team hisory page…
PNW champs 2017. Says we won the award.

Our team award history. Says we didn’t win the award…

This I assume is because last year we didn’t qualify for the PNW championship with points. However we won EI at our district and then won EI again at PNW. As we didn’t qualify through points though, we apparently aren’t listed as attending the event… And therefore don’t have it recorded that we won EI… : /

I dont know… lol.

Yup, you’re right! Apparently some inter-district playing teams are still not being caught automatically. I’ve fixed it manually :slight_smile:

One wrinkle in the algorithm is that Team 1538 is now eligible to win Chairman’s at the San Diego Regional coming off of their 5 year hall of fame buffer period. That’s going to be an interesting Chairman’s to watch.

Unless they’ve changed their thought process since I last talked with them, I don’t believe 1538 will be submitting Chairman’s this year.